Some projections: 2010 park attendance vs. guest spending

[Dsnygirl]

I keep saying that one of these days Disney World is going to be reduced to a set of turnstiles, a dude on the other side who turns you upside down and shakes all your cash and credit cards out of your pockets, followed by another set of turnstiles.

You nailed that one, and how sad that so many of us agree...

This explains why they need unique and high quality merchandise. You don't inspire those impulse buys with generic looking merchandise that people see in all the shops. You get them with something that only exists at one place, nowhere else, and looks too good to pass up.

That is so true... I admit to being more of an impulse shopper when we're there, even though I always have a small list of special items I'm looking for. Our last trip, I can honestly say that even in my favorite spots, I was able to walk in one end, look thru the tables that used to always have the unique, seasonal items, and walk out the other end empty-handed and completely disappointed in what was there. (I am a HUGE fan of Disney at Halloween, and the difference in what was offered even from '07 to '09 was unbelievable... in '07, I could've dropped a bundle on what they had, esp. during MNSSHP. In '09?? Besides one cute shirt that was available all the time, NONE of their stuff was unique or different and the MNSSHP items? Mostly very tacky and dime-store like. I think I bought a magnet.)

I really hope Disney wakes up and smells the coffee in areas like this... I'm more than willing to travel for my "magic fix", but if it becomes more & more generic in every area, it'll be the end of something truly special.

[Mickey91]

I am a HUGE fan of Disney at Halloween, and the difference in what was offered even from '07 to '09 was unbelievable... in '07, I could've dropped a bundle on what they had, esp. during MNSSHP. In '09?? Besides one cute shirt that was available all the time, NONE of their stuff was unique or different and the MNSSHP items? Mostly very tacky and dime-store like. I think I bought a magnet.)

I really hope Disney wakes up and smells the coffee in areas like this... I'm more than willing to travel for my "magic fix", but if it becomes more & more generic in every area, it'll be the end of something truly special.

I couldn't agree more! I too am very disappointed in what was offered for Halloween this past year. I usually have just a few things on my list of must haves and in recent trips, I have left without those too.

[jetsdc]

"I'd be willing to bet that more than half of the folks visiting WDW are doing it on an extremely fixed budget. They have $x to spend on their trip and that's it. If they spend 80% of x getting there, paying for a room, etc. then they're only going to be able to spend the remaining 20% of x on food, merchandise, etc."

"If I have $3,000 to spend on vacation and $2,850 is spent on resort, tickets and food, I can barely buy everyone the poor quality t-shirt. I certainly won't be spending time in the stores looking around."

If people are truly traveling on a fixed budget, then it doesn't matter whether Disney collects it from you via tickets/room charges or merchandise, does it? By front-loading it in tickets/room charges, they're collecting that fixed amount for sure. As opposed to you paying less of the $3K for room/tickets and then "maybe" spending more at the park if you see something you like. Plus, this way, if you DO see something you like, you MIGHT splurge and go over your $3K budget.

I'm not saying I agree that this approach is best for vacationers, but it does make some sense. The argument that people on a fixed budget would spend more in the aggregate if room/ticket prices were lower is illogical; if you're on a fixed budget you'll spend what you spend. You'd just be allocating it differently.

[Ian]

Or they have not learned the lesson yet. Whoever dreamed up the lower quality + lower variety scheme might have to be fired in order to get on a new path.

I tend to think you're right and that they just haven't learned the lesson yet.

They keep manufacturing excuses for continued softness in consumer spending at the resorts, but at some point all excuses will be stripped away and they'll either have to deal with it and plan accordingly or recognize that something has to change.

[Mickey91]

"I'd be willing to bet that more than half of the folks visiting WDW are doing it on an extremely fixed budget. They have $x to spend on their trip and that's it. If they spend 80% of x getting there, paying for a room, etc. then they're only going to be able to spend the remaining 20% of x on food, merchandise, etc."

"If I have $3,000 to spend on vacation and $2,850 is spent on resort, tickets and food, I can barely buy everyone the poor quality t-shirt. I certainly won't be spending time in the stores looking around."

If people are truly traveling on a fixed budget, then it doesn't matter whether Disney collects it from you via tickets/room charges or merchandise, does it? By front-loading it in tickets/room charges, they're collecting that fixed amount for sure. As opposed to you paying less of the $3K for room/tickets and then "maybe" spending more at the park if you see something you like. Plus, this way, if you DO see something you like, you MIGHT splurge and go over your $3K budget.

I'm not saying I agree that this approach is best for vacationers, but it does make some sense. The argument that people on a fixed budget would spend more in the aggregate if room/ticket prices were lower is illogical; if you're on a fixed budget you'll spend what you spend. You'd just be allocating it differently.

But part of the speculation of late is about why the merchandise isn't selling like it used to. This would be one very big reason why. I just spent it all to get in. If you want me to buy the merchandise, let me stay and play with less of my vacation money. Give me quality and variety in the shops. But one thing is for sure, they need a new strategy. Because the current one isn't working.

[brownie]

If they're trying to wean people off the discounts, why did they extend the free dining into December?

[Ian]

"The argument that people on a fixed budget would spend more in the aggregate if room/ticket prices were lower is illogical; if you're on a fixed budget you'll spend what you spend. You'd just be allocating it differently.

Yeah, but you're assuming that every dollar spent by a traveler equates to the same profit for Disney and that isn't true.

Margin on things like food and merchandise is much higher than on park admission and hotels. In fact, I've heard some folks speculate that the vast majority of WDW's profit is generated from food and merch. Admission and hotels are barely break even enterprises.

That's why it's critical for Disney to keep food and merch spending up. It's where they drive the biggest profit to the bottom line, because selling you a $24.99 Winnie the Pooh playset that they paid some factory in China $1.49 to make equates to big bucks on the balance sheet.

[princessgirls]

That's why it's critical for Disney to keep food and merch spending up. It's where they drive the biggest profit to the bottom line, because selling you a $24.99 Winnie the Pooh playset that they paid some factory in China $1.49 to make equates to big bucks on the balance sheet.[/QUOTE]

I think I may have bought one of those back when my kids were small...LOL!!!

They want you in the PARKS to spend!!! My girls totally get this, and NO ONE spends my money faster in Disney than my two!!!
Julie

[Dsnygirl]

On the other hand, with Disney slowly attempting to wean travelers off of discounts, the analysts also expect Disney will make more money off the visitors who do show up. Janney projects guest-spending will rise 7 percent for the quarter; JP Morgan forecasts a 4 percent improvement.

Glad to see Disney's version of "weaning us" is better than I expected... with all the discounts and free dining they just released, consider me still "on the bottle"!!

I'm guessing all the reservations being made right now will help that bottom line...