Having doubts about owning DVC

[Hammer]

not to nitpick, Ham....

but this is the kind of comment i see all the time from the Saratoga "defenders"

"I've stayed there...and liked it"

That's great....but that leads me to believe that you'd rather be elsewhere and think of saratoga...your "home" as more of a fallback place.

Which seems to be the case for the vast majority of owners.

Actually, you don't really know my motivations. I am not staying at SSR this trip or the next one because my goal is to try all the DVC resorts before I do repeats. Most of my trips are for less than a week, so I usually have choice of where to stay and the location doesn't really matter to me as we always rent a car. My sister was actually disappointed that we weren't staying at SSR this trip.

I've stayed there and it was ok. Not much like the other disney locations, not much to make you yearn for it in any way after you leave. Certainly not much to plan annual visits for 45 more years (boy that sounds bad). But for me the big sticking points are the comparative point discrepancy between the 'Toga and OKW and AKV on the cheaper side and subsequently the Beach/BWV/WL for nominally more...amongst others

Like Mikki said, OKW had its point value established before Disney knew DVC was going to be so successful. Once they saw what they had, they upped the point total regardless of how many units or where it was located.

[Ian]

I'm one of those people whose home resort is SSR and is HAPPY with it, and one of those people who used to take advantage of the huge discounts to stay at the Poly.

Count me as another SSR owner who is very happy with his home resort.

We just came from a 6 night stay in a 2BR there and we loved it. In fact, my Mom joined us this time and it was her first stay at SSR. Previously, she had a negative opinion of the place, but after her stay she just raved about it.

That's great....but that leads me to believe that you'd rather be elsewhere and think of saratoga...your "home" as more of a fallback place.

Which seems to be the case for the vast majority of owners.

I know you always say that, but I totally disagree with you.

I can tell you 100% that I not only like Saratoga Springs, I love it. I think the grounds are gorgeous, the rooms are up-to-date and very clean (unlike OKW), the pool is fantastic, the spa is great, and contrary to what others think the location is solid as well. I timed our drive to MK, Epcot, and the Studios and all of them took us less than ten minutes from departure to parked.

SSR is the largest DVC resort and that's probably the #1 reason why there's availability there. Secondly, I'm not sure about you, but most people like to try out different resorts each trip. I have my favorite resorts, but even I don't go back to them every time. I like to switch things up, so yeah ... even though I love SSR that doesn't mean I'm not going to try to stay at other resorts from time to time.

Locked, I know you hate SSR, but I do find it frustrating that you continually try and pass your own opinions of the place off as A. fact and B. everyone else's opinion. You may find this hard to believe, but I'm quite certain that there are many, many SSR owners who love their home resort just like I do.

[MidnTPK]

Yeah, but you could take a stab ... I mean there's meaningful historical data available on prices for Disney hotel rooms. There's meaningful historical data on typical annual increases on DVC dues. There's an accepted annual yield (8%) that's used in most future value calculations. The taxes are a bit harder, but you could probably reasonably estimate those, too.

I think it can be done. With a ton of assumptions yes, but you could get something reasonably accurate I bet.

I have taken a stab...but I didn't save / can't find my spreadsheet. Things have gotten little crazy at work though, so it will be a few days.

Ok...so I did the analysis of DVC vs. Cash. I compared renting (from Disney as a hotel room) a 1 BR in at the BLT to buying DVC points for the same, for 7 nights annually until 2057.

Here are my assumptions:

• WDW hotel room rates will increase 2.5% a year, starting from today's $530 per night (fro a 1 BR at the BLT).
• A week in regular season will always take 238 points.
• DVC's BLT dues will start at $3.67 a point, and increase 5.5% a year.
• You can earn 5% (net of taxes) in alternative investments.

With these assumptions, staying 7 nights as a hotel room, the present value is around $108,000....meaning you could put that amount into investments today, and never have to dip into another cent of other money to cover your full week at WDW.....just withdraw that year's amount from you 'vacation account'.

Doing the same with the DVC costs around $74,700.....$26,650 today, $48,100 in dues in the future.

So over time, you'll save $33,300 of today's dollars by buying into the DVC.

The break even point, the nightly hotel room rate (today) where DVC would be just as expensive as renting from Disney, is $368 a night...a 30% discount off of rack rates. Given that 30% is about the discount that been offered this year (the worst recession since the great depression) I think its fairly safe to say that DVC will always be a better deal.

Here are some of the weaknesses of the analysis:

• With the DVC you're locked into a vacation. And a deluxe one at that. There's some (incalculable) financial value to having the option of skipping a vacation/downgrading accommodation and saving your money. If you don't think you'll be using DVC 1 BR villas 75% of the time, these numbers probably won't work out.
• DVC dues may be more expensive. But hotel rooms might be too. All you can do is make the best decision with the available information at the moment of purchase.
• A DVC stay doesn't include housekeeping. Yes, but you can put up to the legal limit in your DVC unit without added charges....whereas a hotel room will have additional charges for adults...and subject to any new fees WDW wishes to add to it's standard room rates.
• Actually finding an alternative investment that you'd be able to rely upon.

Anyway, I set up my spreadsheet to be flexible. If you think my assumptions are poor, I can re-run the numbers very easily.

[Ian]

With the DVC you're locked into a vacation. And a deluxe one at that. There's some (incalculable) financial value to having the option of skipping a vacation/downgrading accommodation and saving your money.

True, but bear in mind you aren't truly locked in to taking a vacation. Theoretically, you could rent your points in a given year and make some of your money back. In fact, at the current $11 per point rental rate (which is certain to go up over time along with everything else) you could potentially make a plan to rent your points out every so many years and make back a good portion of what you spent to join in the first place.

Now granted most people wouldn't do this, but say you bought 200 points for $100 a point (an upfront investment of $20,000). If you took 9 years out of your 50 year contract and reserved those years for renting out your points, you'd basically get all your money back in rental fees. And that's just assuming a flat $11 per point charge for the duration of the contract.

[MidnTPK]

True, but bear in mind you aren't truly locked in to taking a vacation. Theoretically, you could rent your points in a given year and make some of your money back. In fact, at the current $11 per point rental rate (which is certain to go up over time along with everything else) you could potentially make a plan to rent your points out every so many years and make back a good portion of what you spent to join in the first place.

Now granted most people wouldn't do this, but say you bought 200 points for $100 a point (an upfront investment of $20,000). If you took 9 years out of your 50 year contract and reserved those years for renting out your points, you'd basically get all your money back in rental fees. And that's just assuming a flat $11 per point charge for the duration of the contract.

Very good point. Makes that criticism of the exercise less important.

[locutus]

Lockedoutlogic--You are very right. I wish Disney treated us --the ones who invested so much--a little better. And Aurora I do have more. Three hundred to be exact, but past couple years only able to get 1 week vacation so Havent been able to use all the points.

[diz_girl]

Here are my assumptions:

• WDW hotel room rates will increase 2.5% a year, starting from today's $530 per night (fro a 1 BR at the BLT).
• A week in regular season will always take 238 points.
• DVC's BLT dues will start at $3.67 a point, and increase 5.5% a year.
• You can earn 5% (net of taxes) in alternative investments.

With these assumptions, staying 7 nights as a hotel room, the present value is around $108,000....meaning you could put that amount into investments today, and never have to dip into another cent of other money to cover your full week at WDW.....just withdraw that year's amount from you 'vacation account'.

Doing the same with the DVC costs around $74,700.....$26,650 today, $48,100 in dues in the future.

So over time, you'll save $33,300 of today's dollars by buying into the DVC.

Did you factor in 11% (or so) room occupancy tax in your calculations for staying at BLT with a cash reservation? If not, then your savings with into buying DVC are even greater.

[lockedoutlogic]

I know you always say that, but I totally disagree with you.

I understand...but we agree on most so i don't take this one too seriously

I can tell you 100% that I not only like Saratoga Springs, I love it. I think the grounds are gorgeous, the rooms are up-to-date and very clean (unlike OKW), the pool is fantastic, the spa is great, and contrary to what others think the location is solid as well. I timed our drive to MK, Epcot, and the Studios and all of them took us less than ten minutes from departure to parked.

I'm glad you like it....but you know that my issues are with this little gem did to the DVC inventory as a whole...and how Saratoga came about and what conditions it was built under....
But again....to each their own.

SSR is the largest DVC resort and that's probably the #1 reason why there's availability there. Secondly, I'm not sure about you, but most people like to try out different resorts each trip. I have my favorite resorts, but even I don't go back to them every time. I like to switch things up, so yeah ... even though I love SSR that doesn't mean I'm not going to try to stay at other resorts from time to time.

Of course you and everyone else should stay everywhere else. THAT"S THE WHOLE POINT!!!
Ian....honestly...didn't the logjam to get outta home resort become painfully obvious as Saratoga was being sold? No correlation? It's the fact that it wasn't strategically planned well. To add a full 1/3 of membership (at the time...based on unit numbers) to DVC at a location that doesn't have the adjacent gate - and was built on a failed resort location (you can look that up...it is a fact) - and was possibly the least imagineered location anywhere (arguable....but definitely one of the finalists) - and using the same facilities to a certain extent that aren't on the level of the other DVC/deluxe locations....

whatever....digress

Locked, I know you hate SSR, but I do find it frustrating that you continually try and pass your own opinions of the place off as A. fact and B. everyone else's opinion. You may find this hard to believe, but I'm quite certain that there are many, many SSR owners who love their home resort just like I do.

Are there 40,000 members in love? how about 20,000? 10,000 maybe? 5000 smitten?

guess it's anybody's guess....you can have your's and i can have mine...

Hey...like i said...we agree to disagree...i'll take the ire on this one.
But i have heard nothing that disputes my arguments....
The demand level is not up to snuff. Call member services and ask for ANY Day of the year and you can prove this one yourself. (Admit it....don't you expect them to say "I have the 1 BR in Saratoga and_____")
And the arguement of "well it's the biggest" isn't valid either. If there were 1000 rooms at Beach Club or Contemporary and 300 at Saratoga....would this "random" phenomenon shift to them? unlikely
Saratoga is the same service as OKW for the near price of Beach, et al. that is a problem - and it also debunks the whole notion that OKW was "cheap because they didn't know"...
I submit that the point values of Animal Kingdom Lodge and even Bay Lake are evidence that Saratoga's point chart is WRONG!!!
Just look at it and think about....for where you are and what you get....Saratoga is the one that stands out as the red flag....again...an opinion....but a very honest one.

I sometimes state things "too adamantly"...this is undoubtedly one of those. It's not black and white fact....it's the fact as I see them...based on alot of experience and thought.

So what i say isn't meant to be the final word....
But to be honest, i'm repeatedly being told that a pig is not a pig on this subject. And that is not what the scenario has played out to be.

We can all wait until the "newness" of Saratoga wears off and it becomes "run down" like OKW....boy then it will be a pretty picture...
...my guess

And i have a gift for everyone: no more Saratoga talk from me on this one

[MidnTPK]

Did you factor in 11% (or so) room occupancy tax in your calculations for staying at BLT with a cash reservation?

No, but I didn't include details like that for a reason.

Using a rack rate for hotel room is not that realistic. In every season but the peak of holidays, there will likely be some type of discount offered off of the rack rate.....like AAA even if nothing else is offered. That's a very common practice in the hotel industry for the past 50 or so years, so it will probably continue.

That's why I provided the breakeven daily rate...so you can see how cheap a room would have to get to make it EQUAL to a DVC equivalent. When discounted rack rate, plus taxes and fees, is below that point renting from Disney would be cheaper. But any all-in daily rate above that makes DVC the better deal.

[Ian]

locked, I guess I don't totally disagree with your assessment of the strategic decision making that went into building SSR. I can see that adding such massive inventory at a resort that was almost certain to be among the least desirable due to lack of proximity to a theme park did cause a lot of the resort hopping problems we have today.

I'm sincerely hoping, though, that the addition of the THVs may go some distance towards alleviating that problem. Hopefully, the novelty of those accomodations will be enough to get some owners with contracts at other resorts to try and swap in to SSR and also limit some of the SSR owners from swapping out.

I don't totally disagree with you, but I do think you're overly hard on the resort itself. That's where my primary points of disagreement rest.

[Aurora]

Are there 40,000 members in love? how about 20,000? 10,000 maybe? 5000 smitten?

Lockedout, you definitely have a way with words.

To go WAY back to the original post, I will try to make Locutus feel a little better about the lucky guy he ran into.

The scenario: Original poster stayed for 6 nights at a studio (I don't know exactly when; since he said he just got back let's say it was the end of August) and paid extra for the dining plan. He pays $1,400 a year in dues at Saratoga and had to pay another $611 for the dining plan for his family on this trip.

He met this lucky guy who paid $1625 for seven nights, including the dining plan, at an All-Star resort, and wound up with an upgrade to a 1-bedroom at Saratoga. Definitely a great deal.

So OP is ticked. He wants to know why this guy got more than he does for his $1,400 in dues per year.

But HE DIDN’T. Here’s why:

The lucky guy spent about $831 for his seven nights at a 1-bedroom at Saratoga just for the room ($1625 minus $791, the amount it costs for two adults, three kids on the dining plan for seven nights). Holy cow!

However, the OP owns 300 points. He used (at the most) 100 points on his most recent stay in a studio at SSR, which cost him about $460. (Saratoga dues rate of $4.6 per point.) That means the room and the dining plan for six nights cost him $1071.

But hey, you say, the first guy got to stay in a 1-bedroom for seven nights and our OP only stayed in a studio for six. But since Locutus has about 200 points left, he could use them to stay in a 1-bedroom for AT LEAST 6 more nights at the same time of year, or even more nights in September.

So actually you could argue that for that $1,400, the OP gets a six-night vacation in a 1-bedroom PLUS a six-night vacation in a studio FOR FREE.

See how you can fool with the numbers?

[Ian]

But HE DIDN’T. Here’s why:

The lucky guy spent about $831 for his seven nights at a 1-bedroom at Saratoga just for the room ($1625 minus $791, the amount it costs for two adults, three kids on the dining plan for seven nights). Holy cow!

However, the OP owns 300 points. He used (at the most) 100 points on his most recent stay in a studio at SSR, which cost him about $460. (Saratoga dues rate of $4.6 per point.) That means the room and the dining plan for six nights cost him $1071.

Okay ... I had to read this two or three times before I picked up on where your analysis misses the mark ... I knew something was off, but couldn't put my finger on it.

You only factored in the cost of his annual dues. You forget to factor in the upfront money he paid to buy his points, interest on the financing, lost opportunity cost, etc. amortized across the life of the contract.

His actual annual cost to own is probably at least two to three times the $1,400 he pays in dues. Even if he got a pretty good deal on his 300 points and only paid $80 a point, that means he spent $24,000 to buy his points. If he financed them at the standard Disney rate of 10.25% over 10 years and put down only the required 10% that means his actual cost to buy the points was around $31,000.

That means, assuming he has the full 50 years on his contract, you have to add an additional $620 per year in costs to the equation. And that doesn't count in lost opportunity cost in terms of what he could have earned on that money if he had just banked it.

If he invested the $24,000 over the 50 year period and only earned a modest 5% rate of return, compounded monthly, that would give him about $290,000 at the end of the term. Divide that by the 50 years (subtracting the original $24,000) and it comes to another $5,320 per year ($290,000 - $24,000 = $266,000 / 50 = $5,320) bring his total annual costs to approximately $7,340 per year ($1,400 a year in dues + $620 a year for points purchase and financing + $5,320 per year in lost opportunity cost).

[DVC Mike]

Hey lockedoutlogic! What is your DVC home resort?

[lockedoutlogic]

locked, I guess I don't totally disagree with your assessment of the strategic decision making that went into building SSR. I can see that adding such massive inventory at a resort that was almost certain to be among the least desirable due to lack of proximity to a theme park did cause a lot of the resort hopping problems we have today.

I'm sincerely hoping, though, that the addition of the THVs may go some distance towards alleviating that problem. Hopefully, the novelty of those accomodations will be enough to get some owners with contracts at other resorts to try and swap in to SSR and also limit some of the SSR owners from swapping out.

I don't totally disagree with you, but I do think you're overly hard on the resort itself. That's where my primary points of disagreement rest.

Well...it does need to be addressed over time or the membership on the whole is not going to be as pleased with DVC as they are now...

Since a complete redo/reconstruction of the Saratoga services area is unlikely (as they would have to shut the place down for about a year)...then i see only one path:

More DVC locations in the US to draw more people at more times away from WDW....something that probably will happen

More desirable locations at WDW....you know where i'm going with this one:
Once the Seasons gets established, it is only logical that the Poly and Grand will receive their own Villas...in time. My guess is that it will be surprising just how little time that will take. I am also a big advocate of expanding Wilderness Lodge and perhaps trying to squeeze a yacht club unit in as well...

They don't need remarkable change...my guess is a 5% reduction in demand on the Beach/Boardwalk/Wilderness/Contemp locations would do wonders for flexibility...and simply shifting the demand to new locations (contemp being the first) and decreasing demand for the older "desirables" will create a three tiered system of choices...

And i really want to see what happens when and if they sell the AKV and BLT numbers to capacity and the economy returns to a moderate level of travel spending....as right now the picture of demand is skewed by two locations that the jury is still out on....

we shall see

If you only knew the POOWWWEERRRR of the darkside!

[lockedoutlogic]

Hey lockedoutlogic! What is your DVC home resort?

I'll give you six guesses....and the first five don't count

That was simply a matter of selection...as it was the only location for sale at the time...

[Ian]

... it is only logical that the Poly and Grand will receive their own Villas...in time. My guess is that it will be surprising just how little time that will take.

Yeah, I think the conversion of a few longhouses/buildings at the Grand and Poly into DVC is a near foregone conclusion.

The cost/benefit to Disney is just too great to ignore.

[Aurora]

Okay ... I had to read this two or three times before I picked up on where your analysis misses the mark ... I knew something was off, but couldn't put my finger on it.

You only factored in the cost of his annual dues. You forget to factor in the upfront money he paid to buy his points, interest on the financing, lost opportunity cost, etc. amortized across the life of the contract.

His actual annual cost to own is probably at least two to three times the $1,400 he pays in dues. Even if he got a pretty good deal on his 300 points and only paid $80 a point, that means he spent $24,000 to buy his points. If he financed them at the standard Disney rate of 10.25% over 10 years and put down only the required 10% that means his actual cost to buy the points was around $31,000.

That means, assuming he has the full 50 years on his contract, you have to add an additional $620 per year in costs to the equation. And that doesn't count in lost opportunity cost in terms of what he could have earned on that money if he had just banked it.

If he invested the $24,000 over the 50 year period and only earned a modest 5% rate of return, compounded monthly, that would give him about $290,000 at the end of the term. Divide that by the 50 years (subtracting the original $24,000) and it comes to another $5,320 per year ($290,000 - $24,000 = $266,000 / 50 = $5,320) bring his total annual costs to approximately $7,340 per year ($1,400 a year in dues + $620 a year for points purchase and financing + $5,320 per year in lost opportunity cost).

Right. The reason I didn't do that was:

1. Because Locutus originally complained that this guy was spending "X" amount and he was spending "this much" on dues, and I wanted to point out that he got way more than just a week's stay for the dues he was paying.

2. Because comparing a decision to prepay 50 years of accommodations to this guy's one-time great deal didn't make sense. All the other posts you guys did earlier about cost vs. investment, forecasting discounts for the future, etc., had already been illuminated.

My main purpose was to point out that his original dissatisfaction didn't add up, and that his $1,400 dues for 300 points couldn't compare to one guy's weeklong stay at Disney World.

Now if dues were to go up exponentially over the next few years, I'd be the first one yelling. But so far the incremental increases have been very modest.

And even if you added in the $620 per year, that's still a very good price for a 1-bedroom, that's still less than the "lucky guy" paid for his weeklong stay.

P.S. I find the "lost opportunity" calculations always a little misty -- because there are so many variables besides just the 8 percent historical average rate of return. Which has also been discussed above.

OK, I'm getting dizzy now.

[dlpmikki]

This topic is rapidly degenerating into the pros and cons of DVC and we have separate topics for that. I've lost count of the number of times people have worked out different ways of financing - but please go check them out in the other topics rather than add them here.

To go from a value to SSR is a great move for that person but for an owner to see it happening can be somewhat frustrating. But is that enough to regret owning DVC? I think folks in this thread have been looking at why you buy DVC and then going off a bit at a tangent into the finance side and whether they like particular resorts or not.

Can we try and keep a bit tighter to what the OP posted? Thanks!

[Ian]

This topic is rapidly degenerating into the pros and cons of DVC and we have separate topics for that. I've lost count of the number of times people have worked out different ways of financing - but please go check them out in the other topics rather than add them here.

To go from a value to SSR is a great move for that person but for an owner to see it happening can be somewhat frustrating. But is that enough to regret owning DVC? I think folks in this thread have been looking at why you buy DVC and then going off a bit at a tangent into the finance side and whether they like particular resorts or not.

Can we try and keep a bit tighter to what the OP posted? Thanks!

Hmmm ... Isn't that discussion pretty much key to discussing the OP's topic, though?

It would be very difficult to refute/support his position that he's not getting value out of his membership without discussing the relative financial benefits and drawbacks of owning DVC.

[lens300]

To go from a value to SSR is a great move for that person but for an owner to see it happening can be somewhat frustrating. But is that enough to regret owning DVC? I think folks in this thread have been looking at why you buy DVC and then going off a bit at a tangent into the finance side and whether they like particular resorts or not.

I made the following post about a week ago and was surprised that nobody made any comment about it. This wouldn't make me regret buying in but it definitely leaves some questions.

I the only thing I thought of when I heard about the free upgrades to SSR was what budget is being used for upkeep of those rooms. I hope it is separate from our maintenance fees. Also since those rooms are technically paid for buy us dose DVC recieve any money from the hotel division. Some one must pay for housekeeping, pool maintenance, wear and tear in the rooms, property taxes and all other things our dues cover.
As far as I am concerned those rooms should be empty unless they are the few that are kept for rental purpose other than that there better be some funds transfered. And we should see a reduction in our dues.