Rain? What is happening now.

[wilcat]

Arriving on 09.13 and leaving on 09.19. The forecast shows rain 50-70% every day. Are these all day rains or off an on? Seems like Florida is getting a lot more rain this year and just wanted to see what we might be getting into. Our ponchos are ready to go so some rain won't stop us but all day rains may put a damper on some of our plans.

[faline]

There were a series of storms that came in off the Gulf that really hit the Tampa area hard - with some of those storms making their way as far as Disney World. Recently, the remnants of Erica came through. Fred looks like it's going to turn away and not be a problem. What I'm seeing on my phone, currently, looks like the typical forecast that says there will be a thunderstorm somewhere on each day but may or may not be where you are in Disney World.

[Strmchsr]

1.) Ignore anything further than 7 days. Model data beyond 5-7 days is worthless 2.) Ignore "fill-in-your-zip-code" weather sites. Check places where an actual human makes the forecast like one of the local TV stations, the Orlando NWS, or on our weather thread here on Intercot 3.) While most of what is showing out in "voodooland" (7 days and beyond) is the normal pop up variety storms, the models have been pretty consistent the last few days about a cold front moving in that week which could bring some more consistent, heavier rain on a day or two but you have to take that with a total grain of salt until you're under 7 days. And, of course, we're in peak hurricane season and things are pretty busy at the moment, though there's no sign of anything threatening Florida in the immediate future. And, though the Tampa area has been hit hard, most of Florida is actually under some form of drought conditions so definitely not more rain than normal this year.

[joonyer]

Significant chances of daily thunderstorms/rain is pretty much a given for Central Florida every year, from April through September. This year is not different. It's the standard weather, so just go prepared. Making it through 7 days without a downpour is an exception, not the rule. You cannot count on dry weather.

[AgentC]

I find that some of the weather forecasts especially apps always show a chance of rain until it is pretty certain that there won't be any. If I look at my local weather (Tampa area) it shows me rain every day until next Tuesday. It's not raining now but I can hear it coming it.

As an Orlando example, I was there from 9/4 through 9/7. My weather app listed 40-70% of rain every day. The only day where it rained significantly was 9/6 where it down poured from about 3-4:30 , then misted, then rained again later in the evening and then cleared.

So as everyone else has said, will you get rain? Probably. Will it be all day? Most likely, no unless a big system moves in.

[4disneynuts]

We just returned, stayed 9/2 to 9/6 and every day had a prediction of 50% to 70% chance of rain. I carried my umbrella with me every day and brought ponchos. We ended up having rain 1 hour on 1 day. There were times it looked like rain but never did. I believe 1 or 2 nights it rained during the night but other than that it was beautiful.

[TheVBs]

We were there 8/26 - 9/5 and we only had one day of really significant storms. Unfortunately, it was our water park day. We only got two hours in before everything shut down. We grabbed lunch and tried to wait it out, but it was just not clearing up. The rest of the trip we hardly saw any more rain, even though afternoon thunderstorms were forecast for every day.

[GoBlueLacheta]

There are great Radar Apps for your phone which provide much better weather than built in weather in phones or even local television which in Nashville at least is always 20-30% higher rain forecast than National as they err on the side of doom and gloom always.