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WDW Weather Forecast - September 30-Oct 16, 2013
I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:
Weather at WDW - Update Monday pm, September 30, 2013
Today looks pretty nice with a high 87-88. Tomorrow should be 86-88 with a 40% chance of a brief shower. Wednesday looks 87-89 with a 20% chance of a shower. We have some model madness going on after Wednesday. The 06z models were pretty consistently showing a tropical wave moving near Florida and flooding the peninsula with tropical moisture bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms for Thursday through Sunday. However, the 12z models have shifted the wave further west and suddenly the weekend looks much drier (which makes me happy since I'm planning on going to MNSSHP Sunday night!) Thursday still looks like there's a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms with a high 85-87. Friday through Sunday there's only a 35% chance of hit and miss showers, no consistent rain, with highs running 87-89. Monday should be 86-88 with a 40% chance of rain moving in during the afternoon with a front.
Long range...Oct 8-16 doesn't show any major rain events. Just hit and miss afternoon thunderstorms. Highs look to mostly stay in the mid 80s with some low 80s possible.
Travel Impact
No major problems today or tomorrow.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics
Tropical Storm Jerry is now on the board over the Central Atlantic; it will basically loop around this week and will remain far from land.
A wave in the Caribbean is being watched; this one, most likely, will move across the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche this week. If something does form there, and that's looking less likely, odds are high it moves into Mexico, south of Brownsville, Texas, like other systems this season. Looks like it won't be an issue for WDW like we had feared this weekend. Even without a potential tropical storm or depression WDW may face some very heavy rain towards the end of the week.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us all. Happy Anniversary!
Rhonda
Trips to WDW: Priceless
Impossible is not a word.
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Wow! Eight years! Thanks for all the weather reports. I don't leave for a trip without reading your posts first. Happy Anniversary.
#runICOT rocks!
6 years Disney running!
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Thanks for enjoying your hobbie here and helping us out with the weather for our vacations.
I noticed everyday it says a chance of thunderstorms, are those the quick ones where it lasts for 15 mins?
82 84 85 Apr00 MGV, Jan03 LTV, Sep03 ASMu, Mar04 SVR, Sept04 Pop, Sep05 SSR, Dec06 SSR, Oct07 WLV, Oct09 THV, Oct10 AKL, Oct11 AKL, Oct12 THV, Feb13 CBR, Sept13 BLT/BWV, Apr14 BLT/VB , Jun14 BCV, July14 AKL, Jan15 SSR/DCL, June15 BCV/OKW/VB, Nov15 DCL/Poly, Apr16 GF
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Happy Anniversary Chris
- Lynn -
INTERCOT Staff: Theme Parks, DVC
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Congrats on 8 years!
I always check your weather reports and prognosications a few weeks before our next WDW vacation!
June 29-July 5th-Shades of Green
Sep 2013-Port Orleans FQ
Dec 2010 Coronado Springs
Dec 2009 Pop Century
Sep 2008 POFQ
Sep 2006 POFQ
SOG Dec 2006
April 2002 All Star
May 1998 SOG
June 1993 POFQ
Disneyland-numerous times since 1966 (Last time-Jul 2012)
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Always love reading your reports, we leave in 1 week and your posts are a daily "must read". Thanks and congrats on 8 years!!
Jodie
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Originally Posted by MyDisneyworld
I noticed everyday it says a chance of thunderstorms, are those the quick ones where it lasts for 15 mins?
For the most part, yes. Probably a little longer than 15 min, but less than an hour.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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Chris, I know it's way voodoo land, but what do you think about the last week of Sept./first week of Oct.? I know it's going to be warm, but what about humidity? Is it going to be miserable? 100 degree heat index isn't going to be fun with my mature parents.
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Originally Posted by BiloxiMom
Chris, I know it's way voodoo land, but what do you think about the last week of Sept./first week of Oct.? I know it's going to be warm, but what about humidity? Is it going to be miserable? 100 degree heat index isn't going to be fun with my mature parents.
The reliable models only go out 16 days, so I have no decent data to look at beyond Sept 20. We're arriving Oct 4, so I'm a little curious about that time frame as well. The "big picture" pattern looks like humidity should be down by the first of October with highs in the low to mid 80s. October is generally a drier month when humidity levels really drop. We're already seeing some cooler air up north so I'm guessing that will begin dropping south by Oct 1. Don't look for a cold wave, but my gut right now is that it won't be too bad for you.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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That sounds awesome! I can handle hot... I do live in MS...but being out all day in that much humidity, I'd rather not. Have fun on your trip! We head out on the 4th.
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The links on turbulance dont work. i hate flying.
Ralph
1996: CB (Oct)
1997: PO (Sept)
1998: PO (Sept)
1999: Poly/BC (Aug)
2000: PO/BC (Sept)
2001: BC (Aug)
2002: BC (Aug)
2004: BC (Aug)
2004: BC (Dec)
2005: BC (June)
2006: BC (Aug)
2008: YC (Aug)
2012: YC (Sept)
2013: BC (Sept)
2014: YC (Sept)
2015: YC (Sept)
2017: YC (Sept)
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Originally Posted by RALPH
The links on turbulance dont work. i hate flying.
I had just checked those links about a month ago. Sorry they went down. I found the new site and fixed the links. They work now.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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8 days from today, I'm gonna get OUR forecast. Leave in 9 days!
1972- FW 1st WDW trip/Dad
73-79 WDW Cast(Water Craft)
1980 - 2005 - FW,ASM, PO,Poly
Sept 28-Oct 6, 2007 - DW 50th
Sept 6-19, 2009 ASM Calypso 25th Annv.
Sept 23-Oct 1, 2011. Calypso w/Dash, his 1st Disney Trip
Dec 9-19, 2012Christmas
Oct 2-14, 2013 ASM
Sep13-24. 30th Anniv. Sports
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Originally Posted by steamboat willy
8 days from today, I'm gonna get OUR forecast. Leave in 9 days!
I'm right there with you! We arrive Oct 4 so I'm anxious to get out of voodooland, too.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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Originally Posted by Strmchsr
I'm right there with you! We arrive Oct 4 so I'm anxious to get out of voodooland, too.
Wow, there is going to be a bunch of us there around that time. I'll be there October 6th-11th. Anxiously waiting for us to get out of voodooland to start my packing list...
Christine șoș
Intercot Staff-Accommodations, Dining, Guests with Special Needs
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Awesome! We'll have to make sure we meet up at some point during the week, Christine.
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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We to will be there during those dates. Has a meet date/time/place been decided!
1972- FW 1st WDW trip/Dad
73-79 WDW Cast(Water Craft)
1980 - 2005 - FW,ASM, PO,Poly
Sept 28-Oct 6, 2007 - DW 50th
Sept 6-19, 2009 ASM Calypso 25th Annv.
Sept 23-Oct 1, 2011. Calypso w/Dash, his 1st Disney Trip
Dec 9-19, 2012Christmas
Oct 2-14, 2013 ASM
Sep13-24. 30th Anniv. Sports
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Originally Posted by steamboat willy
We to will be there during those dates. Has a meet date/time/place been decided!
Not that I know of, but it sounds like we need to arrange one!
Chris, aka Strmchsr
INTERCOT Staff: Vacation Planning, Guests with Special Needs, and Weather Guru
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Thanks for the up-to-the-minute weather updates...we'll be flying out from PA tomorrow!
The weather looks like it'll be fantastic for our trip! We'll be leaving Orlando when you arrive--hope you have a wonderful time!!
I think I just used up my exclamation point quota!!!
June 29-July 5th-Shades of Green
Sep 2013-Port Orleans FQ
Dec 2010 Coronado Springs
Dec 2009 Pop Century
Sep 2008 POFQ
Sep 2006 POFQ
SOG Dec 2006
April 2002 All Star
May 1998 SOG
June 1993 POFQ
Disneyland-numerous times since 1966 (Last time-Jul 2012)
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