WDW Weather Forecast January 31-Feb 16, 2009

[Strmchsr]

Each day in January, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Saturday am, January 31, 2009
It's a crisp, cool day in WDW with lots of sun. Headed towards a high today of 58-60 with a NW wind at 10-15 mph. Tomorrow will be beautiful with a high 64-66 and a low 35-36. As for Monday, I'm looking at all available models and they all seem to have slightly different solutions. The basics are this - a low will form in the Gulf late tomorrow night and move east. At the same time a trough will dig deep into FL and across the SE. The exact positioning of this low will determine availability of moisture and rain chances for WDW. Right now there's more questions than answers. I'm going to hold to what I said yesterday as I still think it's the most likely solution. Expect a high 70-72 with afternoon thunderstorms. Tuesday will be clear, cold, and breezy. The high will 56-58 for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday's low will be 45 but Wednesday's will be 30. Then the warm up begins. Thursday through Saturday looks dry with a high on Thursday of 62-64 and a low 36-38. Friday will be 67-69 for the high with a low 40-42. Saturday will warm to 70-72 with a low 50-52.

Long range...A big ridge is building over FL out in voodooland which could mean a taste of spring for the mid part of February. Feb 8-11 looks clear with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid 50s. Rain moves in on Feb 12 dropping the high into the low 70s, but no big trough is associated with this front so it shouldn't impact temps too much. Feb 13-16 then remains clear with highs staying in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.

Travel Impact
Confidence remains high a major winter storm will impact parts of the eastern U.S. early next week. Looks like mostly rain for the major east coast cities (Washington, Philadelphia, New York City, Boston, etc), but the Appalachians will be hammered with heavy snow, perhaps exceeding one foot in places. Cities like Pittsburgh will have some serious snow. There could also be some snow across the SE - AL, MS, TN, and GA. We'll just have to see how things develop. No snow for WDW, though. You have to go to MVMCP to see that.

No delays at 7:30 am CST. It looks like the best delay potential both today and tomorrow will remain NYC north along the east coast and around the Great Lakes.

[homeschool mom]

WOW!!!! I wish I were going to WDW. It's mighty cold here in PA! BRRRRRRRRR!

[handmaidenofprincesses]

It's 9 degrees here in CT (with wind chill) and snowing so I don't care if it does drop down to the 60s, I'm headed down to Disney Sunday with short sleeved shirts and capris!

[teambricker04]

Thanks! We will keep watching! We are hoping for little or no rain for the marathon... send it on it's way

[BethieTink]

Even though it is out in voodooland, it is always so good to see your dates listed in the forecast (16th-19th). Hopefully, the high 70s and low 80s will hold for us. It is awfully cold here in Boston right now. Only 13 more days!! WOOHOO!!

[irish1967]

Thanks! We will keep watching! We are hoping for little or no rain for the marathon... send it on it's way

Glad to see that it is looking more like shorts weather for our marathon visit as well...

Have a great trip Strmchsr!

[teambricker04]

Glad to see that it is looking more like shorts weather for our marathon visit as well...

Agreed... although, now I think I am going to pack everyone's entire closet Oh well!!!

Have a fun trip Strmchsr!!!

[threeh]

Hurrah!!! Almost time for my forcast 1/24 - 2/1. Thank you stormchaser!!!! forcast anything warmer than lake effect snow for Orlando and I'll be pleased as punch, ok and no rain too!!!
I'm going to try to add this to my facebook profile.....

[threeh]

If you forsee any problems 1/23-1/24 in the Pittsburgh area of PA could you let me know?? I am debating leaving for the airport Friday night and staying over or just driving down on Sat. PIT is about 1.5 hours away and the flight is 11am. I just hate driving in snow. I dunno if your crystal ball gets any reception over NW PA. Thanks

[Strmchsr]

If you forsee any problems 1/23-1/24 in the Pittsburgh area of PA could you let me know?? I am debating leaving for the airport Friday night and staying over or just driving down on Sat. PIT is about 1.5 hours away and the flight is 11am. I just hate driving in snow. I dunno if your crystal ball gets any reception over NW PA. Thanks

I'm still at the conference and don't have time to do a full forecast, but I just quickly glanced at the models. This is WAY into voodooland, so is obviously subject to change, but right now it looks like PA could be in for snow showers on Jan 23-24. Nothing horrible, but if you don't like driving in snow it could be. I'll refine that as we get closer to time. Full forecast on Saturday.

[threeh]

Light snow is ok, thank you so so much!!! Keep the good news coming

[fairestoneofall]

Thanks....taking a break from packing right now. Leaving bright and early Sat. morning for WDW!

[Strmchsr]

Hey, everyone. I'm finally back. Sorry for the break in the forecasts. Good conference, though, and the forecast stayed right on, which is a good thing. I hate surprises in the forecast when I'm not there to change it.

[stitchaholic]

yah,clear skies for our arrival,i hope it stays warm and clear for the rest of that week!

[threeh]

Thanks storm chaser. I like what you are telling me for Orlando. Thanks a bunch. I am getting pounded with lake effect snow so this totally cheers me up for being in the florida sun in 2 weeks!!

[BiloxiMom]

What are our chances for nice weather (warm) weather the last week (1/34-1/31?) No snow flurries or frigid temps! Please!

[Dsnygirl]

Thanks storm chaser. I like what you are telling me for Orlando. Thanks a bunch. I am getting pounded with lake effect snow so this totally cheers me up for being in the florida sun in 2 weeks!!

Me, too... and we'll be there in 2 weeks, too! Are you by any chance in Upstate NY???

(and I had to ask, b/c I LOVE your "location" in the volvo... too funny... ... and I'm a L&D nurse at night, too... how's that for coincidence??)

[threeh]

Hi Disney girl. I am about 40 miles south of lake erie (in PA, a small town called Guys Mills)when I am not riding around in Edward Cullen's car. ANother labor room nurse, cool. Some of my best friends are labor nurses!!!
Nice to meet you!!!
We will be at BWV 1/24-2/1. How about you??


Sorry for hijacking your wether thread storm chaser.

[Strmchsr]

Sorry for hijacking your wether thread storm chaser.

Occasional thread hijacking is allowed to meet new friends.

[Dsnygirl]

Hi Disney girl. I am about 40 miles south of lake erie (in PA, a small town called Guys Mills)when I am not riding around in Edward Cullen's car. ANother labor room nurse, cool. Some of my best friends are labor nurses!!!
Nice to meet you!!!
We will be at BWV 1/24-2/1. How about you??


Sorry for hijacking your wether thread storm chaser.

I had a feeling you were somewhere up here near me... gotta love the lake effect snow... NOT!!

I'm actually travelling w/ three of my labor & delivery nurse friends... we'll be at ASMusic the 22nd-26th. Lucky you at the BWV!

(thanks, Chris, for not minding the min hijack! )