WDW Weather Forecast - October 31-Nov 16, 2016

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Monday pm, October 31, 2016
Happy Halloween!

It certainly doesn't feel very fall-like today with a high around 85, but a change is coming later in the week. No rain through at least Thursday. Highs for tomorrow through Thursday will stay 83-85. On Friday a front will move through and some light rain is possible, but there won't be any heavy or long-lasting showers. The high on Friday will be around 80 and dropping once the front passes. Saturday through Monday looks dry with a high 73-75 on Saturday, 75-77 on Sunday, and 78-80 on Monday.

Long range...Nov 8-16 currently looks dry but all the models are indicating a pattern flip by mid-November that could mean a cooler and wetter latter half of the month. Highs should stay around 80 for Nov 8-12 then mid 70s for Nov 13-15 and mid 60s for Nov 16.

Travel Issues
No major issues today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
Hurricane season continues for another month but all is quiet for the foreseeable future. The only thing of interest is a "medicane" - a large storm with tropical-storm like features in the Mediterranean Sea - which is impacting some of the Greek Isles today and is headed east.

[VWL Mom]

Welcome back!

[Hammer]

I slacked off a bit this last week while I was at WDW in providing weather updates. Kept meaning to post a "live" weather report from there, but was wiped out by the end of the day! I will say, I wasn't that impressed at the weather forecasts from the local TV stations. They lacked in providing details on possible scenarios for storms. I arrived back here in Philadelphia and had more detail on possible paths for Hurricane Matthew from my local station.

[Strmchsr]

It's unfortunate, but finding decent weather information can be difficult sometimes. Because Orlando has such consistent weather and not much in the way of extremes except during the potential tropical storm season they don't put much stock in having solid weather people. I definitely appreciated all your help while I was out of touch!

[WiltonJohn]

Chris,

What are your thoughts on Nicole's tracks relative to WDW in the next 14 days or so? Mainstream press is saying it is now officially a hurricane. Are models saying it might track toward the FLorida coast? Heading there shortly.

And thanks again for the work you do in keeping the Intercot family informed on this weather stuff.

best,

.....................john

[Strmchsr]

What are your thoughts on Nicole's tracks relative to WDW in the next 14 days or so? Mainstream press is saying it is now officially a hurricane. Are models saying it might track toward the FLorida coast? Heading there shortly.

Thanks, John. Nichole is no threat to Florida. It is a threat to Bermuda but after hitting there will move out to sea. The concern for Florida is from something that hasn't even materialized yet. Several of the models are hinting at a potential hurricane forming in the Caribbean in 7-10 days and then moving into the Gulf, which could potentially threaten Florida. But that's pure voodoo right now. There's no low or wave to track, just model data. So, for now, there's nothing to worry about. Just phantom storms being shown by models. If a low pops up in the Caribbean in about a week, then we'll need to pay closer attention.

[WiltonJohn]

Chris,

Thanks for your input. Hoping that low does not show up

best,

.................john

[jenperich]

We're arriving to Orlando on Nov 25. I hope all those models are wrong and it's not too cool. Coming from NH, we're really hoping for nice warm weather. Here's hoping!

[Strmchsr]

Understandable. Of course, for those of us in Florida we're sick of the heat and are looking forward to some cooler temps!