WDW Weather Forecast - June 29-July 15, 2016

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Wednesday pm, June 29, 2016
Look for a high of 92 today with storms developing. Tomorrow and Friday highs will run 92-94 with a 60% chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Saturday through Wednesday highs will drop back to 91-93 with a 50-50 shot at a sea breeze thunderstorm moving through in the afternoon. In other words, perfectly normal July weather.

Long range...July 7-15 for the most part looks like normal summer weather. Not too hot. Highs in the low 90s with a decent chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. The models are showing a strong ridge developing in the July 13 or so time frame, which would mean mid to upper 90s, but that's total voodoo right now.

Travel Issues
Delays in Seattle today with low clouds. No major issues tomorrow, but there could be spotty problems around SC, NC, VA, and DC as well as MO, IA, and IL.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
All is quiet and nothing is expected to form through the holiday weekend.

[Strmchsr]

Since we have a potential tropical storm next week to impact WDW and we're into hurricane season, if you want to know WDW's policy for tropical weather click here.

For a tropical storm, like what's expected on Tuesday, all outdoor or partially outdoor attractions will be closed (Dumbo, Test Track, 7 Dwarves coaster, Safari, etc). Adjust your fast passes accordingly. A tropical storm generally doesn't shut down anything else unless it's extremely strong. A hurricane is a different animal and is taken on a case by case basis as to when they shut down and when they reopen. The good news is WDW is well prepared for this. They know how to treat their guests and generally the impact doesn't last more than a day or two.

First of all, keep in mind that Walt Disney World opened in October 1971. That means it has been open 45 years – just over 16,000 operating days - and in all that time it’s only had to shut down 5 times so your chance of having your vacation interrupted is very slight. The first time this happened was with Hurricane Floyd in 1999. That’s 18 years with no closures. It happened again on 9/11/01 due to the fear of further terrorist attacks, twice in 2004 for Hurricanes Frances and Charley, and then in 2005 for Hurricane Wilma. None of these closures lasted more than a day or two. I hope less than 10 total days out of 16,000 helps you rest a little easier.

If a storm is heading towards Orlando it’s a monstrous operation to shut WDW down. Here’s the process:
Phase 5 (Monitoring Storm Possible) - Review current plan, checklists and business recovery plans. Review personnel and resource availability for the ride-out crew. Verify contact numbers and emergency data. Prepare WDW Emergency Operations Center for activation.

Phase 4 (Storm likely within 24–36 hrs) - General readiness imposed. Brief personnel. Review checklists. Consider possible shut down of long lead operations and not starting extended operations. Limited activation and staffing of WDW Emergency Operations Center.

Phase 3 (Storm probable within 12–24 hrs) - Intensify clean up and tie down. Prepare for phase 2 activity. Selected ride-out crew personnel given the opportunity to secure their personal property. Turn in excess radios and vehicles. WDW Emergency Operations Center opens and is fully staffed. Note: Generally this is when the WDW Emergency Operations Center, command centers, and command posts will be fully activated. However, this is an Executive Policy Team decision.

Phase 2 (Storm impending) - Magic Kingdom, Epcot, Disney MGM Studios, Animal Kingdom and Downtown Disney close. Guest campground trailers removed and secured by the guests. Scheduled hotel and campground guests notified of conditions. Complete all clean up and tie down short of shutdown. Authorized ride-out families move to pre-designated shelters. Ride-out crew fully staffed at start of phase 1 or as directed by the WDW Emergency Operations Center. Personnel not in ride-out crew released as soon as possible.

Phase 1 (Storm imminent, take shelter) - Shutdown all activities and immediately take shelter. Fulfill ride-out requirement plans.

Post Storm Phase - Command Centers submit situation reports to WDW Emergency Operations Center. Establish business resumption / recovery schedule. Notify employees through media and cast Member emergency lines of call back as directed by WDW Emergency Operations Center.

[Hammer]

Since I decided to make a last minute trip to WDW for Friday afternoon- Sunday as a treat to myself after finishing closing on my parents' condo in Clearwater, glad to see the weather will be typical Florida summer weather. According to the Philadelphia meteorologists, though, it may be stormy for my departure Thursday evening to Tampa.

[Strmchsr]

Unfortunately, Thursday does look mostly wet with some thunderstorms possible. Hopefully it won't cause you a delay. Once you're out of the Philly area it should be smooth flying to Florida.