WDW Weather Forecast - May 31-June 16, 2016

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Tuesday pm, May 31, 2016
Look for a high around 91 today with a 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. And keep in mind in meteorlological terms, when I say "40% chance" it basically means there's almost a 100% chance that storms will form but only 40% of the forecast area will see one. It's coverage percentage more than a chance this will happen percentage. And not much will change from now through Tuesday. The models keep trying to bring up some disturbance from the Caribbean but across the board they show it getting caught up by a front on Monday and swept out to sea with no impact for WDW. So, look for pop up afternoon thunderstorms each day but no organized rain. And temps will stay pretty consistent at 90-92 for tomorrow through Tuesday. We could see a drop in humidity on Wednesday, and maybe a degree or two drop in temps, but nothing significant.

Long range...June 8-10 is more of the same with pop up thunderstorms each afternoon and highs around 90. June 11 is interesting as we have a new feature out in voodooland. Looks like a little low forms in the Gulf and then moves over the Florida peninsula on June 11. This looks like maybe a tropical depression so heavy rain would be possible but not much more. Then on June 12-13 a rather strong looking front for this time of the year moves in with thunderstorms and some cooler temps (maybe mid 80s). June 14-16 is normal with highs around 90 and scattered afternoon thunderstorms. On both the idea of the depression and the front you need to take both with a pretty big grain of salt. This is voodooland, after all. Phantom storms form all the time out in voodooland and the front doesn't really fit the climatology for this time of the year. Normally they fizzle out well before Florida. Not impossible, and the GFS has been consistent about the idea of the trough over the eastern US next week, but not overly likely either.

Travel Issues
Minor delays in Dallas today. The most likely issues tomorrow appear to be around WI, IL and MI.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
The remnants of short-lived tropical storm Bonnie continue to hang out near the Carolina coast with occasional bursts of limited convection taking place. Right now, conditions just aren’t very favorable for regeneration to occur, especially considering that water temps are marginal at best in the vicinity of the remnant low. However, its presence does mean the chance for heavy, but spotty, rain will persist over the next few days across parts of North and South Carolina, especially the immediate coast. In addition, the risk of rip currents still exists. The low is forecast by the major models to slowly move out by the end of the week.

[williabt]

What are you thinking specifically for Sunday June 5th? Just the usual pop up afternoon storm or anything more significant? That's our obs day at the parks before leaving on a cruise and I'm desperately hoping for good weather (I can handle the usual 30 minute afternoon downpour).

Thanks in advance.
I've followed your weather forecasts for wdw for years and you've always been spot on!

[Strmchsr]

I don't see anything that should cause you concern. The front that is trying to push southward will stall out over AL/GA and won't impact WDW. So I don't think you'll have any issues beyond the normal pop up afternoon storms. Obviously if anything changes I'll be keeping you up to date.

[williabt]

I don't see anything that should cause you concern. The front that is trying to push southward will stall out over AL/GA and won't impact WDW. So I don't think you'll have any issues beyond the normal pop up afternoon storms. Obviously if anything changes I'll be keeping you up to date.

This made my day!!!!! I have been totally stressing about the weather.
Thanks for all you do!

[Strmchsr]

My pleasure! No need to stress at all. Just keep checking in here and I'll keep you up to date. Just remember the thread will change tomorrow (June 1) as I post a new thread each month. It'll still be stickied at the top.