WDW Weather Forecast - March 30-April 15, 2016

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Wednesday pm, March 30, 2016
WDW is looking at a high of 82-83 today with mostly sunny skies. Tomorrow and Friday looks mostly okay for WDW. Scattered thunderstorms are possible, but no major rain. The high tomorrow will be around 85 then 88-90 for Friday. The front has slowed down enough that the temps should soar and that will give extra instability for the afternoon thunderstorms to pop. Saturday the front finally starts to move in. The high will be 82-84 with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely by afternoon. Sunday things should clear up pretty quickly with a high 75-77. It's not out of the question for a stray shower to still be around in the morning, depending upon how quickly the front moves through, but conditions should be mostly dry. Monday through Wednesday should all be dry with a high of 75-77 on Monday, 78-80 on Tuesday and 82-84 on Wednesday.

Long range...April 7-8 look dry with highs in the mid 80s. Showers come in on April 9 with a front. April 10-12 is dry with highs in the low to mid 80s then strong thunderstorms arrive on April 13. April 14-15 dry out with highs in the upper 70s.

Travel Issues
Let me say the whole point of this blog is to focus on the weather at WDW and potential impacts getting there so I don't spend much time on anywhere else, but I do have a Facebook page entitled "Methodist Meteorologist" so if you want more detailed weather analysis for the rest of the country, you can like that page and always feel free to ask if you have questions about your specific location. For today, we have delays in Dallas today due to thunderstorms. For tomorrow, the SPC has an enhanced (level 3) risk over pretty much all but the most southern part of MS and a slight (level 2) risk over AL, western TN and KY and the southern most part of IN. The marginal threat (level 1) for tomorrow covers the FL panhandle, all of GA, SC, NC, eastern TN and KY, Oh, IL, IN, LA, and AR.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[Mitzie]

Chris I am so sorry to hear about your wife. Please know that I will keep you both in my prayers. I have Lupus and I had a stroke when I was 33.

[Faver]

Thank you so much for still taking time to do this weather report!

[WDWFanatic]

Chris,

I am so sorry to hear about your wife's stroke. I will keep your family in my prayers and I hope she is able to make a full recovery. Best wishes.

[SurferStitch]

I am so sorry to hear about your wife! I hope she recovers quickly and is feeling better soon.

[missastrocat]

Hi Chris,

I hope your wife is continuing to do better. I had a question about this forecast. My friend doesn't know the "magic" you have behind your forecast, and instead relies on her intellicast forecast. She sees that the later part of this week will be in the upper 80s, whereas you have low 80s.. Can you help me "calm" her down about the heat? I told her your forecast was always more correct as it has a human behind it...

Thanks!

[Strmchsr]

Thanks, Laura. My wife is continuing to improve. Still no change in her vision. We're hoping that will eventually come back, but all other areas are doing better.

So, Intellicast, like all the "fill-in-your-zipcode" sites is nothing but 1 model plugging in computer generated numbers. Humans have no input. There's a strong high pressure ridge building over Florida and the Deep South for most of this week. Were this a couple of more months along then upper 80s to around 90 would be likely with this kind of high. But human forecasts take all factors into account. In this case, the water surrounding Florida on both sides is still pretty cool and that will keep the atmosphere cooler and keep the temps in the low 80s instead of upper. Also, the location of the high will drag some slightly cooler air down. All of that together will keep the highs from getting out of control. Intellicast and those apps are good for checking radar and maybe 1 or 2 day forecasts, but beyond that they're pretty worthless.

[missastrocat]

Thank you! I love how you explained this. I figured they just pulled from a computer generated model but wanted to be sure I was correct. Now I have even more facts! Hoping the storm on Saturday isn't too bad and doesn't wash us out.