WDW Weather Forecast - August 31-Sept 16, 2015

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Sunday pm, August 30, 2015
It's hard to believe, but tomorrow marks 10 years of me doing the mostly daily WDW weather forecast here on Intercot. I started this because of Hurricane Katrina and all the questions that came with that and it developed into just doing a daily forecast for Intercot. Time flies.

The high today will be 87-88. Right now things are clear but more showers and storms could develop later this afternoon. For tomorrow look for a high 90-92 with a 60% chance of a thunderstorm. Definitely not an all day rain though as the impact from Erika will be lessening considerably. Wednesday through Monday highs will hang around 90, give or take a degree, with a 50-50 shot of thunderstorms moving through each afternoon. In general, it's the storms that determine the final high temp. If they develop and move through earlier the high will be lower. If they don't develop or move through later then you could see a high up to 92 or 93. And since I am arriving with my family on Sunday we're just excited to be there no matter the weather!

Long range...Sept 8-16 doesn't look much different. Highs upper 80s to low 90s with a good chance of a pop up storm each afternoon. The models are still trying to bring a front south by the end of the forecast period but they're flipping back and forth from run to run as to whether it makes it. In general I would assume no. It's a little early for that strong of a front to arrive. Give it another 2-3 weeks.

Travel Issues
No major issues today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
The remnants of Erika have been written off and beyond some heavy rain will no longer be an issue.

Fred in the far eastern Atlantic is now a category one hurricane near the Cape Verde Islands. It will move northwest in coming days, and should weaken later this week as it encounters dry air and and shear. No threat to the U.S. as it stays out to sea.

And, finally, the rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet again, though some of the models do try to stir something up in the Gulf in about 10 days. That's total voodoo, though.

[jakeybake]

Thanks Chris,

My weather search has begun. We are there from 8/19-8/27. We go each year so I know the drill but still fun to keep an eye out!!

Looking forward to reading up each day!

Jay

[dlpmikki]

I'm watching this with interest as I am driving from WDW to St Petes on Thursday 13 so am hoping it is not going to be heavy rain!

[Strmchsr]

I'm watching this with interest as I am driving from WDW to St Petes on Thursday 13 so am hoping it is not going to be heavy rain!

The afternoon models today are keeping the front next week up closer to I-10 and not as much of an issue for Orlando and Tampa. We'll have to see if it stays the case but from a climatological standpoint that makes sense. Fronts rarely make it to Orlando in August.

[mydisneygirls]

Going August 22 - 30th. I'm glad we won't get that 105 heat index like we did last year!! Thanks for the great forecast Chris!!!!!!

[WiltonJohn]

As departure looms... watching this more closely now.

Wanted to say a big THANK YOU for the weather updates, Chris. Much appreciated.

best,

...............john

[TheVBs]

Thank you Chris! We leave in the morning so I've been keeping an eye on your reports.

[ShinynewJB]

Thanks for a great thread! I will be keeping an eye on it, as we are there from 8/29 to 9/12.

Does there seem to be a higher chance of rain than usual for this time of year? We always go this time of year, so expect the daily short downpour (last time was August/September 2011). However, when I looked at the forecast recently, there seems to be a very high chance of rain all day? Maybe I'm being paranoid!

Cheers,
James.

[Strmchsr]

Does there seem to be a higher chance of rain than usual for this time of year? We always go this time of year, so expect the daily short downpour (last time was August/September 2011). However, when I looked at the forecast recently, there seems to be a very high chance of rain all day? Maybe I'm being paranoid!

No, it's pretty normal in terms of rainfall. Just daily stuff from the sea breeze. The only fly in the ointment we have to watch very carefully is Erika which could be a threat to Florida. I'll bring a full update on that this afternoon but make sure to keep a check on that since you'll be there during the potential impact time next week.

[ShinynewJB]

Cheers, Chris - I'll keep an eye on it.

[Mitzie]

I am not headed to Florida for another month yet but I still love to read your weather post Chris! You are always my first stop on things like Erika. Thanks for taking the time to keep us all posted.

[Jen C.]

Hi Chris!

We arrive Sunday a.m. We are prepared for rain Sun, Mon, Tue. Do you think it will be an all day soaking? Anxious to hear your thoughts! Thanks!

[WDW&MK]

Hi Chris,
First, thank you so much for the time that you put into these weather reports. I watch them every year before I head down and am so greatful for them!! Living in WI, the weather reports I see for FL just look like it rains all the time.

Wondering if you have any thoughts on flights into Orlando this coming week? We are scheduled to fly in on Tuesday morning arriving about 11:00 am. If there is just a lot of rain, do you think that flights will be affected? I am just asking for a guess, I know you don't have a crystal ball :-)
Thank you very much!!
Kari

[Strmchsr]

Hi Chris!

We arrive Sunday a.m. We are prepared for rain Sun, Mon, Tue. Do you think it will be an all day soaking? Anxious to hear your thoughts! Thanks!

Hey, Jen. Just finished the update. No, I don't think it will be an all day soaking even if Erika rides right up the Florida peninsula. There will be clear periods interspersed with periods of torrential downpours. Umbrellas will be useless, but ponchos should be fine. Just make sure you're wearing flip flops or some shoes you don't mind getting wet! This will all depend on the final track, which is still unknown. It's completely possible WDW gets nothing. Check back tomorrow and I'll have a much better idea of what's going to happen. Have a wonderful trip!

[Strmchsr]

Wondering if you have any thoughts on flights into Orlando this coming week? We are scheduled to fly in on Tuesday morning arriving about 11:00 am. If there is just a lot of rain, do you think that flights will be affected? I am just asking for a guess, I know you don't have a crystal ball :-)
Thank you very much!!
Kari

Hi, Kari! Thanks. I'm happy to provide this service for Intercot. I hope you have a wonderful trip. I would say there's potential for delays on Tuesday, but you should still be able to get in. Right now I don't think the remnants of Erika at that point would be strong enough to cause cancellations. There will be clear times in between the rain. I'll have a clearer picture tomorrow but as for now I think you'll be able to get in on Tuesday. Just the Hurricane Policy FAQ I just posted in the Vacation Planning forum just in case you have any issues.

[WDW&MK]

Thanks so much!!! I appreciate it!! I'll keep watching over the next couple of days too!

[momof3+twins]

We will be driving....stopping in Chattanoga area Tuesday night. Then finishing the trip Wednesday morning-afternoon. Do you see any impact in GA on Wednesday that we need to be worried about ( of course, IF it does go the direction that the models show)? THANKS!!!!!

[Strmchsr]

We will be driving....stopping in Chattanoga area Tuesday night. Then finishing the trip Wednesday morning-afternoon. Do you see any impact in GA on Wednesday that we need to be worried about ( of course, IF it does go the direction that the models show)? THANKS!!!!!

No significant impact. If the storm follows its current path you could run into some heavy rains in GA or northern FL but nothing too bad.

[AgentC]

We made sure our generator worked last night and bought extra propane for the grill. This morning Erika was no longer a threat. Works every time.

[VWL Mom]

We made sure our generator worked last night and bought extra propane for the grill. This morning Erika was no longer a threat. Works every time.

I've found this works equally well for snow