WDW Weather Forecast - May 30-June 14, 2014

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Friday pm, May 30, 2014
Once again the high will be near 88 with afternoon thunderstorms firing up. Tomorrow and Sunday highs will again be 85-87 with a good chance of a thunderstorm in the afternoon. Monday and Tuesday highs will be 83-85 with sea breeze thunderstorms continuing to pop up in the afternoon. Wednesday and Thursday the chance of afternoon showers is still there, but those chances decrease some with a little less humidity. The high will be 85-87. Now, it's interesting to note that a couple of models have Wednesday through Friday staying in the 70s as a backdoor front moves in. We'll have to keep an eye on that but for now I'm staying with the warmer temps. Friday will be around 85 with a good chance of a brief thunderstorm.

Long range...June 7-8 look pretty stormy as a tropical storm moves into Tampa and then across central Florida. Keep in mind this is all voodoo until a storm actually forms. June 9-14 highs stay in the mid 80s with a good chance of a sea breeze thunderstorm each afternoon.

Travel Impact
Minor delays in Chicago today due to high winds. No major issues tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
The GFS continues to develop some type of tropical feature in the Gulf of Mexico toward the end of the week with the Euro (ECMWF) doing the same thing. That's the two most reliable models giving the same solution. Both models leave it meandering around in the Gulf out to at least 240 hours with weak steering currents. Seems like a decent chance it becomes our first depression or storm of the season, but it remains to be seen if it will impact WDW. For the past couple of days the models bring the storm in near Tampa, which would have a significant impact on WDW but until the storm actually forms there's no telling where it might end up.

[tinksmom02]

Chris, when you say "some rain" is possible for May 12, do you mean the 20-minute FL storm shower, or "it's going to rain for most of the day" rain? I know it's still far enough out to change, but other, less-reliable reports are saying 80% chance of rain for that day, and I was wondering if that meant the every day shower, or way more.

[Strmchsr]

Well, until tomorrow it's technically voodooland, but with this evening's models it looks more like hit and miss showers on Monday. It's not the summer-pop up type. It's associated with an approaching front, but the models are showing the front washing out and the showers being much more scattered rather than a consistent rain band. We'll begin to get a better picture tomorrow.

[tinksmom02]

Thanks, Chris--will be watching this thread VERY carefully over the next few days! Monday is our first full day at Universal--haven't experienced any rain there yet so that might be our "something new" for this trip!

[Strmchsr]

Monday is our first day at Universal, too, so I have a rather vested interest in the forecast as well.

[ChipDale2708]

Monday the 12th is my Wild Africa Trek tour in the morning. Please keep the rain away - I'll be watching carefully over this week.

[tinksmom02]

Looks better--hoping those percentages go down even more over the next few days!

[MushuGrl]

It makes me happy that we're getting close enough for our personal Strmchsr forecast! It's been four years since I've gotten the pleasure of stalking this thread!

[Strmchsr]

It makes me happy that we're getting close enough for our personal Strmchsr forecast! It's been four years since I've gotten the pleasure of stalking this thread!

Welcome back!