WDW Weather Forecast - May 31-June 16, 2013

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Friday pm, May 31, 2013
The high today is trying to make it to the 86-87 range, but thunderstorms are starting to fire up and may keep things down a little bit. Tomorrow through Friday will sound a lot like a broken record - highs 87-89 with a good chance of scattered thunderstorms firing up every afternoon. You'll have about a 40% chance of one moving over you at WDW. When they do move over they won't last long (usually less than an hour) but they can be pretty intense so it's best to go inside and hang out.

Long range...June 8-16 shows highs in the mid to upper 80s with a 50-50 chance of an afternoon thunderstorm each day. You can see the details below but the afternoon model run today no longer shows Orlando impacted by the tropical system next week. That can change in the next run, but that's what it's showing for now.

Travel Impact
Yet another “moderate risk” of severe weather for parts of Oklahoma today, but this will be their last severe weather day for a while. A “slight risk” extends from near Childress, Texas to Chicago as the active convective pattern across the nation’s mid-section continues. Thunderstorms, and potentially severe weather, will be possible tomorrow over TX, LA, MS, AR, TN, AL, MO, KY IL, IN, MI, and OH.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
Looks like the remnants of East Pacific Hurricane Barbara, now on the Gulf Coast of Mexico in the far southern Bay of Campeche, will drift westward back over land, so re-development is not likely. However, the 00z and 06z GFS developed a tropical storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moved it into Florida in the June 7-8 time frame. the 00z was near Cedar Key while the 06z was back west near Panama City. Either of those options would mean pretty heavy rain for Orlando, but nothing major. However, the 12z run shows only a fairly weak tropical depression moving across southern Florida with no impact on Orlando at all. As I said yesterday, the models will continue to flip flop on this and it'll be Monday, at the earliest, before I can say with any confidence what will happen.

[Figment104]

Yea, I'm finally in long rang/voodoland!!! So nice to hear as of right now it's looking like "normal" for this time, since last time we went in May it was in 2009 when a tropical depression stalled out over central FL! Woo Hoo. Hopefully the forecast stays like this!

[tinksmom02]

I love when my trip is in your forecast!!

I haven't been following the weather down there too closely--yet--but my ex-husband was supposed to be going to some kind of conference in FL this weekend (May 3) that is in the process of being rescheduled due to the weather.

[Strmchsr]

I'm with y'all. I get excited when my trip comes into voodooland, too. May 11-18!! Almost there.

[tinksmom02]

I'm with y'all. I get excited when my trip comes into voodooland, too. May 11-18!! Almost there.

We're there May 10-13!

[Strmchsr]

Well maybe I'll catch you down there.

[Figment104]

I'm with y'all. I get excited when my trip comes into voodooland, too. May 11-18!! Almost there.

We'll be there the exact same dates!!!

[Strmchsr]

We'll be there the exact same dates!!!

Awesome! Maybe we'll see you down there, too. We're headed down on the 10th so that we're good to go on the 11th.

[Nascfan]

I'm with y'all. I get excited when my trip comes into voodooland, too. May 11-18!! Almost there.

We fly in the 10th a.m. and out the 18th evening! So excited, and love seeing our trip dates in there too, even if out in voodooland. Thanks Chris, maybe we'll see you there!

[Strmchsr]

I hope so Scott!

[Dewdrop034]

YAY!! May 13 thru 20 here!! I'm in the Voodoo Land club too.

[GoofyFan]

As are we! May 14th through 20th!

[Ksmith75]

I am in voodoo land too! Going for a quick 3 day weekend...Couldn't wait until our November trip!!!! Hubby and I will be celebrating our 7 year anniversary when we are there in 10 days!!!!!

[Figment104]

Chris are the scattered showers you talk about on Sunday and Monday the afternoon type, or do you think it'll be more through out the day?

Thanks!

[MOJoe]

It's early May and it's still cold and wet here in MO. It snowed this past weekend at Springfield, where my #1 son is in college. So i am in desperate need of some warm temps in WDW when i arrive on the 20th!

See what you can do with that voodoo, Chris!

[Strmchsr]

Chris are the scattered showers you talk about on Sunday and Monday the afternoon type, or do you think it'll be more through out the day?

Sunday looks like more throughout the day and Monday more in the afternoon.

See what you can do with that voodoo, Chris!

I'm in public relations, not management, but I'll try to put in a good word for you.

[MOJoe]

Thanks for the info Chris. Maybe while you are at AK, you can pick up your 3D glasses and become an honorary bug. You know what they say, if you can't beat them, join them!

[Strmchsr]

Thanks for the info Chris. Maybe while you are at AK, you can pick up your 3D glasses and become an honorary bug. You know what they say, if you can't beat them, join them!

lol, good idea. Funnily enough, DAK has been the most "bug free" of the parks so far. The flies are around, but not NEARLY as bad as at the other three parks.

[Ksmith75]

Thanks for the weather updates. We are down here too and spent most of the day at Star Wars weekends too.

[Sweetpea29488]

Just read your forecast and I'm a little worried. We'll be at WDW June 2-8th. All I can do is plan and hope for the best. Thanks for keeping us updated.