WDW Weather Forecast - September 30-Oct 16, 2012

[nat]

Just want to say thanks Chris, I have been following this thread for over a week! We leave in three days!!! DH wants to know where I am getting all this great info on the weather!!! You have it all over the "other " weather websites!!!

[lawgirl]

Thanks so much for all the updates! We leave Saturday morning! So, no hurricanes this trip? And no 100 degree weather either...thank goodness!

[Strmchsr]

You have it all over the "other " weather websites!!!

Thank you for your kind words. I'm glad to help everyone I can.

So, no hurricanes this trip? And no 100 degree weather either...thank goodness!

I think I can say with total certainty - no hurricanes this trip and no 100 degree days. It should be pretty nice for you.

[lawgirl]

Thank you for your kind words. I'm glad to help everyone I can.



I think I can say with total certainty - no hurricanes this trip and no 100 degree days. It should be pretty nice for you.

Awesome! You just made my day!

[BiloxiMom]

With a check in date only 20 days away (Oct. 11) do you think we'll catch a break and have cooler weather in place by then? Not liking the 90's with high humidity... not. at. all. And thanks for always taking care of us weather-worryers.

[Strmchsr]

With a check in date only 20 days away (Oct. 11) do you think we'll catch a break and have cooler weather in place by then?

You definitely won't have any 90s. Those are mostly gone now except for the heat index. The issue of the humidity is a little harder. It just depends on whether a good cold front dives far enough south to bring some drier continental air. And that's certainly possible. Not out of the question at all!

[BiloxiMom]

YAY! Any lower humidity, lower temps would be great! See what you can do, OK? LOL

[Strmchsr]

YAY! Any lower humidity, lower temps would be great! See what you can do, OK? LOL

I'll make sure to forward your request to the Boss.

[Dyanna]

According to accuweather it looks like 75% chance of rain the entire week were at WDW (Oct 5 - 13). Ugh. Is this an all day rain or chance of? I know it still to early but its not looking good so far.

[Strmchsr]

According to accuweather it looks like 75% chance of rain the entire week were at WDW (Oct 5 - 13). Ugh. Is this an all day rain or chance of? I know it still to early but its not looking good so far.

1.) Accuweather is a waste of time beyond 24-48 hours. It's only computer generated algorithms based on 1 model with no human interaction, so don't worry about that.
2.) Even my forecast beyond 7 days has to be taken with many grains of salt. It's the process of diminishing returns. By the time the models get 7+ days out the variables are almost infinite and so no forecast is truly reliable. We can see overall patterns, but not a true day-to-day forecast.
3.) So, looking at that long range right now, that forecast sounds 100% completely off. I'd say a 50-50 chance at most of a brief (1 hour or less) afternoon thunderstorm. Those are pretty common in Florida (almost daily May-October) as the sea breeze forms in the afternoon but they aren't a big deal. Just go inside for a little while and you're fine. At the moment I see no sign of any big rain event that you would have to worry about. October is generally a pretty warm and dry month so unless something tropical moves in I think you'll be fine.

[Dyanna]

Thanks for the reply :-) Will keep looking at your updates as it get closer to our trip. If it does rain at least the lines wont be as long

[DisneyDawgette]

Now in Voodooland territory! Would it be unwise to be hoping that temps drop some closer to the 10th?

[Strmchsr]

Now in Voodooland territory! Would it be unwise to be hoping that temps drop some closer to the 10th?

It's not out of the question. Just because the flow looks zonal on the models today doesn't mean it won't show a trough developing tomorrow!

[Wolf]

Thanks StrmChsr!! Heading out tomorrow and wanted to do a last min check here to plan, ponchos in bag but otherwise packed shorts and tshirts! Thanks for all you do!!

[Strmchsr]

Have a great trip!

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

Oh goodness! Our dates are actually in voodoo land now! Oct 14 is our check-in day. I'm so stalking this thread!

[disneynarula]

Thanks for the informative update. We are going to MNNSHP on the 16th. Crossing my fingers that your Voodooland estimations turn out to be correct!