WDW Weather Forecast - April 30-May 16, 2012

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Monday pm, April 30, 2012
The high today will be 87-88 as our string of warm days continues. We have an interesting little feature popping up in the Florida Keys. It looks like a low will develop and bring a lot of rain to south Florida. However, everything I see right now indicates that rain will stay south and west of Orlando. I'll definitely let you know if that changes. I don't see any real rain chance at all through the weekend. Highs will run 86-88 with lows 67-69. A weak front pushes into Florida on Monday. There are some indications it could fire up a few scattered thunderstorms, but that's right at the edge of voodooland, so a little early to say for sure.

Long range...May 8-9 should drop back to the low 80s with the frontal passage. The models are showing a weak front moving through with light, scattered showers on May 10, which will put highs upper 70s to 80 for May 10-11, then a stronger front moves through on May 12 with a few more scattered thunderstorms. None of these days looks like all day rain and, obviously, this is voodooland so there could be no rain at all, but the models are staying pretty consistent with this pattern change by mid-May. May 13-14 should be in the mid to upper 70s then low 80s for May 15-16. If that turns out to be the case, I'll be ecstatic. The last two times I've gone in May we've had low to mid 90s.

Travel Impact
Everything is clear for now, though some thunderstorms could cause problems in the Ohio River Valley tonight. For tomorrow, the best chance for delays will be over MN, WI, and IA.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[WDWFanatic]

Thanks for always keeping us updated Chris. I'm loving the voodooland. Hopefully it stays that way.

[BedknobsandBroomsticks]

My mom (who now exclusively goes by memom), her grandchildren given name, is going with us. She is 76. She ambulates well but lets face it, she isn't running any marathons. She tires easily and has aches etc. I was wondering, can you rent an Ecv for the week like a stroller? We want to make sure she has one for the parks. She will be fine everywhere else. Thanks for any tips/advice

[Strmchsr]

I was wondering, can you rent an Ecv for the week like a stroller?

You absolutely can. It's obscenely expensive to rent one through WDW, though. I would suggest you go with Apple Scooter. They have the best rates and service.

[WDWFanatic]

Do you think it will be an all day rain event on the 19th? Time to put the umbrella up over the parks .

Where would you go for a rainy day? One of the WDW parks, Sea World or Busch Gardens?

Thanks.

[Strmchsr]

Do you think it will be an all day rain event on the 19th?

My best guess would be no, but that's hard to say right now. From what I'm seeing on all the models, I'm thinking 4-5 hours of rain is likely, but that's still right on the verge of voodooland, so take that idea with a grain of salt for the moment. In 2-3 days I'll have a better idea.

As for where to go, I would eliminate Busch Gardens. Sea World is iffy. MK and Epcot are my favorites on a rainy day. Both have plenty to do even in the rain and you can move in and out of buildings quickly. Also, I've found rainy days usually produce lower crowds and you can get a lot done if you don't let a little rain stop you.

[Ruprect]

Hey Chris...

We're arriving sometime on Sunday and I was wondering what you're seeing for the thunderstorms/rain that will be around for the weekend. Is this something where the front could move out quicker and clear everything up in the afternoon or is it likely to stick around all day?

[Strmchsr]

Right now my thoughts are that it will be a morning/early afternoon event and then clear out later in the day on Sunday. It's really hard to gauge the speed of these lows until they actually form, but right now I think you can expect clearing later in the day.

[Ruprect]

That works. I think the plan is to arrive between 11 and 12, get some lunch and then head to DHS. Either way it's better than gearing up for work the next day.

Thanks

[eandrsmom]

Thanks for the updates! We'll be there April 28 thru May 5. I'm hoping that your forecast stays the same. When we were there two years ago the first week of May, they were breaking record high temps. I'm hoping that we won't have a repeat of that!

[Dopey's Girl]

Yeah! My dates are coming out of voodoo land! Thanks for all your work on this!

[luvDaMouse]

I am in the process of packing, we are checking in Thurs the 26th. You say weather will be in the upper 80's which is perfect how is humidity? I know there is always a chance of pop up rain showers, but is the humidity low right now? I am there till Monday the 30th!
Thanks!
Dana