WDW Weather Forecast - January 31-Feb 16, 2012

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Tuesday am, January 31, 2012
Another beautiful day today with a high around 75. Tomorrow will get near 80 with a very slight chance of a brief pop up afternoon shower. A weak front will move in on Thursday. The high should be 75-77. The rain chance won't be huge. The NAM actually shows nothing but a few sprinkles. The GFS shows a few more scattered showers. Right now I lean more towards the NAM solution. Either way, this won't be a big rain event. The front won't have much impact and Friday through Sunday the highs should be 78-80, then 76-78 for Monday. The next chance of rain comes on Tuesday, which should have a high of 75. Again, this event doesn't look like much of anything. Just a few widely scattered showers. The high over Florida is pushing all rain events to the north.

Long range...Feb 8-10 looks completely dry with highs in the mid to upper 70s. A strong front looks like it'll move in on Feb 11 with thunderstorms. That said, I don't really like the look of this front and I imagine it'll be gone on the next model run or two. The models are being incredibly inconsistent, but it looks like a very real possibility some much colder air might come south around the middle of the month. Alaska is suffering through a brutally cold winter and eventually that air will move south. Feb 12-13 might see highs around 60 with lows in the upper 30s. Feb 14 should stay clear and warm into the upper 60s, then to around 70 for Feb 15-16.

Travel Impact
No big issues today. For tomorrow, there is a slight chance of delays over Texas, but nothing major.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[DisneyorBust]

Thanks Chris!
I will be following your forecasts closely, not yet though still "voodoo land " as we are scheduled to arrive on the 10th.

[Strmchsr]

Well, Eric, the start of your vacation leaves voodooland tomorrow so it's getting closer!

[TinkerbellT421]

Strmchaser, any idea of what it will look like for the 21st - 28th yet or too early? I'm getting anxious lol

[Strmchsr]

Strmchaser, any idea of what it will look like for the 21st - 28th yet or too early? I'm getting anxious lol

Too early right now. The general pattern seems to be mild with occasional cold snaps, but it's too uncertain to give any specifics. Give it 3-4 more days and the picture should start to become clearer.

[TinkerbellT421]

Too early right now. The general pattern seems to be mild with occasional cold snaps, but it's too uncertain to give any specifics. Give it 3-4 more days and the picture should start to become clearer.

Great thank you DBF was asking me to post that, he is about as anxious as I am.

[ChewyStriker]

I'll be waiting anxiously too! We leave 28th for the world and will be there through Feb. 1! Would LOVE temps near 70.

[Jared]

Hey Chris,

How bad are we looking for Jan. 11? Thanks for all your hard work!

[Strmchsr]

How bad are we looking for Jan. 11?

Jared, right now I don't see any signs of heavy rain or severe weather. Looks like just off and on normal rain showers through the day. Not a constant, but enough you'll need a poncho most of the day. Of course, that's right on the cusp of voodooland, so the timing and intensity might change over the next couple of days, but most models seem pretty sold on the idea of rain coming.

[First Time to Florida]

We are going to be at Disney from Jan 12-19 and would like to take one day and see the ocean. I'm curious what to expect for weather at Cocoa Beach. Is there activity at the beach year round?

[disneyfan328]

so we are leaving friday the 6th and staying until the 16th and Its looking like mostly 60's - 70's which is great i'll take it over the 20's & 30's here in pgh. How wet is next wednesday looking? are we talking all day rain? or just some showers? we've never been this time of year before so we are trying to pack and I'm thinking jeans and t's with some sweatshirts and maybe a pair of shorts or 2?

any help or advice is appreciated.

[disneyfan328]

oops sorry I should have read up a few posts it looks like off and on showers throughout the day? I won't be able to check after friday morning because I won't have internet access so again any advice is appreciated.

[Strmchsr]

oops sorry I should have read up a few posts it looks like off and on showers throughout the day? I won't be able to check after friday morning because I won't have internet access so again any advice is appreciated.

I still don't think it will be an all day rain. The models have sped it up some this morning. We'll see if that trend continues on the afternoon run. If that's the case the rain would be out by early afternoon. You'll definitely want jeans that day and a sweatshirt or something warm up top. You'll also want a good poncho. With a poncho in hand you can still enjoy the parks quite a lot on a rainy day. There will be periods of heavy rain, but it looks mostly like light, scattered showers. Check this afternoon for an update with all the model runs.

[Jared]

Looks like the middle and end of next week won't be all that bad then. So I can stop worrying now, Chris?

[DisneyorBust]

As always, thanks Chris!
It looks like I need to return to my attic, I'm an optimist so I didn't grab the ponchos. Lucky for us, we can depend on your expertise, so off I go for the poncho's!

[Strmchsr]

It looks like I need to return to my attic, I'm an optimist so I didn't grab the ponchos. Lucky for us, we can depend on your expertise, so off I go for the poncho's!

Keep that optimism, Eric. Maybe the front will pick up a little steam and be out before the park opens. It's definitely possible!

[Jared]

Keep that optimism, Eric. Maybe the front will pick up a little steam and be out before the park opens. It's definitely possible!

That's what I like to hear. My flight's supposed to land a little before noon on the 11th. Hope there's no weather-related problems!

[Strmchsr]

That's what I like to hear. My flight's supposed to land a little before noon on the 11th. Hope there's no weather-related problems!

Right now I don't expect any weather-related delays regardless. Even if it's raining it doesn't look like the rain would be significant enough to interfere with your plane. Expect a little turbulence, though from Atlanta south since you'll be flying right along the front.

[moobear67]

I'm praying for nice weather on the 20th-23rd!!!

[mouseketeer mom]

Ok Chris, this is my nightmare, that it would be cold and warm alternating days Jan into Feb., and stormy too. Ugh. This packing is a beast.