WDW Weather Forecast - August 31-Sept 16, 2011

[Strmchsr]

Hope you have a great trip, Julie! Right now it looks like you'll be okay. As always, things can change - especially further than a week out, but the overall pattern right now would say that any Atlantic storm will either recurve away from the US or will be pushed south and west into Mexico or (possibly) Texas. At the moment I don't foresee any tropical issues for Florida for the next couple of weeks, but keep checking!

[princessgirls]

I'll keep checking!! As you say...it's voodoo land!!

Just as long as Jim Cantore isn't reporting live from the Pop Century Resort....It's all going to be good!!!

Julie

[mickeyman42]

So for this first big storm, what's the most likely scenario at this point? Headed for the gulf? Arriving aug 25 for a week and don't need any issues with arrivals or departures! Tell me we'll be fine!

[Strmchsr]

First off, keep in mind it's all voodoo right now. Until a storm actually forms, there's no telling what it will do. However, the two most likely scenarios right now would be 1.) it moves through the southern Caribbean and pops up in the Gulf of Mexico heads for TX/LA/MS. 2.) It curves back out into the Atlantic. Of the two, the Gulf track seems more likely at the moment, but that will depend on how everything shakes out next week.

Neither scenario would create much of an impact for WDW. The Gulf scenario would bring a few thunderstorms, but nothing major. The only way the Atlantic version would impact you is if it came up to the Maritime provinces. However, the current storm track, if it curved back into the Atlantic, should carry it away from all coastlines. There is a slim chance it could hit Florida, but, for now, that doesn't look too likely so I would say relax and I'll keep you posted as details emerge.

[mickeyman42]

Ok great, thanks, I look forward to your updates and find them to be the most accurate to follow. Keep doing what your doing, have a great day!

[mickeyman42]

so are there 2 systems moving in next week? you said the 22-24 up top, then in the tropics section it was the 26/27

[Strmchsr]

No, one system. It'll be moving through the Caribbean towards Florida in the 22-24 time frame with a potential for impact Aug 26-27. The models tonight are the same as this afternoon with the hurricane brushing the Florida coast on Aug 26. That would definitely bring impact to WDW, but not as bad as if WDW were on the eastern side of the storm.

[mickeyman42]

So sticking with what I know best which is jumping the gun, we arrive on the 25th and have a rental car. So lets assume major impact on the 26th, would we be able to drive to a resort ADR if the parks closed? Or would there potentially be an Orlando curfew bounding us to the resort? As long as we arrive issue free on the 25th I'm not concerned about missing a day at the parks, it's still wdw

[wolfhog]

We're arriving on the 24th - 6 of us at the Pop Century. I see they have cancellation policies but what is their policy when you are already on site?

p.s. Some years ago we stayed at the BW in Downtown Disney during a Cat 1 hurricane. We just had to stay in the rooms until the all clear was given - interesting to say the least.

[mickeyman42]

When we had hurricane igor, cat 1,here last year it devastated the infrastructure around the province, but I was out in it getting a pump for the basement, everything was open, wasnt that bad really. would it take more than a 1 to shut wdw down? Hope so

[Strmchsr]

If you are already at the resorts, the CMs will take very good care of you. They generally provide games and help with making the time as fun as possible.

In the 40 years of WDW it has only closed a grand total of 7 days, and it's only been closed more than 1 day once. IF the storm hits on the 26th, I would expect you to be able to return to the parks on the 27th.

As for the resort ADR, it would depend on the severity of the storm, but I would imagine you would be resort bound for at least a few hours. It would depend, also, on the time of day the main part of the storm hit.

[mickeyman42]

Hi Chris, with the speed that "Irene" is traveling at, is there a chance that this thing moves in before friday of next week? we are arriving thursday at 1 pm.

[Strmchsr]

Hi Chris, with the speed that "Irene" is traveling at, is there a chance that this thing moves in before friday of next week? we are arriving thursday at 1 pm.

Right now I don't think so. It still looks like Irene should get tangled up over Hispanolia which will slow her up considerably, and, honestly, will determine her eventual track - Gulf or East Coast runner. Hispanolia has torn apart many storms before which causes them to go where we didn't expect, so that will be the big thing to watch.

I guess I should say, for your planning purposes, that it's not out of the question, but not extremely likely that she would arrive with significant impact before Friday.

[BugeyedMuggy]

Thanks for the info on Irene. We were going to WDW on Thursday nite for the weekend as long as Irene doesn't make it a washout. You mentioned Hispaniola having an impact on the storm going even further east. Do you know when we will learn more about that as we need to do some cancelling and rebooking by Monday nite or Tuesday AM. Thanks.

[Strmchsr]

Do you know when we will learn more about that as we need to do some cancelling and rebooking by Monday nite or Tuesday AM. Thanks.

I think we should have a pretty clear idea by late tomorrow about where Irene will end up, but it might be Tuesday morning or early afternoon before we know fully how Hispaniola will impact Irene. I'll definitely update as often as there is anything to update.

[BugeyedMuggy]

Thanks alot Chris. You were right for us last year and we keep a close eye on your forecasts.

[mickeyman42]

Hi Chris would you expect to see any travel issues from Irene as early as thursday?

[Strmchsr]

Hi Chris would you expect to see any travel issues from Irene as early as thursday?

Right now it doesn't look like the travel issues would be significant, if anything. It really depends on when on Thursday. The later in the day, the greater the possibility of a delay. The current official track puts Irene only about 150 miles SE of Orlando at 1 am on Friday. The feeder bands from a Cat 2 hurricane stretch out much further than that. So, I think we'll begin to see thunderstorms from the feeder bands beginning late Thursday afternoon. However, those shouldn't cause cancellations. Just potential delays. And even those should be minor. I expect major delays and flight cancellations on Friday, though. If she speeds up, Thursday will be more of an issue, but right now I think you'll be okay and just need to be prepared to stay in rooms/shelter most or all of Friday.

[mickeyman42]

Great scheduled to arrive at mco at 1:09 pm on Thursday

[Strmchsr]

Unless Irene speeds up (which is not out of the question, but not too likely) I think you'll be okay with that time.