WDW Weather Forecast - October 31-Nov 16, 2010

[wdwcarrie]

Any thoughts on whether flights will be able to get out of Milwaukee on Wednesday morning? We are flying out of Milwaukee around 9 am on 10/27 for a long weekend, coming back 10/31 in the morning! It looks like winds may be a factor. Thanks for any info!

[Mitzie]

Our flight is scheduled to fly out of Grand Rapids MI at 5:50 pm. on Wed. Right now they are under a wind advisory starting Tues. morning through Wed. evening. The advisory says winds up through 50 mph, maby alittle higher. Can we expect a delay?

[Strmchsr]

Any thoughts on whether flights will be able to get out of Milwaukee on Wednesday morning?

Yes, flights will be able to get out, but I think you might encounter some delays. Looks like the worst weather for you will be tomorrow with things calming down by tomorrow evening. The worst winds will also be tomorrow. Wednesday will still be pretty windy, but not as bad as Tuesday. So, be prepared for a delay, but you should be able to get out with no problem. Expect a bumpy ride, though, and read my links on turbulence so that you're prepared!

Our flight is scheduled to fly out of Grand Rapids MI at 5:50 pm. on Wed. Can we expect a delay?

You're in a similar situation to what I mentioned above. The winds will still be whipping around pretty good by Wednesday evening, so delays are definitely a likelihood. I think your flight will get out, but winds could cause some issues. I also recommend you read the links on turbulence as your ride could be pretty exciting.

To put what you're facing in perspective, let me do a little explanation. High winds aren't necessarily a problem for airplanes and are often encountered, so high winds by themselves don't always mean delays.

Gusty, variable winds are the problem. Once at crusing altitude, those winds can blow you around and create a rather exciting ride, but they aren't an issue for the flight safety of the airplane. Closer to the ground during take-off and landing is the issue since a strong wind could cause the plane to veer off course. Even a very strong wind isn't really an issue as long as its steady and blowing mostly parallel to the runway. The problem comes with either crosswinds, which the airplane can compensate for to some degree, or gusty winds, which are the most dangerous. I'm telling you that because the winds should be mostly out of the SW. Even though they are strong, as long as the gusts don't occur too frequently then delays shouldn't be a big deal. If the gusts kick up, that's when you might see delays.

[Mitzie]

Ok, so a delay...that poses it's own problem in that we fly into Baltimore and have a 50 min. layover. That flight goes into Orlando. Will Airtran hold that flight for us...I can't imagine they would. (That is the last Airtran flight to MCO that day) If we miss our connecting flight, will Airtran put us on another airline or do we wait till their first flight out the next morning...help, kind of a novice with this. THEN...if we end up spending the night in Baltimore, will Disney refund our night's stay at BWI? Stressing out here.

[Strmchsr]

It depends on the length of the delay. My guess is it won't be too long of a delay, but it's impossible to say right now. If you're landing as your connecting flight is ready to take off, they might hold it for 5-10 min. That would probably mean you might make it, but your luggage wouldn't so I would suggest you have a change of clothing in your carry-on.

If you miss the flight and that's the last one out for the day, they usually will put you on the first available in the morning. Sometimes they will connect you via another airline. I'm not sure specifically about Airtran's policy. I would suggest you go ahead and call Airtran's customer service today and ask them these very questions so that you will know what to expect.

As for WDW refunding, usually they don't (that's why they encourage people to have travel insurance) but it would be worth asking. At the very least, call WDW and let them know what's going on if you miss your flight so that they don't assume you a "no show" and cancel your reservation all together.

When you find out something, post back and let me know so that we'll know in the future if someone asks about Airtran.

[Mitzie]

Ok, taking a deep breath here. I will let IPO know what is going on. We did purchase insurance, so not sure how that plays in. I will call Airtran this afternoon. Thanks for the advise.

[Strmchsr]

Ok, taking a deep breath here.

Definitely. It's all going to be okay. Hopefully none of this will be an issue for you and your flight will get off with no problem. However, just in case, you'll have all of your info and won't have to worry at the last second.

[Mitzie]

I spoke with Omer from IPO, who has been wonderful by the way, and he said that since we purchased the insurance we would get that nights stay refunded. He mentioned we needed to call the desk at BWI as soon as we knew we wouldn't make it so they didn't cancel the whole thing and he gave me that number.

Airtran: Spoke to David with customer service and he said that Airtran would try and accommodate us. That could mean a later flight with them or another carrier. He mentioned that the Airtran desk at the Grand Rapids airport would be the main point of information as they would have first hand knowledge of the situation.

Either way, I am just praying that it is not an issue and all goes well.

[Strmchsr]

Either way, I am just praying that it is not an issue and all goes well.

I will do the same. Thanks for the update. I hope you have a wonderful trip!

[wdwcarrie]

Thanks for the info. Your updates are so helpful--I truly appreciate it!

[Mitzie]

Wow Chris, it is a little crazy up here in northern Indiana. I was beginning to think Richard decided to drop by here for a visit. So far Grand Rapids airport isn't showing delays so here is hoping tomorrow evening that is the case.

[Strmchsr]

Wow Chris, it is a little crazy up here in northern Indiana. I was beginning to think Richard decided to drop by here for a visit. So far Grand Rapids airport isn't showing delays so here is hoping tomorrow evening that is the case.

No doubt! You guys are under a high risk for severe weather. The SPC doesn't issue those very often. Looks like a very good chance of tornadoes across IN and parts of KY today, so ya'll be careful. The good news for tomorrow is that it still looks like the wind will be fairly consistent. As long as it is consistently out of the SW, as is forecast for the time your plane leaves, you'll be okay. The problem would be if the winds started swirling or became very gusty. Right now that does not look to be the case. So, the winds will be very strong tomorrow evening (sustained 25-30 mph) but nothing the planes can't handle. Delays are possible, but not definite.

[Mitzie]

Yep just spent about 2 hours in a storm situation with students. We had tornado warnings and sirens going off multiple times. All is just windy now with clouds and light rain. Temp. dropped quiet abit.

[BklynChick]

Chris, thank you so much for your forecasts! I found them very helpful (and reassuring) as I planned for our October trip. The weather turned out perfect, with not a drop of rain the entire trip!

[Strmchsr]

Chris, thank you so much for your forecasts! I found them very helpful (and reassuring) as I planned for our October trip. The weather turned out perfect, with not a drop of rain the entire trip!

Excellent! I'm so glad you had a good trip.

[tundramom]

Chris thanks for the extended forecast- We will be in the world 11/5-11/14 and I'm packing some warmer gear after reading your report!

[Strmchsr]

Chris thanks for the extended forecast- We will be in the world 11/5-11/14 and I'm packing some warmer gear after reading your report!

Good idea to be prepared, but keep checking as the long range often changes from day to day. I think it's likely it'll be cooler at the end of this week, especially in the evenings and mornings, so you'll want to bring layers so you can take off to keep comfortable as it warms during the day.

[Running_Bell]

I know I shouldn't panic... yet. But, looking at accuweather's 15 day forecast, it shows Nov 11-16 RAIN... no partly cloudy, no isolated anything... just RAIN.

I know it's far ahead, but we're staying in the tent the week of November 12-21

is there something going on... all days before it are partly sunny... then bam? any advice?

[HeadFairyInCharge]

Stormchaser.... Whats up with the Nov 15th outlook You can see activity that far in advance..?
We arrive that day...hoping this hurricane blows through gently with a little rain needed in the area. Do you really think it will bring colder air in for November 15th thru 20th ?? I was hoping for mid 70's maybe 80 since its been historically that way. Last visit was Dec 5-13th 2008 and was a little cold for swimming in pools but nice for the parks ...only got one huge rainy day but way to cold for Florida in Early December...
Give me an update on November 15 to 20th when you see something....hoping for warmer air not colder....I will leave that here in NJ !!

[Strmchsr]

is there something going on... all days before it are partly sunny... then bam? any advice?

Two things - 1.) Accuweather uses 1 computer model and absolutely no human interaction. All the fill-in-your-zip code sites are like that. Those sites are notoriously inaccurate, especially in the long range. 2.) Anything beyond 7 days is a guess, not a forecast, even for humans and it's not that good for the computers. I'll give a full update this afternoon, but right now the only rain chance I see during those dates is a cold front moving in on either Nov 15 or 16 which cold bring rain and thunderstorms.

Give me an update on November 15 to 20th when you see something....hoping for warmer air not colder....I will leave that here in NJ !!

Right now the long range models only go through Nov 18, and I'll give a full update through that far this afternoon. For now, though, it looks like Nov 15-16 might be around 80 then a cold front moves in on Nov 16 and drops the temps a little for Nov 17-18, but I'll have to study that more closely this afternoon to see how much of a drop. Keep in mind, anything beyond 7 days is more of looking at patterns than an actual forecast.