WDW Weather Forecast - October 31-Nov 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in October, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, Oct 31, 2010
Happy Halloween!! I hope you have safe and fun one!

The high should top off at 86 today and tomorrow. Isolated showers will become possible for Tuesday and Wednesday with a high 82-84 for Tuesday and 80-82 for Wednesday. There's no major rain here, just the possibility of a stray shower or a few clouds. Thursday looks like a rain will be a good possibility at some point, especially in the morning, and the high will be 75-77. Friday and Saturday look clear with highs around 70 and lows 46-48. Sunday should be 72-74 with a low around 50.

Long range...Nov 8-9 stays dry and in the mid 70s for highs with lows 50s for lows. Nov 10-14 warms to around 80, give or take a couple of degrees. Nov 15 looks pretty stormy as a front moves through. Nov 16 clears out with a high in the mid 60s.

Travel Impact
At 12:30 pm CDT, no major issues. For tomorrow, some delays will be possible over eastern TX.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
Shary is finished and no need to worry about that storm any longer.

Hurricane Tomas looks a little weaker today with a decrease in thunderstorms around the center and its eye is no longer apparent. The system is probably encountering a little bit of an increase in wind shear and some dry air and may be undergoing eye wall replacement. I expect it to strengthen back soon. Top winds are 90 mph. The hurricane is about 180 miles west of St. Lucia, moving WNW at 9 mph. It will turn more westward or even west southwestward over the next couple of days. It is still expected to increase in intensify in the 3-5 day time frame and could become a Cat 3-4 hurricane. Tomas is expected to be south of Puerto Rico tonight and Hispaniola Monday night. It will slow down as steering currents weaken. It could even meander for a couple of days. It is expected to make a sharp turn to the north and northeast later this week and exit the Caribbean somewhere between eastern Cuba and Hispaniola. This will bring the threat of flooding rains as well as intense winds and surge flooding to some places that don’t need it, including Haiti. However, the models are currently in good agreement that Tomas will not be a threat to WDW.

Click here for Disney's 2010 hurricane policy.

[jnfr2424]

Thanks for the wonderful updates Stormchaser! We will be in the world on Friday and looking forward to the sunny weather

[Strmchsr]

Have a great trip!

[Belster]

Thanks for the updates!! We are there from 10/22-10/31 hope the weather looks great for that week.

We are sooooooooo excited!

[Strmchsr]

Thanks for the updates!! We are there from 10/22-10/31 hope the weather looks great for that week.

We are sooooooooo excited!

Right now we're just getting into that time frame, but for theme moment it looks like the end of October will continue the pattern of mostly dry with temps at, or a little below, normal.

[brivers222]

Next week looks amazing! and all clear for the drive down started in the evening TONIGHT!!!


thanks for the constant updates

[Strmchsr]

Next week looks amazing! and all clear for the drive down started in the evening TONIGHT!!!

Have a safe and magical trip!

[Cinderelley]

Thanks for the heads up on turbulence on an airplane being like a ship on the water. At one point the right side of our plane dropped while the left didn't. It totally freaked me out at first, until I remembered what you said and how the ship on our last cruise was leaning in the rough seas.

[Scar]

Oct 24 a cold front moves in bringing some rain and a high in the upper 70s. October 25-27 highs drop into the low 70s with lows in the low 50s. Of course that's voodoo right now, but it looks like the pattern is definitely changing towards cooler weather for the end of the month.

This is great news if this holds up.

Last year this week was record high heat and humidity and it was boarderline unbearable for this Scandinavian.

[Strmchsr]

This is great news if this holds up.

We never can tell with voodooland, but I think things will be considerably more comfortable for you this year. Hope you have a great trip, brother!

Thanks for the heads up on turbulence on an airplane being like a ship on the water. At one point the right side of our plane dropped while the left didn't. It totally freaked me out at first, until I remembered what you said and how the ship on our last cruise was leaning in the rough seas.

I'm so glad that tip helped! A little knowledge truly goes a long way in helping make you feel more comfortable.

[disneydear]

Thanks for the new update. We leave in the morning, looks like we'll have great weather. Just hoping we don't have any airport delays as we are leaving from Providence, RI

[Strmchsr]

Just hoping we don't have any airport delays as we are leaving from Providence, RI

Best guess right now is that you'll be okay on the delay front. Thunderstorms should be south of you. That said, expect a bit of turbulence on your flight. Check the section on turbulence under "travel" in the forecast post for some helpful tips. Save travels and I hope you have a magical trip!

[MinnieMommie]

ok Chris - we are leaving 10/23 and heading back home 10/30. Please see what you can do in the way of a perfect forecast. My family and I will be looking for your updates each day and we'll wait for a week out to pack.

[disneydear]

Best guess right now is that you'll be okay on the delay front. Thunderstorms should be south of you. That said, expect a bit of turbulence on your flight. Check the section on turbulence under "travel" in the forecast post for some helpful tips. Save travels and I hope you have a magical trip!

Thanks Chris and thanks for the tips on turbulence

[Strmchsr]

ok Chris - we are leaving 10/23 and heading back home 10/30. Please see what you can do in the way of a perfect forecast.

I'm just in public relations, not management, but I'll send a memo to the Boss for you.

Waiting a few more days is a good idea. I think the end of the month will be cooler, but it's still up in the air how much cooler (and I'm talking low 70s or around 80, not anything like 50s or 60s for highs).

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

LOVE, LOVE, LOVE the forecast for us! We're leaving Detroit on Sat 16th, hoping to pull up to AKL afternoon of 17th and leaving on 23rd.

THANK YOU !!!! Sounds like perfect weather for us... shorts by day, sweatshirt and jeans by night.

[DisneyBarb]

Leaving on Oct 22 for a 3 night stay..I'm fine with the 70s! just keep hurricanes/tropical storms away! Thanks for keeping us posted! What a wonderful resource and I won't get to excited about anything in "vodoo" time..

[Belster]

Thanks for the great updates!! We leave on 10/22-10/31....I do not like to hear 40's...ugh!!! Can you change that....haha.

Hope the week is a fairly mild week for weather. Thanks again!

[disneymomma2010]

We are going to the world oct 22-27th for my twin sons' birthdays! we are praying for great weather! We were hoping to go to the beach for a few days after we leave disney (27th and 28th). Will it be too cold for the beach? How cold is too cold to play in the ocean?

[Strmchsr]

Will it be too cold for the beach? How cold is too cold to play in the ocean?

I think it will be too cool to play in the water, though not too cool to get your feet wet or walk along the beach. The water temps are starting to fall pretty quickly and by the end of October will be down where you'll get chilly fairly quickly.