WDW Weather Forecast - September 29-Oct 15, 2010

[Strmchsr]

That just made my morning! I'm taking this one day at a time right now.

That's the way to do it! I'll have the full update with all of the afternoon models by 1:30 pm EDT so we'll see what it looks like then.

[EpcotFanatic]

I guess my week is going to be good after all!!

[BigRedDad]

I guess I have to keep my eye on voodooland. I lived in south FL until I was 29. Only helped my dad board the house 2 times in the 80s. Now, voodooland is hinting at a potential hurricane the day we fly in. Still not concerned because the odds are so low. Just gotta keep an eye out.

[YatesMom]

We're in the World Oct 2-8....looks like we could be in for some soggy weather
Will be watching the updates listed here like a hawk. First trip for my 14 month old and second trip for the 4 and 8 year olds. Traveling for the first time with my best friends family...so many plans...no time for Hurricanes...please send up some pixie dust for decent weather with nothing severe...

[Strmchsr]

Now, voodooland is hinting at a potential hurricane the day we fly in. Still not concerned because the odds are so low. Just gotta keep an eye out.

please send up some pixie dust for decent weather with nothing severe...

The models continue to change. The potential good news is that several of the models are consistently showing a deep trough over the US by the end of next week. Because of that, the hurricane is now shown being pulled into the Atlantic, barely brushing Florida's Atlantic coast. There's actually 2 storms shown now. One brushes Fl on Sept 30 and on on Oct 5. If it plays out like the models show this morning then WDW would see the risk of thunderstorms on those dates, but nothing major.

I have some meetings early afternoon, so it'll be mid afternoon (2:30 or so) before I get the full update up.

[EpcotFanatic]

Is that storm off the coast of South America any threat from 25th-1st? I'm guessing that could be the one that pops up around the 29th?

[Strmchsr]

Is that storm off the coast of South America any threat from 25th-1st? I'm guessing that could be the one that pops up around the 29th?

Yes, the wave currently just north of Venezuela is the one the models are showing to eventually become our first hurricane threat.

[yjgirl32]

Bummer we are leaving o Sept 30th to drive down from Pa and will be in Disney on Oct1st till the 12th. The 5th we have an Epcot day so nothing too bad. Thanks for updating.

[Strmchsr]

Bummer we are leaving o Sept 30th to drive down from Pa and will be in Disney on Oct1st till the 12th. The 5th we have an Epcot day so nothing too bad. Thanks for updating.

There's still a lot of uncertainty with this potential storm, so don't make any specific plans based on the data from today. It's probably still 3-4 days away from having a clearer picture of how things will go.

[Disney Doll]

We're headed down Sept 23-30 and I have been glued to these updates in the last several days. Thanks so much for taking the time to do this! It's much appreciated even if the predictions aren't what we want to hear.

[Strmchsr]

Thanks, Michelle. I hope you have a great trip and check back in about 30 min for the latest update.

[EpcotFanatic]

The NHC says the storm is moving west over the northern part of Venezuela & Colombia during the next few days. The further away the better! Waiting on Chris's update.

[beckylovestink]

Waiting on pins and needles

[Strmchsr]

The NHC says the storm is moving west over the northern part of Venezuela & Colombia during the next few days. The further away the better! Waiting on Chris's update.

Just posted. Sorry for the delay. Got held up in the meetings.

[yjgirl32]

Thanks for the updates. We are just going with our plans and hoping the storm doesn't happen.

[brivers222]

You know i loved reading these updates... but never understood the "excitement" people had until my dates are slowly creeping into play in the thread... Now i get it

thanks a lot for the updates!!!!

[DisneyNut6777]

Chris, just wanted to thank you for all the hard work that goes into your weather updates. DW and I are driving to WDW. We are leaving middle TN Oct 16th (Early) and are staying at the Poly for 5 nights, and then headed down to stay with my Mom and Dad in Sebring for 6 nights. Sure hope Storms can stay away. Have been reading your thoughts, and NOAA, and Joe Bastardi on ACCU-WEATHER and it looks like Sept/October can be a tad bit tense as far as the tropics are concerned. Thanks for the info, talk to you soon. Vann, and Gina from TN

[Strmchsr]

You're welcome. I hope you guys have a safe and storm-free trip!

[EpcotFanatic]

The one thing that I like about the GFS predictions (in regards to my trip) is that it's been constantly showing Oct 1st as a landfall date for Florida.

Obviously we all know what the storms bring. But would a tropical storm or hurricane in the region spur more wind/rain/thunderstorms before the storm it self arrives?

[Strmchsr]

Obviously we all know what the storms bring. But would a tropical storm or hurricane in the region spur more wind/rain/thunderstorms before the storm it self arrives?

It really depends on which side of Florida it goes. That's the big issue right now. I think it will impact Florida around Oct 1, but if it slides up the Atlantic coast, no, WDW wouldn't see much impact at all. If it comes up the Gulf coast, then, yes, you would likely see rain bands and thunderstorms begin to move in ahead of the storm. Even 12-24 hours before the storm moves ashore. If it moves right up the middle as shown this morning, you would see some advance rain, but not as early nor as much. So, the big question is exactly where it goes in relation to Florida. Keep in mind that the advance rainbands would probably not delay you much, if at all, in getting out of Orlando. They are generally low-topped storms that planes can fly around. You would just have to deal with some bumpy air for a while. Having flown in the hurricane hunter plane a few times, I can definitely vouch that ride is better than any at WDW.