WDW Weather Forecast - September 29-Oct 15, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in September, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Thursday pm, Sept 30, 2010
The high today should be around 85. For tomorrow through Sunday, highs will run 84-86 with lows 67-69. There is a slight chance of a shower on Saturday as a front moves in, but the front should be pretty dry and those showers will be isolated. Tuesday through Thursday some scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible, but they will be few and far between. With a lot not far off the Florida coast, I can't rule one out, but it doesn't look too likely. Highs will be 85-87 with lows 70-72.

Long range...Oct 8-17 looks completely the same today. Highs in the low to mid 80s, lows in the upper 60s, and mostly dry conditions with only a very slim chance of a pop up afternoon shower. Obviously, things can change in voodooland, especially with the tropics staying active, but the models have all dropped the idea of the Oct 12-13 hurricane. I knew it looked fishy when it first popped up on Monday and Tuesday, but we can't rule it out, and that idea still might come back. We'll just have to wait and see.

Travel Impact
At 1:30 pm CDT, Philadelphia, NYC (all 3) and Boston are reporting delays. No other airport delays are reported, but there are some HUGE travel issues along the east coast for drivers. Be careful! For tomorrow, DC to Maine will be the problem area.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
“Nicole” is officially no longer a named storm, and turned out to be a dud for WDW. The rain missed by about 100 miles. Sorry for all the worry on that storm. I get so frustrated when I do the best I can with these things and then they turn into a colossal dud like that. That's why I always remind you don't get too excited about any tropical system more than 3 or so days in advance.

Well, everything looked clear yesterday, but today the National Hurricane Center is investigating thunderstorm activity about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands. Basically two separate tropical waves decided to get together and their combining created an illegal (unforecast) area of activity. There is a moderate chance that this region could see tropical cyclone development by Saturday, and if it gets a name, the “O” storm is “Otto” this year. Storms out that way typically recurve or move toward Florida this time of year so we'll have to watch it closely. Now, the good news is that the SHIPS model keep intensity at a moderate level through Saturday and increases it for Saturday afternoon through Monday. That means the storm will have a fairly difficult time getting its act together. In fact, right now the ECMWF is the only model that develops the storm and it moves the storm towards the Bahamas, not Florida. The other models show an area of thunderstorms, but nothing organized off the Atlantic coast of Florida early next week, but only scattered thunderstorms around WDW. That said, there is a lot of variation in how the models are handling the steering currents for next week, so we certainly can't dismiss this storm right now.

Click here for Disney's 2010 hurricane policy.

[gollybass]

I have a quick question (being that I arrive to the world on the 12th) Should gaston or Igor progress to hit Florida (which I understand is up in the air still) What would the effect on Orlando, and Disney be? Of course with Orlando being further inland. Are we talking sustained damaging winds? Heavy rain, or just some inclement weather or....?

[Strmchsr]

The answer depends on where the storm comes ashore and how strong it is. In most tropical situations the effect is a very blustery, rainy day. However, in every hurricane situation thus far where WDW has had to shut down (only 7 days in the history of the park, and 1 of those was for 9/11) they've been able to get back to almost full operations by the day after and full operations within 48 hours of landfall.

To directly answer your question, if it's a strong hurricane then you could have hurricane force winds in Orlando. It's not that far inland. But if it hits north or south of Orlando you might just have some thunderstorms. It takes almost a direct hit from a significant hurricane to close the parks.

[Emme&TeddysMommy]

Chris I love reading your posts. Any input on sept 18 - 25?? I know it's early but the storms have been a bit crazy this year.

[Strmchsr]

Chris I love reading your posts. Any input on sept 18 - 25?? I know it's early but the storms have been a bit crazy this year.

Thanks so much!

There's no sign of the wave train letting up coming off of Africa so I'd say pretty much all of September the threat of tropical activity will be present. For the moment, though, that time period looks warm (90-92) and dry. My guess is somewhere towards the end of that period we'll see a cold front moving south, but it's not on the models right now.

[AntMagsMom]

TS Gaston, on the other hand, has me pretty concerned. The NOGAPS turns Gaston back out to sea. The GFS turns it north right over Puerto Rico, then up the US coast on an Earl-like track. But all of the other models have Gaston getting into the Caribbean with a potential threat to Florida coming around Sept 12-13. It's also possible that Gaston will bypass Florida and move into the Gulf. Or it could turn north and miss the entire US. All of those possibilities still exist. The steering currents for the end of next week remain way to uncertain to say for sure. Nothing has worried me up to this point, but Gaston has me concerned. I suppose with all of the new Belle construction in the Fantasyland Expansion we should expect Gaston to be attracted to WDW. Seriously, no need for alarm yet. We just need to watch carefully.

I love your updates but I have to say I HOPE you are wrong about Gaston

[Strmchsr]

I love your updates but I have to say I HOPE you are wrong about Gaston

Me, too. And I'm not saying Gaston will hit Florida. That's just 1 of 3 possibilities. Right now it's just concern, not saying it'll happen.

[AntMagsMom]

Me, too. And I'm not saying Gaston will hit Florida. That's just 1 of 3 possibilities. Right now it's just concern, not saying it'll happen.

Oh, I know! Thanks for all your updates, they're really the best!!

[pianobabe]

Thank you for all of your expertise.

I always start getting more excited about our upcoming trips when I start seeing my dates in your titles.

[Strmchsr]

I always start getting more excited about our upcoming trips when I start seeing my dates in your titles.

I think looking for the dates in the forecast is almost as big of a traditional countdown now on Intercot as as waiting for your 180 ADR day.

Once your dates hit voodooland you know you're close!

[PopPhan]

Congrats on 5 years, Chris! Keep up the great reports!

Tomorrow, you add our first day to your 'voodoo-land' dates!!! Now I know our trip is getting close! (I should have read through the previous posts to see that you had already mentioned this!! LOL)

[EpcotFanatic]

Looks like great news and weather so far for our Sept 25 visit.

[AntMagsMom]

We'll be there Thursday through Monday ( 9 - 13) other than the usual possible afternoon showers sounds good?

[Strmchsr]

We'll be there Thursday through Monday ( 9 - 13) other than the usual possible afternoon showers sounds good?

Yep. Looks like you'll be fine. All indications right now are that Gaston will stay south of Florida and, if it does get into the Gulf, will be more likely to threaten Mexico or Texas (possibly Louisiana) rather than the northern and eastern parts of the Gulf. That's not 100% set, but things look good for you.

[AntMagsMom]

Thank you thank you!!

This is my second trip that I've followed your weather reports. You rock!!!

[Strmchsr]

Thanks! Hope you have a great trip!

[beckylovestink]

I am finally in vooodooooland! Time to get super excited! Now looking forward to beautiful weather and no hurricanes Come on Chris!

[EpcotFanatic]

I am finally in vooodooooland! Time to get super excited! Now looking forward to beautiful weather and no hurricanes Come on Chris!

I'm there as well! I'm ready to pack lol.

[Minniefan68]

Hi Chris,

Anxiously checking your forecast each day. We arrive late on Sept 18th and are hoping for sunshine and blue skies for the week of 9/19-/25.



Old Key West Sept '10

[Strmchsr]

Anxiously checking your forecast each day. We arrive late on Sept 18th and are hoping for sunshine and blue skies for the week of 9/19-/25.

lol, I think that's pretty much what we all hope for, right? Of course, if that happened Orlando would be deserted from lack of water.

Still, things look good for you. Right now it doesn't look like any major rain event. Just the normal pop up stuff in the afternoons and those are pretty isolated.