WDW Weather Forecast - March 31-April 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in March, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Wednesday pm, March 31, 2010
A building ridge of high pressure aloft will bring the warmest weather so far this year to WDW in coming days. Today will top out around 74 (I notice most of the global models are still about 5 degrees too warm in their projections) with lots of sun. Tomorrow's high will be 77-79 with a low 52-54. Friday through Tuesday highs will be 80-82, lows 55-57, with lots of sun, so it looks like a perfect Easter Sunday.We have good agreement on the medium range models now that the ridge will deflect the weekend system to the north. A stray shower Sunday evening or Monday morning isn't totally out of the question, but it isn't likely. Wednesday is still clear, but the high will drop to 77-79 with a low 54-56.

Long range...April 8 looks like rain will be a possibility, especially late afternoon and evening. The high will be mid 70s. April 9-10 highs will be low to mid 70s with lows in the upper 40s. April 11 will be mid to upper 70s with a low around 50, then April 12-15 will be in the upper 70s to near 80 with lows in the mid 50s. The next rain chance arrives on April 16 with a high in the low 70s.

Travel Impact
At 2:15 pm CDT, Newark, Boston, and La Guardia are, once again, dealing with some minor delays. For tomorrow, the main delay threat will be across SoCal, NV, AZ, and CO.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[happy day]

I don't like this forcast. I am going March 22, and I do not want to bring warm clothes. I never thought florida could be so cold for so long.

[Strmchsr]

I don't like this forcast. I am going March 22, and I do not want to bring warm clothes. I never thought florida could be so cold for so long.

I don't know for sure (no one does) but with the AO flipping positive around the middle of the month I think by March 22 you'll be closer to normal - mid to upper 70s (normal high for that time of the year is 78). I would suggest, however, not basing what you bring on Accuweather, Weather Channel, etc. Those are automated and based on one model which has been running 10-15 degrees too warm in its forecast this winter. They'll be tempting to believe, but not very accurate.

[BigRedDad]

The weather pattern is far to jittery right now. From all indications for my trip next week it looks like it is going to be in the 70s for most of the trip. The local weather channels are predicting it that way. I know accuweather and intellicast have been off. But now that the local channels are beginning to mirror them, I am hoping they are more accurate. Even looking at the latter part of this week, the temps climb a ladder as if Winter just up and left. Regardless, there is no way to predict a difference of +/- 4 degrees with any ease past a week.

[Strmchsr]

I'm not buying it just yet. I know the local channels are showing mid 70s, but they seem to just be inputting the GFS MOS data, too, like the fill-your-zip code sites, which is rather disappointing since they should be doing their job as a meteorologist and looking at all the data available. I've noticed the local sites have been too warm on their forecasts 4-5 days out. They are generally better 3 or less days. I'll see what the 12z models say, but I'm thinking after the next rain on Tuesday things will be a little cooler again.

[BigRedDad]

I am buying it!!! It's better to be wishful thinking for my trip. I hope you realize I am just yanking your chain a little.

[Strmchsr]

I hope you realize I am just yanking your chain a little.

Oh, absolutely. And I can't blame you. The good news is that as uncertain as this year's weather pattern has been you at least have a fighting chance of getting what you're hoping for!

[Tinkermom]

I am watching your forecast closely Chris! We are hoping for a few days of warmth starting March 12th. Since we head out on the 4 night DCL cruise on March 14th we hope to get at least close to 80 in the Bahamas! We are then back to WDW March 18-21.

[betholtmans]

Come on warmth I need blue skies and above 70 for March 19-26....I'm coming from MN, and anything above 70 will be heaven!!

[T--]

Hey Chris,
Thanks for all your work on this. We're headed down on the 5th for a week.

Is there a weather site that you think is better than most, or are they all about the same?

Thanks,

Trent

[Strmchsr]

Is there a weather site that you think is better than most, or are they all about the same?

Most of the "fill in your zip code" sites are all the same because they all use the same GFS MOS products (that's a computer model). Sites like Weather Channel, Accuweather, etc are completely automated. They have no human interaction at all. They just plug whatever the computer model says into their website. So, honestly, those sites are totally useless more than 3-4 days out. In general for checking your forecasts I recommend this thread, the local TV stations, and/or the National Weather Service local office. All of those have trained humans who look at a variety of models and use experience and skill to make a forecast (though, we still blow it sometimes) as opposed to plugging in numbers from one model.

If I had to pick one of the automated sites it would be Weather Underground. They usually have the best general information and the algorithms in their computer simulations seem to be more accurate.

[AndrewJackson]

Once the AO flips positive (whatever that means ), how long does it take to warm up? 2 days, 3 days? Basically, what are the chances of 70+ on or after March 20th?

[Strmchsr]

Once the AO flips positive (whatever that means ), how long does it take to warm up? 2 days, 3 days? Basically, what are the chances of 70+ on or after March 20th?

The AO is the arctic oscillation. Basically, when it's negative cold air is being pushed southward from the arctic. The more negative the AO, the more forcibly the cold air is being shoved to the south. When it goes positive that means the cold air is bottled up and things warm up. Once it does go positive for Florida it usually only takes 3-4 days to see a good warm up.

As for chances of 70+ after March 20...hard to say right now. My guess is pretty good. I think we'll be seeing low to mid 70s by then, but now the AO is looking like it stays negative through at least March 19, so we'll have to see. It'll be another 5-7 days before I can say with any certainty.

[mouseketeer mom]

Please please, tell me it will be warm for the Easter Bunny.!

[Strmchsr]

Please please, tell me it will be warm for the Easter Bunny.!

Probably, but impossible to say right now.

[FlaTinkRAMESAM]

hey... we are headin over Sunday the 7th thru Wed the 10th... are you thinkin that the wesh.com weather forecast is too high with the 76 and 78 degrees for tues and wed? just wonderin how to pack...

[Strmchsr]

hey... we are headin over Sunday the 7th thru Wed the 10th... are you thinkin that the wesh.com weather forecast is too high with the 76 and 78 degrees for tues and wed? just wonderin how to pack...

Yes. I thinking's that's probably off by 8-10 degrees. So, not frigid, but not "hot" either.

[AndrewJackson]

Thanks Chris for all your work on this thread. It is nice to have a meterologist specifically targeting Walt Disney World.

You are just now starting to predict our vacation (March 19-26) in your long range plans. Every day I am anxious to see the update. I don't mind cooler temps, just want SUN!

Thanks again,
Andrew

[Tinkermom]

OK - so far so good Chris! Nice job! LOL! Looks like we have stormy weather on the day we get there (Friday) and the day we leave (Sun. 3/21) but in between sounds good.

Do you have any timing for the storms on Friday? Our plane is scheduled in to Orlando around 4PM. I am not a big fan of flying as it is and flying in storms gets me a bit nervous. At least I know to carry on my umbrella!

[bigdonms51]

Hi Chris-

We’ll be at WDW March 12th-19th and I’ve been anxiously watching your forecast for the last week or so. This looks perfect, so hopefully it will come to fruition. In some of the previous long rage forecasts, you thought that rain/storms might hit the area on the 17th or so. Just curious what has changed. I’m not complaining, as this forecast is much better (and will make my wife happier).