WDW Weather Forecast - January 31-Feb 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

The 10-day forecast on Weather.com seems to be showing highs of 70+ all the way through until February 7th.
Do you think that cold-snap might be pushed off again?

I have absolutely no faith in anything on the weather.com "fill in your zip code" forecast, but it does appear that any significant cold air push will hold off until mid-month. There's a couple of opportunities between now and then for a trough to develop, but the pattern doesn't favor that until around Feb 9-10.

[Buttercup]

I have absolutely no faith in anything on the weather.com "fill in your zip code" forecast, but it does appear that any significant cold air push will hold off until mid-month. There's a couple of opportunities between now and then for a trough to develop, but the pattern doesn't favor that until around Feb 9-10.

YIPPEEE! You know what? Remember last month when I asked you for 60's-70's for my trip? You came through for me! Thank the big boss for me!
We leave tomorrow!!!

[Strmchsr]

YIPPEEE! You know what? Remember last month when I asked you for 60's-70's for my trip? You came through for me! Thank the big boss for me!
We leave tomorrow!!!

Glad to oblige. Wish I could take credit. Hope you have a wonderful trip.

[A&M'sMommy]

I'm going the 5th - 12th and weatherchannel.com shows rain for 5-7 so far....BOO!! Accuweather I think though shows something different. Please pray for decent weather for me!!!

[Strmchsr]

I'm going the 5th - 12th and weatherchannel.com shows rain for 5-7 so far....BOO!! Accuweather I think though shows something different. Please pray for decent weather for me!!!

Keep in mind that both of those websites (along with all the "fill in your zip code" sites) have no human interaction whatsoever on those forecasts (can you tell I'm not a big fan of sites? They aren't real forecasts). They are computer generated based on 1 model so they are notoriously fickle and inaccurate more than 1 or 2 days out. They also use different models to get their statistics, which is why they show something different. Those are okay for knowing what's going to happen tomorrow or the next day but they are fairly useless beyond that. Can't promise it won't rain Feb 5-7, but I can say that I don't foresee that happening right now. In general with this pattern you can count on rain every 3-4 days (I know we all want perfect weather on our vacations, but Orlando REALLY needs rain right now) but when it does rain it's rarely more than 3-4 hours so it won't ruin your entire day. Plus, it's extremely rare to have multiple rainy days. Not saying it doesn't happen, just not often, so don't worry too much.

[DisneyorBust]

Thanks Chris! I'm waiting till Monday to finalize my choice of clothes for our trip. (arriving Tuesday afternoon) Hopefully, the warmth and sunshine will be upon us!
And please extend a Happy Birthday! to your wife!

[A&M'sMommy]

Keep in mind that both of those websites (along with all the "fill in your zip code" sites) have no human interaction whatsoever on those forecasts (can you tell I'm not a big fan of sites? They aren't real forecasts). They are computer generated based on 1 model so they are notoriously fickle and inaccurate more than 1 or 2 days out. They also use different models to get their statistics, which is why they show something different. Those are okay for knowing what's going to happen tomorrow or the next day but they are fairly useless beyond that. Can't promise it won't rain Feb 5-7, but I can say that I don't foresee that happening right now. In general with this pattern you can count on rain every 3-4 days (I know we all want perfect weather on our vacations, but Orlando REALLY needs rain right now) but when it does rain it's rarely more than 3-4 hours so it won't ruin your entire day. Plus, it's extremely rare to have multiple rainy days. Not saying it doesn't happen, just not often, so don't worry too much.

Thanks! It's already changed so I'm going to stop checking. The one day I'm hoping for perfection is the 7th, it's my hubby's 40th birthday and the reason for our trip, not that we really need one! I'm just hoping for a perfect day for him, the rest we can work with!

[tjewelcat]

Chris,
I have been reading your weather posts (I am in Prattville BTW) and I was wondering if there are any updates for Feb 7-13. I am trying to plan my days and perhaps plan around any rain days. Thanks for your help.

[Strmchsr]

Chris,
I have been reading your weather posts (I am in Prattville BTW) and I was wondering if there are any updates for Feb 7-13. I am trying to plan my days and perhaps plan around any rain days. Thanks for your help.

Well, it's always good to hear from someone so close! Feel free to drop by my church in Millbrook (Robinson Springs UMC) for a personal update any time.

As for updates...most of that time frame looks clear but it still looks like a fairly potent storm system in the Feb 12-13 time frame. Beyond 7 days is worthless on exact timing, so I would say wait a few more days before finalizing plans. Yesterday most of the models showed Feb 13 as the day, but today most are leaning towards Feb 12. That may change by the time I do the full update this afternoon. The "voodooland" models just aren't that reliable.