WDW Weather Forecast - January 31-Feb 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in January, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, January 31, 2010
We've got a very interesting and challenging forecast ahead this week. Today is staying mostly cloudy, which means the high will end up 58-60. Tomorrow will be 66-68 after a low of 42-44. An isolated shower isn't out of the question, but not too likely. Tuesday is the big question. There will be a low pressure system moving across Florida, but where it goes is still up in the air. Most of the models are taking the system north of Orlando, but it's still possible it comes a little further south. This will be one of those systems determined by 100 miles or less and that's impossible to forecast. We just don't have the tools to handle that kind of microscale details. So, I'm going to tell you to be prepared for thunderstorms on Tuesday, but it is also possible you'll stay completely dry. It's impossible to say for certainty one way or the other. My gut feeling is that WDW won't see much rain, but, again, be prepared just in case. Now, Wednesday through most of Friday will be sunny. 66-68 will be the high on Wednesday with a low 46-48. Thursday will be 73-75 and Friday will be 75-77 with lows around 50 both days. The next front will move in late on Friday. Again, timing is still a little iffy. My current thought is that the storms will move in during the evening and be gone by park opening on Saturday, but that's not 100%. Some of these storms could be severe so stay tuned to the conditions while you're in the park. Saturday's high should be 67-69 with a low 48-50. Sunday will be cooler with a high 58-60 and a low 38-40.

Long range...Total insanity out in voodooland, so ignore everything I'm about to write. Feb 8-9 will be clear with highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the low 30s. The flow goes more zonal for Feb 10-12 so highs should warm into the mid 60s with lows in the low 40s. A powerful system moves in on Feb 13 with strong thunderstorms. Feb 14 clears out with a high in the mid 50s and a low in the mid 30s. Feb 15-16 warms into the mid to upper 60s as WDW will be in the warm sector of the roller coaster before the next big system arrives on Feb 17. They key here is not the exact dates. The only thing you need to concern yourself with is that the pattern looks very active with the potential for some cold snaps.

Travel Impact
No major delays at 12:40 pm CST. I don't foresee major issues tomorrow, but the potential exists along the TX coast as well as WA and OR.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[Alligirl]

Thanks strmchsr!!! I will be checking in as I am going to WDW (a surprise Christmas gift) the last weekend in Jan. I've never been at this time so your weather report will be helpful. Also my DH & DD are flying home to NY on Sun so your travel impact report is helpful too! Thanks!
~Allison

[GreenBeetle]

Well, I do appreciate the forecast of no rain for the next 7 days in Disney as we are heading down there tomorrow morning for our first stay at Kidani Village!!

And I suppose I should be thankful that 58 - 59 degrees is still about 30 degrees warmer than it's been here in Pennsylvania the last few weeks . . . but Holy Moly, what has happened to Florida??

Trip Report and Dining Reviews when I get back! Happy New Year to All!

[MushuGrl]

You know, Chris, I start REALLY getting excited about my trip when I noticed your weather reports are nearing my time there! Thanks for your hard work!

Tab

[Strmchsr]

but Holy Moly, what has happened to Florida??

El Nino. Oh, and probably global warming, too. Have a great trip!

You know, Chris, I start REALLY getting excited about my trip when I noticed your weather reports are nearing my time there! Thanks for your hard work! Tab

Tab, I know the feeling. Our arrival date is almost out of voodooland now and it always gets me excited. It's one of those special Intercot only milestones. I suppose since I've been doing the forecast for 3 1/2 years now it's becoming a tradition to look for your dates to appear.

[rt207]

We start the drive from PA on the 15th and plan to arrive in FL on the 17th. The voodooland forecast has me a little nervous for the drive. I'll be watching it obsessively for the next 2 weeks...

[Strmchsr]

We start the drive from PA on the 15th and plan to arrive in FL on the 17th. The voodooland forecast has me a little nervous for the drive. I'll be watching it obsessively for the next 2 weeks...

As far as driving it doesn't look like too big of a deal right now. The storm system looks far enough south to not be a major snow issue until more like the 19th or 20th. You may just have to deal with rain when you get there, but almost always expect at least 1 rainy day in January.

[Crow]

thanks for your work.
right now my trip is planned for the 25th. hope no snow here in Philadelphia or Allentown to mess that up

[dumbo_buddy]

Thanks strmchsr!!! I will be checking in as I am going to WDW (a surprise Christmas gift) the last weekend in Jan. I've never been at this time so your weather report will be helpful. Also my DH & DD are flying home to NY on Sun so your travel impact report is helpful too! Thanks!
~Allison

ditto! we're going down 1/24-1/31 and flying in and out of LGA.

thanks!

[Alligirl]

ditto! we're going down 1/24-1/31 and flying in and out of LGA.

thanks!

Hey we are also flying out of LGA and going from 1/29-2/2!! Have a great trip!!

[fanofdisney]

Oh, I hope that storm system for the 18th breaks up I really appreciate your hard work but it is making me very sad Our trip is planned for 16-23. We had a cold front come in on our last trip in Oct 2008. I think it was record lows! I sure hope that can't really happen twice

[Strmchsr]

Oh, I hope that storm system for the 18th breaks up I really appreciate your hard work but it is making me very sad

Well, don't get too worked up just yet. Voodooland can and does change. However, just given the current pattern you need to be prepared for at least 1 day with rain. Not necessarily record lows, but in January in almost always rains every 3-4 days a little. Just grab a poncho and go, though. No need to let it stop you!

[BiloxiMom]

Hi Chris, what's your best guess for the last wk. of Jan.? We're taking my older parents and they don't do really cold. Of course, I don't do hot. At. All. I know it's a long way off, but looking into the crystal ball, what do you see?

[Strmchsr]

Hi Chris, what's your best guess for the last wk. of Jan.? We're taking my older parents and they don't do really cold. Of course, I don't do hot. At. All. I know it's a long way off, but looking into the crystal ball, what do you see?

As you noted, it's impossible to say right now. However, the current pattern shows no signs of going anywhere through at least the 18th, though it moderates somewhat. If that holds through the end of the month expect highs at or below normal and a rain event every 3-4 days. How much below normal I can't say right now. There's a significant snow cover over the US and more to come, though, which means air coming south doesn't have much time to moderate. It won't be blisteringly cold, but highs in the 50s aren't out of the question. But, if the flow goes a little more zonal neither are highs in the upper 60s.

[BiloxiMom]

Thanks Chris. I'll keep watching your posts. I'm hoping for warmish weather.

[MushuGrl]

Let's all do our "stay away snow" dance - we're leaving the 20th out of Tennessee, heading down towards southern Mississippi.

[Strmchsr]

Let's all do our "stay away snow" dance - we're leaving the 20th out of Tennessee, heading down towards southern Mississippi.

Right now it looks fine, but we'll see how things look in a few days. The main storm track is staying mostly south of TN for the next 10 days or so.

[HJL413]

We fly out of Philadelphia on 1/20 for our Disney World trip. The current Philadelphia forecast is Buffalo for the next week followed by 10 days of Alaska

The real concern is the long range forecast for Disney World. We need to know how many bathing suits to bring

[fanofdisney]

Chris, are the rains in Jan like the rains in Oct? We have been in Oct when the rain came so hard and fast that even a poncho was useless, it was crazy.

[Strmchsr]

Chris, are the rains in Jan like the rains in Oct? We have been in Oct when the rain came so hard and fast that even a poncho was useless, it was crazy.

Usually not. Those rains in October are due to the tropical airmass over Florida. During January it's more of a continental airmass so you get "normal" rains. You can still get some heavy rain from a front moving through, but not like during the summer and early fall.