WDW Weather Forecast - December 31, 2009 - Jan 16, 2010

[Strmchsr]

Each day in December, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Thursday pm, December 31, 2009
The last day of 2009 looks pretty nice. The high should around 77 with a slight chance of light showers moving in late tonight. Shouldn't interfere with the New Year's celebrations, though. On an interesting note, tonight will be the first Blue Moon in 2 1/2 years (2 full moons in 1 month) and the first New Year's Eve Blue Moon in 20 years. Tomorrow will have some scattered showers with a high 64-66. The showers could be hit and miss so just keep a poncho handy. Things will turn much cooler once the front passes, though. The trend in the long range is for cold weather to stick around through the middle of January. And that trend is clearly supported in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) projections. Saturday through Wednesday looks dry. The models are saying a high around 60 each day, but I still think the models aren't taking into account how little the air will moderate due to the snow pack, so I'm thinking Saturday through Wednesday the high will be closer to 55-57 with a low 31-33. The north wind will also be fairly brisk each day so wind chills may be in the 40s during the day and even 20s at night or early morning. On Thursday a new Gulf low will move over Florida bringing showers and a high 62-64.

Long range...Light showers may linger into Jan 8 with a high 64-66. It's possible (not saying it will happen) that the showers could change to light snow flurries before they end, but this is still voodoo. Just saying the players are there for that to happen. Jan 9-12 then looks clear with highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s. A front moves in during the evening of the 12th, so most of the 13th also looks clear with a high back around 60. The 14th looks nice with a high in the mid 60s before a really powerful Gulf low hits on the 15th. If that comes about (and this is WAY into voodooland) the 15th could be a really nasty, stormy day with significant severe weather. We'll see. That will probably chance by tomorrow. Jan 16 looks clear with a high in the low 60s and a low in the low 40s.

Travel Impact
At 11:15 am CST, Atlanta and Charlotte are looking at delays due to low ceilings and all 3 NYC airports are facing significant snow/ice delays. For tomorrow, lake effect snows could cause problems around MI, PA, NY, and WV as well as more issues across all of New England. Also, the Pacific Northwest could have some delay issues.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[Figment78]

I know this is probably impossible to answer but I've been on pins and needles wondering. We're headed down Dec 17-24. I've been to florida twice at this time of year (dec 26-jan1, 1998/99; and dec 19-24, 2003). Both were absurdly cold (winter coats and gloves weather). My in-laws claim that they've always had really great weather when visiting relatives in Ft. Myers at Christmas and are planning to pack swimsuits and shorts.

I know anything goes in Dec and I'm packing for a wide range of weather, but do you know if this year is supposed to be colder than average, "average" or warmer than average? (and what average might be???) I looked up like 10 years of historical weather temps and it does appear that I had really bad luck with my past two trips, but thought I would ask you anyways!

[Strmchsr]

As you said, December is a tough one. Looking at the overall pattern, though, it looks like it could be a roller coaster for you. Temps at or slightly above normal when you arrive (avg high for that part of Dec is 74) but I'm sure you'll have a cold front with at least one rainy day and cooler temps before you leave. Today got your arrival date included in the forecast, so over the next 3-4 days I'll start to see better what the pattern will be, but, in general El Nino years are slighter warmer and wetter than normal. The first part of December definitely seems to fit that pattern.

[Figment78]

Thanks Chris! I'll keep watching your post with anticipation1

[Red Randal]

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for that long range outlook to be spot on. December 17-18 I need nice warm days!

Hopefully it holds out for Figment too!

[Gocubs]

Just back to the WL for a nap break for my son. Been a pretty wet one so far, but nothing too heavy yet. Hoping to head back out later if the rain gives way any.

[Strmchsr]

Just back to the WL for a nap break for my son. Been a pretty wet one so far, but nothing too heavy yet. Hoping to head back out later if the rain gives way any.

Unfortunately, the rain is just going to get worse. Maybe an occasional break, but nothing too long term. On the upside, I've been in WDW in this kind of rain before. My DS and I just put on ponchos and were literally able to ride every ride in the MK it was so empty. Hope your trip goes well. It should clear up tomorrow.

[disneykid@hrt]

I know, I know- this is a voodooland question:

What is DW looking like for mid-January temperature-wise?

It seems like it has been warmer-so far. Maybe I've been cooking my numbers...

[POOH_BEAR]

I'm so excited about this post...it's the first I have seen in all the boards I look at. We arrive in 7 days!!! I am so excited because our trip will be just DH and myself and we are celebrating our anniversary with a great stay at WL. This is his first Disney Christmas trip and he is so anxious to see all the great decorations! We live in Indiana and right now it is FREEZING...mid 20's so even 60 degrees sounds great...but when you are on vacation you hope for the best possible weather like 70-80 and sunny. I'll be happy as long as it doesn't rain all day/all week and we have decent weather! The bright side regardless of the weather...we'll be at DISNEY!!!!!

[Strmchsr]

What is DW looking like for mid-January temperature-wise?

I'm wondering that, too, since that's the time frame of our next trip. I'm teaching at a leadership conference for Disney while my family hits the parks. No way to know right now, but the general pattern is a roller coaster. You might see upper 70s and low 60s in the same week. In general, expect rain every 3-4 days, so nothing too bad. I'll get into specifics as we get closer.

I'm so excited about this post...it's the first I have seen in all the boards I look at. We arrive in 7 days!!! I'll be happy as long as it doesn't rain all day/all week and we have decent weather!

I hope you have a wonderful trip! It definitely won't rain all week. Like I posted above, over the course of a week you can probably expect rain one day this time of the year so just take a poncho and go with the flow. You'll have a great time!

[Fire314]

will be watching this thread very close heading down to Disney from Myrtle Beach Dec 17-24 reall want good weather as it will my DD first trip to Disney

[Figment78]

I knew warmer weather was too much for me to hope for. I hope the models turn out to be wrong and we don't hit the 30s in the run up to Christmas...

I apologize in advance to everyone going dec 17-24, I seem to bring colder weather with me anytime I go to WDW at Christmas.

[POOH_BEAR]

Thanks for the continued updates. I have been checking weather.com also and it lists a 30% chance of rain on several days. I know that at WDW it's best to just take a poncho and enjoy but we are going to MVMCP Sunday 12/13 I just hope it doesn't rain that night especially! We've never been and we are so looking forward to it.

[Strmchsr]

Thanks for the continued updates. I have been checking weather.com also and it lists a 30% chance of rain on several days.

Don't put too much stock in the "fill in your zip code" sites like the Weather Channel. No human interaction involved. Just numbers plugged in from one model run. So, that 30% chance on several days is probably not accurate. Even with my forecast, though, I admit beyond 7 days is not trustworthy. Models just aren't accurate enough yet.

[AmBo]

Thanks for the updates StormChaser! I need the 18th to be perfect for MVMCP. I'll be poping the question that night!

[Melanie]

Unfortunately, the rain is just going to get worse. Maybe an occasional break, but nothing too long term. On the upside, I've been in WDW in this kind of rain before. My DS and I just put on ponchos and were literally able to ride every ride in the MK it was so empty. Hope your trip goes well. It should clear up tomorrow.

We were in the MK this day, and it was pretty miserable. Weird thing is, it really didn't drive away the crowds.

[Strmchsr]

Thanks for the updates StormChaser! I need the 18th to be perfect for MVMCP. I'll be poping the question that night!

Wow! Congrats! I'll be sure to send an extra memo to the Boss for good weather.

We were in the MK this day, and it was pretty miserable. Weird thing is, it really didn't drive away the crowds.

That stinks. If you're going to deal with the rain there should be some benefit.

[2MuchWDFun]

We'll be in WDW from the 18th to the 23rd. You note it being "stormy all day" on the 19th (I realize its a voodoo weather guess). What are the winter storms like in Florida? Are they like the summer where you'll get an hour of rain and then it blows through, or does it linger all day? My son and husband want to see Avatar...it might be a good time to see a move while its raining.
Love to hear your thoughts.

[Strmchsr]

What are the winter storms like in Florida? Are they like the summer where you'll get an hour of rain and then it blows through, or does it linger all day?

No, the winter storms are quite different than the summer storms. In the summer they are just the pop up variety that form along the daily sea breeze. That's why they are fairly short, but intense. In the winter these storms are due to an approaching cold front. As a result, you get longer periods of rain. In general, 3-4 hours with about an hour of really intense thunderstorms. However, some of these systems can move fairly slowly and you get an all day rain. As you said, it's kind of hard to tell right now what this system later this month will be, but you need to count on more than just an hour.

[Figment78]

Hey Chris - I'm getting really anxious. Trying to start packing and would love to know if I'm looking at lows in the 50s or 30s.... the ominous "flurries aren't out of the question" phrase has me waiting (im)patiently for your next udate that might be more definitive for my 12/17-24 trip!