WDW Weather Forecast - October 31-Nov 16, 2009

[Scar]

Hey Chris,

I'm going next week so stay on the Level with me Brother and keep those reports in good shape.

[Strmchsr]

Hey Chris,

I'm going next week so stay on the Level with me Brother and keep those reports in good shape.

Hey, Brother you know I'll pull every string I have for you.

[tinklover]

it is that time of year when I come to hunt down the weather guru's reports 10 days out and I am just here checking up on how things look. looking Ok so far, thanks for all you do.

[Belster]

I am sooooo worried about the weather next week!! I am worried that we are going to encounter some big thunderstorms???

I am used to the daily show and then pass through...please say that is all it is!

[Dsnygirl]

I am sooooo worried about the weather next week!! I am worried that we are going to encounter some big thunderstorms???

I am used to the daily show and then pass through...please say that is all it is!

I'm with you, esp. since we're going to MNSSHP the same night!! Here's to hoping our night isn't a rainy one...

I'm sure hoping those models change and push those fronts back...

[Strmchsr]

I am used to the daily show and then pass through...please say that is all it is!

Don't be too concerned right now. The models really are all over the place, changing every run. Honestly, anything beyond 5 days (instead of my usual 7) is a guess right now. Sometimes the models show a big front coming down at the end of next week, but then the next run it shows the front fizzling out before getting to Orlando. We'll just have to watch for some consistency. Early in the week is also a toss up. The cold front coming through this weekend that pushes back north on Monday and Tuesday I don't think will cause all day rains. Off and on thunderstorms are possible, though. It just depends on how far north that front backs up. Some models show it staying south of Orlando, some don't and I'm trying to sift through them all to see which ones have the best handle on the situation. I'll keep you updated!

[Dsnygirl]

...I'm trying to sift through them all to see which ones have the best handle on the situation. I'll keep you updated!

Chris, you're awesome... thank you so much for keeping us up-to-date on stuff, even when the models are whacky. Here's to hoping they settle down and settle in to something a little more easy to predict!!

(btw, I now have this thread as a bookmark on my Blackberry so I can check it while we're there... I've come to trust you more than what I hear on TV! )

[Strmchsr]

(btw, I now have this thread as a bookmark on my Blackberry so I can check it while we're there... I've come to trust you more than what I hear on TV! )

Thanks Blythe! Do be aware, though, that I'll be closing this thread and opening the November thread on Nov 1. You'll have to change your bookmark then.

[Dsnygirl]

Thanks Blythe! Do be aware, though, that I'll be closing this thread and opening the November thread on Nov 1. You'll have to change your bookmark then.

No worries.... all we're doing that day is flying home.

[Scar]

Sometimes the models show a big front coming down at the end of next week, ..

Chris you're gettin' me excited. I wasn't expecting that at WDW.

[Strmchsr]

Chris you're gettin' me excited. I wasn't expecting that at WDW.

Sorry, Brother. It happens sometimes this time of the year. However, it's still voodooland so we'll see how things look over the next couple of days. Looks a little weaker on the late evening models.

[Dsnygirl]

So, seriously... what is up with the temps?? Totally unpacked this week and re-did my suitcase with shorts and tank tops, got rid of jackets and capris... well, except a couple of pairs for the evenings...

I know these temps are WAY above normal for this time of year, this is Aug/Sept. weather.

What's bringing it?? (and what are lows expected to be? Can we anticipate cooler evenings, even though the days will be hot?)

Guess I'm re-thinking adding TL back into the plans...

[Strmchsr]

I know these temps are WAY above normal for this time of year, this is Aug/Sept. weather. What's bringing it?? (and what are lows expected to be? Can we anticipate cooler evenings, even though the days will be hot?)

Actually, the "average" high for this time of the year is 84. So, temps are staying pretty much right on normal. Things warmed up a little bit due to an intense high a couple of weeks ago, but then we had record lows last week. El Nino is what's causing it. It tends to bring more extremes. Anyway, Saturday might be hot depending on when the rain comes, but then Sunday through Thursday or so next week will be right around 85 for highs, which is basically normal. It still depends on when the front moves through next week, but by the end of next week temps should be below normal (upper 70s) so I would imagine October will end up averaging out right around "normal" as some weeks have been hotter and some cooler.

[disneykid@hrt]

Chris you're gettin' me excited. I wasn't expecting that at WDW.

[threeh]

Thank the boss for the great forecast. Tell him (or her) you deserve a raise!!!!
Thanks for the good news!!!

[BiloxiMom]

Chris, are you talking mid 80's with lots of humidity or that nice, comfortable 80's? We're going the 1st thru the 8th and we changed our trip once already to avoid HOT!

[disneykid@hrt]

Are there any forecasts as to what type of winter WDW's expecting? I know that's Extreme Voodooland- but ya know, warmer or colder than usual?

[Strmchsr]

Chris, are you talking mid 80's with lots of humidity or that nice, comfortable 80's? We're going the 1st thru the 8th and we changed our trip once already to avoid HOT!

The humidity shouldn't be too bad. Certainly not summer bad. So, while it will be warm you shouldn't feel like you've just gotten out of the shower after 5 min outside.

Are there any forecasts as to what type of winter WDW's expecting? I know that's Extreme Voodooland- but ya know, warmer or colder than usual?

The really long-range models right now are indicating that things will be a little wetter than normal with temps at or very slightly above normal.As you said, that's "super-voodooland" but given the El Nino in effect that's probably correct.

[Minniefan68]

Chris,
I don't know much about meteorology: What do you mean by Models?

Our stay at the world is the 7-12th, hoping these 'models' you speak of bring good things.

Thanks.

[Strmchsr]

Chris,
I don't know much about meteorology: What do you mean by Models?

The "models" are computer simulations (or models) of the atmosphere. They are the primary means of forecasting. There are a ton of them out there run by different groups - NAM, GFS, UKMET, EWRF (Canadian), NOGAPS, and so on. Essentially these are very complex simulations based on really long advanced calculus, thermodynamics, and fluid dynamics and other physics/chemistry formulas (they give me a big headache just looking at them) that run on super computers which attempt to figure out all the variables of the atmosphere and give us a clue as to what will happen. None of them is perfect and each has its strengths and weaknesses (which is why using an automated site, like weather.com - is useless because they only use 1 model). Therefore I look at all of them, take into account those strengths and weaknesses, and try to build a forecast. Now, once we get past 6-7 days the variables in the atmosphere become so enormous that even super computers can't figure them out with a large degree of accuracy, which is why I refer to the time beyond 7 days as "voodooland." Out that far we can usually tell general patterns, but not specifics.

Hope that helps!!