WDW Weather Forecast - October 31-Nov 16, 2009

[Strmchsr]

Each day in October, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Saturday pm, October 31, 2009

Happy Halloween everyone!

The high today should hit 86, so short of record heat, with a very pleasant evening for the MNSSHP. Don't forget to set your clocks back an hour before going to sleep tonight. Tomorrow will be another dry day with a high 84-86. Monday will be a little cooler at 82-84. Tuesday a second front pushes through. Certainly there will be some scattered showers about, but it doesn't look like a big rain event. The high will be 81-83. Wednesday through Saturday highs will be 79-81 with lows 61-63 and mostly dry conditions. A few clouds and maybe an isolated afternoon shower, but those don't look too likely.

Long range...Nov 8-10 highs will stay in the 80-82 range with lows in the low 60s. The models are being pretty consistent about developing a very sharp east coast trough around Nov 11. While there doesn't appear to be much of a rain event as the front passes, it looks like Nov 11-13 will be in the mid to upper 70s with lows in the mid 50s. Nov 14-16 highs go back to right around 80.

Travel Impact
At 1:30 pm CDT, low clouds continue to cause problems around Newark, JFK, and Philadelphia. For tomorrow, some delays remain possible in the general NYC area, but mostly everything looks good.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
Nothing happening right now.

Click here to view Walt Disney World's Complete hurricane policy for 2009.

[Tinkermom]

Hurricane?!! Mike and I head out to WDW for our 20th anniversary trip on Oct 12th and fly back on Oct 16th. I will be checking back here regularly and hoping that this "hurricane" that the models are showing magically disappears!

[disneykid@hrt]

Irk! It's gonna rain the whole trip?! If the hurricane goes away will the pre-rain as well?

8 days-Rain or Shine!

[Strmchsr]

Irk! It's gonna rain the whole trip?! If the hurricane goes away will the pre-rain as well? 8 days-Rain or Shine!

Daily rain is something you just have to expect at WDW June through October due to the sea breeze fronts that set up each afternoon. However, we're not talking about all day drenchers. It's a 30-60 min thunderstorm then the sun comes back, so nothing to worry about.

[Strmchsr]

Hurricane?!! Mike and I head out to WDW for our 20th anniversary trip on Oct 12th and fly back on Oct 16th. I will be checking back here regularly and hoping that this "hurricane" that the models are showing magically disappears!

Hey, Lisa. Don't panic. You guys shouldn't have anything to worry about. Hope you have a great 20th!!!

[mudpuppysmom]

I'm liking the 14-20 forecast!! That is EXACTLY when we will be there, so don't change a thing!

[Strmchsr]

I'm liking the 14-20 forecast!! That is EXACTLY when we will be there, so don't change a thing!

Now you know I can't promise no changes to the voodooland forecast, but I've sent your approval to the Boss so that He is aware of it.

[Goes4FastPass]

Daily rain is something you just have to expect at WDW June through October due to the sea breeze fronts that set up each afternoon. However, we're not talking about all day drenchers. It's a 30-60 min thunderstorm then the sun comes back, so nothing to worry about.

This is very good news.

We who go to WDW "too often" know not to panic about a downpour because "then the sun comes back, so nothing to worry about."

Are you expecting Blizzard Beachin' weather through the 21st of October?

[Strmchsr]

Are you expecting Blizzard Beachin' weather through the 21st of October?

Pretty close to it. The models are hinting that first taste of cool air will come somewhere around that time, but exactly when is impossible to say right now. For the moment, it looks closer to Oct 23 or 24 but we'll see how the timing evolves over the next few days.

[Dsnygirl]

Chris, I am liking your forecasts, even though mine are in voodooland!! (Oct 22-Nov 1) I'm hoping for a few initial days of warmth, and some cooler days to follow -- sounds like that's just what you're thinking may happen! And I know how your record is, so I'm happy!! (But, I won't hold it against you if things change.... I know the Boss can mix things up at the last minute, so I won't complain... )

PS - When you say "cooler" days coming up, what's that equal to in Florida weather?? Up here, it's 50's and 60's... are we talking high 70's/low 80's as cooler, or low 70's heading into the 60's for highs? I know, no definites... I'll just take a guesstimate...

[Strmchsr]

PS - When you say "cooler" days coming up, what's that equal to in Florida weather?? Up here, it's 50's and 60's... are we talking high 70's/low 80's as cooler, or low 70's heading into the 60's for highs? I know, no definites... I'll just take a guesstimate...

I don't think 60s are going to be an issue, but low to mid 70s aren't out of the question. I think mid 70s highs are quite possible from the intensity of the trough towards the end of the month. Low to mid 50s for lows are also possible, so it could be a little cool first thing in the morning and evening. As you noted, though, it's just a guesstimate right now.

[eam]

Strmchsr, will you be doing forecasts for November? We will be staying November 11-22, and hoping, of course, for great weather. Although it will definitely be better than here. Thanks for all of your help, and info. I enjoy reading this thread. It is informative, fun and entertaining.

[Strmchsr]

Strmchsr, will you be doing forecasts for November? We will be staying November 11-22, and hoping, of course, for great weather. Although it will definitely be better than here. Thanks for all of your help, and info. I enjoy reading this thread. It is informative, fun and entertaining.

Definitely! I do these every day. I guess I've been doing them daily for a little over 3 years now. Look for your dates to start showing up towards the end of this month. The long range models are all 14-16 days so that's the length of my forecast period (though I openly say don't trust anything anyone says beyond 7 days). Thanks for your comments!

[nicster]

Hurricane?!! Mike and I head out to WDW for our 20th anniversary trip on Oct 12th and fly back on Oct 16th. I will be checking back here regularly and hoping that this "hurricane" that the models are showing magically disappears!

Irk! It's gonna rain the whole trip?! If the hurricane goes away will the pre-rain as well?

8 days-Rain or Shine!

DH & I were at the World during hurricane Charlie in 2004, so I will tell you our experience. The hurricane was on it's way before we even left California, so we knew it was a possibility. We were told when we checked in at CS that the parks were likely to shut down part way into the next day & we would be informed as to what time (hurricanes are generally slow, so they can anticipate the approx time they will 'land'). Each time there was an update the resort had a message on our phone. When we caught the bus the next morning to EPCOT we were the only ones on it, but there others there waiting for it to open. We walked on to every ride, and we took the bus back to the resort by 1p.m. (the time the last update msg told us the parks would close). When we got back to the room the newest msg was that we should all be in our rooms by 3p.m. (that was later updated to 5, the storm was moving slower & slower). The thing to know is; everyone at the resort was trying to get something to eat all at once! The line just to get into the food court was outrageous!! Fortunately, we had brought some cheese & crackers, along with some almonds & already had some bottles of water in our room. The resort gift shop was completely cleared of food items. We watched TV as the storm came thru, we never lost power and the way that the room we were in faced the inside of a court type area, we didn't have the noise that other guests talked about at the bus stop the next morning.
The next morning:
We had the world relatively to ourselves, we had to change our plans to go to AK, as they had evacuated many of the animals, though. Some of the restaurants did not open, due to the power having been out in their part of the park-therefore the food needing to be replaced. Also, the CBR was evacuated to CSR and other resorts because it is in a low area. Disney gave us a park-hopper pass that could be used any day in the next ten years. The airport was a mess, and we left 6 days after the storm passed. The planes were all still delayed, due to the terminals being so torn up. That's my story, I hope it helps with your concerns.

[threeh]

Come on stormchaser (who controls the weather??) give me nothing but sun for the first week of November.......
Thanks for the turbulance site too!!

[Strmchsr]

Come on stormchaser (who controls the weather??) give me nothing but sun for the first week of November.......

Sorry. I'm in public relations, not management.

[Running_Bell]

ugh... it appears we are arriving on the 24th, the same time as the cold front. Does this mean no swimming? shorts? Will we need jackets? This is disappointing and finding myself in a panic about possibly changing the week that we go... my husband will love the cooler temps.. but I find 80 to be cool.... so when you say "cold" front... what approximate temperatures do you expect... day/evening?

Thank you

[Strmchsr]

ugh... it appears we are arriving on the 24th, the same time as the cold front. Does this mean no swimming? shorts? Will we need jackets? This is disappointing and finding myself in a panic about possibly changing the week that we go.... so when you say "cold" front... what approximate temperatures do you expect... day/evening?

Keep in mind 2 things - 1.) That's at the far end of voodooland so nothing is certain right now. and 2.) "cold" front is relative. For Florida that will probably mean highs in the mid 70s (low 70s at worst) with morning/evening temps dropping into the mid 50s. With heated pools that shouldn't be a problem for swimming at all, especially during the afternoon. Will you need jackets? Possibly something light early in the morning or evening. I would suggest having a sweatshirt or something you can take off because I don't think you'll need it long in the morning. You're more likely to need it in the evening. Now we just have to wait and see if this thing materializes.

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

We'll be heading down from Michigan on Oct 17th. Driving up to the Treehouse Villas on the 18th. We're still in for a hot one? FINE WITH ME! It's 50's and high, cold winds here and I'll take heat and humidity over this.

Love the info. I'll be watching this thread and your updates daily... ok, i'm a liar. I'll be watching like every 2-3 hours!

Mid 80's sound like heaven to me... especially when the evenings will be warm 70's for fireworks and MNSSHP!

[Ransom]

I'd *like* the cold front to come through during our trip (we usually go in Dec), but we're there during the warmer period of this month. Oh, well! I guess everyone should experience Disney in 90+ weather with a heat index of 100+! I just never expected to do it in mid-October!