WDW Weather Forecast - April 30-May 16, 2009

[Strmchsr]

Each day in April, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Thursday pm, April 30, 2009
Looks like today's high will top out at 83. I saw several sites pegging upper 80s for today, but I just don't buy it. I don't think we'll stay in this pattern of about normal temps (normal high for this date is 86). The upper ridge will weaken some this weekend, so the chance of an afternoon sea breeze thunderstorm should be a little better (about a 1 in 5 chance of any one place seeing a brief event) but still no major rain through next Wednesday with the highs 85-87 and lows 64-66. Next Thursday now looks like the target date for this weak front, though the timing could continue to change. This doesn't look like a major rain event, but there will be a decent chance of a shower (50-50). I think it'll still be 3 days or so before we have a good handle on strength and timing.

Long range...May 8-10 looks like a pretty good chance of an afternoon thunderstorm with highs in the 83-85 range. A front moves in on May 11 with more scattered showers, but no all day rain and a high in the low 80s. May 12-16 looks like just isolated afternoon showers with highs staying mostly in the mid 80s. Maybe even low 80s by May 15-16. It still looks like a shift to wetter weather by mid-month, but that's voodooland, so, for now, we'll have to wait and see.

Travel Impact
At 3:00 pm CDT, Regan (DC), JFK, and Philly are having minor delays and Chicago is looking at more significant delays with thunderstorms in the area. For tomorrow the strongest thunderstorms (a slight risk of severe weather from the SPC) will be across northern TX, AR, northern MN, western TN &KY, MO, KS, and OK.

[donnah77]

Thank you so much for posting the weather updates - we really appreciate it! It has been a huge help as I fine tune the packing, and we're heading to the World on Wednesday!

[merlinmagic4]

I'm so excited to start seeing the forecast for our trip! We'll be there 4/18-4/25 but please, no rain on 4/20!!!!!!!!!!!! It's my daughter's birthday and that's not allowed

[Strmchsr]

We'll be there 4/18-4/25 but please, no rain on 4/20!!!!!!!!!!!! It's my daughter's birthday and that's not allowed

While I'm in public relations, not management, I'll be sure to send a memo to the Boss and let Him know.

[Crow]

thanks for your work.
Ill be heading down there Sunday & its looking good weatherwise.

[TinaAndGlenn]

Arriving the 14th staying til the 19th! The weather looks great-of course I woke to SNOW today. Yea for 80 Degrees!

[Bethanymouse]

Thanks for the weather update! We head down Thursday and stay until the 16th. Do I bring a sweatshirt? What do you think?

[Strmchsr]

Do I bring a sweatshirt? What do you think?

It never hurts to have one, but I don't think you'll need it. Still, just in case bring it along.

[WDWFanatic]

Happy Belated Birthday! Hope you had a great day.

We are heading down April 18-May 2 so if you could just go ahead and push those rain clouds out and set the thermostat at 78 we'd be happy

[Strmchsr]

Thanks, Kelly.

It seems I'm turning into a short order weather cook.

[merlinmagic4]

April 18-22 looks perfect with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 and clear skies.

Ahhhh......................

Happy Belated Birthday, too!

[Insanity Clause]

I hope those mid 70 temps hold while we are there April 20-27th! Those temps are ideal for me.

[merlinmagic4]

I'm on the edge of my seat waiting for the next update!!!!!!!

[Strmchsr]

I'm on the edge of my seat waiting for the next update!!!!!!!

It'll be up in about 20 min. Sorry for missing yesterday. Easter Weekend keeps us pastors pretty busy.

[merlinmagic4]

Yes, I figured you had things going on Thanks for the update!! Looking better........

[the other micki]

Thanks so much for the weather reports! We're going the last week in April; warm and dry sound great to me! I'll be checking further as my week exits voodooland territory.

[DawsonAR]

Thanks for the weather reports. I have read you will be there the first week of May and we will be too. I know it is too far out but.......do you have an educated guess as to what the weather will be like the first week? Thanks

[WDWFanatic]

Yes, I figured you had things going on Thanks for the update!! Looking better........

Hey Kelly, I'm just following you around this thread,lol.

Thanks Chris the weather report is just getting better and better...LOVE IT!

Hope your DS's doctor appt. went well.

[Strmchsr]

Thanks for the weather reports. I have read you will be there the first week of May and we will be too. I know it is too far out but.......do you have an educated guess as to what the weather will be like the first week? Thanks

Well, the last few days it was looking warm and dry for the first of May, but there's some indication today that the active pattern might shift back south around that time. It'll bear watching to see how far south things come or if they high pressure will hold the rain off.

[DawsonAR]

Thanks so much!