WDW Weather Forecast - November 30-Dec 16, 2008

[Strmchsr]

Each day in November, I'll update this first post with the forecast, both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Sunday pm, November 30, 2008
Well, the front sped up by 3-4 hours and at 1:00 pm EST a large squall line is headed towards WDW and will be followed by a fairly large rain mass that will last through the rest of the day. A tornado watch is in effect until 5:00 pm EST. Today's high will hit 75. Tomorrow will be cooler with a high 65-67 and a low around 55. Tuesday will be 60-62 for the high with a low 44-46. Now, there's a very slight chance an isolated shower could pop up tomorrow and Tuesday, but I honestly think both days should be rain free. I think Wednesday and Thursday will also be rain free with highs 66-68 on Wednesday (low of 42-44) and 70-72 on Thursday (low 48-50). The next front approaches on Friday. Right now it looks like scattered showers will be possible, but the main energy will move up the east coast so I don't think it'll be a huge rain event. Just hit and miss stuff with a high of 75-77. After the front passes Saturday will cool back to 68-70 for the high and 47-49 for the low. Sunday will be clear with a high 70-72 and a low 50-52.

Long range...The latest long range GFS projections are hinting at a change in the overall pattern with the gradual development of a closed low over the Western US. This would bring Florida into a wet and mild pattern with a strong southwesterly flow aloft. The problem is the models are flip-flopping almost every run. So, for today my best guess on the long range is Dec 8-9 look clear with highs in the 74-76 range and lows in the mid 50s. Dec 10 warms to near 80 with the approach of a cold front. Isolated showers are possible. Dec 11-12 will have highs in the mid 70s. The next big front moves through on Dec 13 with thunderstorms and a high in the low 70s. Dec 14-16 looks clear with highs in the upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s. Again, this is changing every run, so take it with a grain of salt for the time being.

Travel Impact
At noon CST, Atlanta, JFK, La Guardia and Chicago are all at 90 min delays while Newark and Philly are at 2 hours. Tomorrow expect delays in the Northeast.

[Dyanna]

We will be leaving this coming Fri night. Can you tell how humid it will be next week if at all. I am still undecited as to pack short sleeves or light weight long sleeves. Of course I already have my light jacket for the evenings.

[Strmchsr]

We will be leaving this coming Fri night. Can you tell how humid it will be next week if at all. I am still undecited as to pack short sleeves or light weight long sleeves. Of course I already have my light jacket for the evenings.

Humidity shouldn't be a problem at all. Drier air will filter in this weekend, so even when temps go to 80 or low 80s next week it won't be bad. Unless you get cold very easily short sleeves for the day with a light jacket for evening will probably be perfect.

[Minniefan68]

Hi Chris,
We leave in 9 days and so far your weather prediction looks great for the 16th-22nd. I sure hope it stays that way. You've been right on the money for our last two trips in '06 and '07.

Keep up the great work - thanks for maintaining the weather update post.

Cheryl

[Texas Tinkerbell Too]

Oh, man! We were hoping to see the shuttle launch on Friday. Thanks for the updates, Chris.

[Strmchsr]

Right now it doesn't look good for a shuttle launch on Friday. Regardless of the amount of rain I think low clouds / winds would be an issue. However, it all depends on the timing of this storm and that could potentially still change.

[robyn221]

Thanks for the forecast! Looks like the weather will be almost perfect for our WDW trip. Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday! I know we will!

Robyn

[Strmchsr]

Have a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday! I know we will!

Robyn

Thanks, Robyn! I hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving and a wonderful trip as well.

[jnfr2424]

Thank you for the weather forecast Strmchsr!
I will be arriving on the 25th and I plan on being in BB on Thanksgiving morning!
I hope that storm does not come on the 30th- that the Christmas Parade!

Happy Thanksgiving and have a GREAT weekend!

[Strmchsr]

Happy Thanksgiving and have a GREAT weekend!

Happy Thanksgiving to you as well and have a great trip!!

[henry.james.s]

Well for Dec 1st thru 10th I better plan for cooler weather and off & on rain. Better than snow..getting down to 15 tonight in Hockeytown.
It'll feel like Christmas!!

[MushuGrl]

YAH!!! After the soggy disaster that was our MNSSHP last year, been keeping our fingers crossed for a nice MVMCP on the 9th!

[Strmchsr]

Don't be too anxious about it. That's WAY into voodooland. The models don't handle specifics well that far out. Just looking at this morning's runs it shows the front coming through later and only very isolated, light showers popping up on the 9th. Things will switch back and forth for the next few days.

[Bri]

i'm trying not to freak out just yet. but we are going dec 8-15. we have mvmcp tix on the 11, i hope this front you're talking about doesn't effect it!

[princess0511]

I read other sites that are calling for rain on Thursday Dec 4, what is your take on this. We are attending the MVMCP this day. Thank you so much.

[Strmchsr]

I read other sites that are calling for rain on Thursday Dec 4, what is your take on this. We are attending the MVMCP this day. Thank you so much.

I would disagree with that assessment. Looking at the models this afternoon, and just glancing at the latest run this evening, I think you'll be fine on the 4th.

[bkfree]

Thanks for all of the weather work you do.
And a big ROLLLL TIDEEEEE!!!


We are going to WDW Dec 3-10 and from what I gather from your forecast we can expect upper 60's to low 70s during the day and mid
40's to mid 50's at night and little rain.
Does this sound right?

I am worried about the evening of the 9th, we have PS for the 8pm CP at Epcot which is outdoors. What are the chances this will be rained upon?

Thanks again
and life is good in the SABANATION!

[glenpreece]

Bring on those cool temps from Dec13-19th!!!!!

[lindique]

Chris, thank you for posting - even on Thanksgiving! We really appreciate your knowledge and help.

[TBY2225]

Thanks so much for the awesome weather updates. You are always much closer to the "real" weather than the other sources out there! Hope your Thanksgiving was wonderful! We leave for the world in 5 days! YIPPEE!