WDW Weather Forecast

[blabbermouth]

Congrats on two years!

I'm a newbie, but I'll be flying into mco the morning of the 10th from Seattle, so I'll keep my fingers crossed.

Ike? Like Ike and Tina? Yikes, that could be dangerous! Heehee. Gotta love the hurricane names.

[DisneyDudet]

Congrats on the two year anni!!! Its nice to have a go-to person for some weather questions!

I am now worried about Ike. I'm not worried about it at WDW (except the night of the 12), but for getting to WDW!!! We will leave Thurs, Sept 11 from DFW. Is this the time frame that Ike could possibly be around the US/Caribbean??

[kb3311]

Hello Chris,

I am an new member to the site. Happy Anniversary I am leaving North Carolina this Saturday to drive down to Disney. I might move it up to Friday looking at where Hannah will be on Saturday morning. Anyway, my parents are leaving from Louisiana on Friday to meet us there. My wife and parents are leaving it up to me to make a decision on weither to rescedule or not. I would rather not. Could you give me some insight on what I should do based on the weather?

Thanks
Keith

[BMan62]

Happy (belated) Anniversary!

Keep up the great reports!

Let's hope Ike, Josephine and Invest 99 keep their distance!!!! DW and I are headed to WDW Sept. 16 - 23 and have never had a bad weather trip yet!!!

[AJHUNT2]

Hanna's projected path has now changed on weather.com. Suposed to be leaving on Thursday. Should we be worried about our trip 9/4-7?

[sndral]

"And everyone please welcome to the party Tropical Storm Josephine..."
I'd rather not - she needs to stay out in the atlantic!
Congrats on 2 yrs., it's nice to have a rational take on things rather than the media hype.

[Strmchsr]

Hanna's projected path has now changed on weather.com. Supposed to be leaving on Thursday. Should we be worried about our trip 9/4-7?

No. First off, I don't agree with their change, but secondly, while Hannah will be very near the FL coast Friday morning moving towards a Friday afternoon/evening landfall, WDW will be on the western side which is the "better" side to be on. While Orlando may get some thunderstorms and wind it won't be horrible unless Hannah changes paths and comes over FL.

I am leaving North Carolina this Saturday to drive down to Disney. I might move it up to Friday looking at where Hannah will be on Saturday morning. Anyway, my parents are leaving from Louisiana on Friday to meet us there. My wife and parents are leaving it up to me to make a decision on weither to rescedule or not. I would rather not. Could you give me some insight on what I should do based on the weather?

Hi, Keith! to Intercot!!! Getting out Thursday would be best, honestly. Assuming your parents are good in Louisiana (they may need to take I-20 to Birmingham then I-65 down to I-10 and across if I-10 is a problem around New Orleans as it is right now) they should be fine. You have a much bigger issue. It depends on where you're at in NC. I-95 would be a very bad idea. If you can take I-85 or I-20 over to Atlanta and then I-75 south to Orlando on either Thursday (best) or Friday morning you'll be okay. To keep from messing up your Disney trip it honestly would be worth spending a night in Atlanta (the Aquarium is awesome).

Is this the time frame that Ike could possibly be around the US/Caribbean??

Too early to tell, but, yeah it's possible. If Ike is to impact WDW, depending on his speed it could come any time next week between Tuesday and Friday. If he goes into the Gulf that'll throw everything out of whack.

Ike? Like Ike and Tina? Yikes, that could be dangerous! Heehee. Gotta love the hurricane names.

Hey, I just forecasts 'em. I don't names 'em.

[disneygeek84]

So, I'm pretty much looking at a storm hitting us on our trip next week then. We leave Texas on Saturday morning to drive down to Florida and plan on arriving at Disney on Sunday afternoon. We were planning on spending Saturday night west of Tallahassee at a KOA in Chattahoochee.

These plans need to change, don't they? I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer or anything, but at this point in time, it looks like I'm not going to be able to hardly drive threw Louisiana. and then once I do get past LA, I'm looking at running into another storm. And if that storm doesn't hit, then I'm looking at spending most of my trip locked up in my resort because I different storm is hitting WDW. Or am I just reading everything wrong?

[Strmchsr]

Based on what is happening right now you should be absolutely fine. I think if you take I-20 across LA and then go down to I-10 in either MS or AL you will have no problems getting there. Hannah will be north of your position and shouldn't create any problems for you unless she changes course (again, possible, but not probable). It's just too early to tell about Ike next week. Yes, a FL landfall with Ike is on the table, but so is Ike going into the Gulf or recurving out to sea. Give it a couple more days to see what Ike does before making any decisions.

[kb3311]

Thanks Chris,

We are leaving out of Raleigh NC, and I think we have decided to leave very early Friday morning and take the route around through Atlanta, and try to drive all the way through. My parents only concern is finding gas to get them over here from Lake Charles Louisiana. I think we should all be fine. I will be waiting on an IKE update from you in the coming days. Thanks for all of your help. I really did not think I would be able to find any help on this subject.

Thanks Again
Keith

[Susie in NM]

Thanks Chris for all the great weather info and congrats to you on your 2 year anniversary.

Our vacation is still in the "voo doo" area. We will be flying to Florida on the 11th. Here is hoping Ike and Josephine don't decide to visit Florida.

[DisneyDudet]

Thanks Chris for all the great weather info and congrats to you on your 2 year anniversary.

Our vacation is still in the "voo doo" area. We will be flying to Florida on the 11th. Here is hoping Ike and Josephine don't decide to visit Florida.

We fly out the same day... I am tempted to make a shirt that says... "Intercot says... Take a hike, Ike!" I just want to GET there... and on time.. and if my MNSSHP isn't a wash out, I will be counting my DIsney blessings.

Right now, if it falls into Florida, or the Gulf, I may have issues.

[pianobabe]

I'm concerned about Ike too. We are suppose to fly out of Charlotte on the 10th. Our flight leaves out at 7:45 am. I just want to get there too (we have tickets for La Nouba on the 10th). I am tempted to just say forget flying and just leave Tuesday night and drive.

[Vito]

Congrats on the 2 year anniversary!

Thanks for continuing to keep us up to date.

[JIMINY13]

Congrats on 2 years! It is great to be able to be kept in the loop everyday. We will be leaving out of NY on Sunday morning, so I think that we will be okay. Do you think that Ike will create havoc at WDW 9/7-12? Do you think we will encounter any problems out on the evening of the 12th?

[AJHUNT2]

You have made my day! We're flying out of Nashville tomorrow and return on the 7th. I can deal w/ a little rain and windy. Glad we don't have to use our backup plan. We had to cancel our trip last year and DID NOT want to do it again.

[Strmchsr]

We will be leaving out of NY on Sunday morning, so I think that we will be okay. Do you think that Ike will create havoc at WDW 9/7-12? Do you think we will encounter any problems out on the evening of the 12th?

Hannah will be moving up towards NYC on Saturday/Sunday so don't be surprised if there are some delays.

Too early to tell on Ike right now. The latest models show no impact on WDW, but that's far from set. If Ike were to impact WDW it would probably be towards the end of next week, Sept 11-13, but that's a huge if right now. The models are all over the place with this storm and given the possibility of a huge upper trough around that time I think Ike will end up as an Atlantic coast storm, but I just can't say for sure until probably Sunday or Monday.

[Strmchsr]

This is why I so was ticked off at all of the hyperbole coming out of the politicians with Gustav. People are going to get killed next time because of attitudes like this idiot caused by government overkill:

Next time, we won’t leave
Posted by James O’Byrne, staff writer, Times-Picayune

The next time, my family will stay. I’m sure that Gov. Bobby Jindal, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff, Mayor Ray Nagin, Jefferson Parish President Aaron Broussard and all the other public officials mean well. I’m sure they thought it was a good idea to panic people into leaving. I’m sure they believe it’s in the public’s best interest to stay away while they clean up.
But the evacuation of the metro area in advance of Gustav, and the subsequent policies regarding re-entry, will guarantee that in the next major storm to strike the region - which may occur in a matter of days or weeks - many more people will be at risk. The slightest bit of vision, combined with an open ear to the anger and frustration of this hurricane-weary citizenry, would make the government officials responsible realize that they helped to make this happen.

Under Louisiana law, it is still legally not possible to forcibly remove people from their property and make them leave in advance of an approaching storm. So every evacuation becomes an implicit contract between the officials and the public. You tell us the truth, and the risks as the scientists and forecasters see it. We’ll try to make good decisions for the sake of our families.
When that contract is broken, as I believe it was in the case of Gustav, then the tradeoff is that fewer people leave the next time. Here’s three rules that public officials must follow if they want people to evacuate in significant numbers again:

Rule No. 1: Don’t exaggerate and force a panic. It is not supposed to be the business of public officials to panic people with disinformation, misinformation, or downright lies. To call Gustav “the mother of all storms” 900 miles wide, as Mayor Nagin did, was demonstrably untrue, and an insult to Katrina and all who suffered through that storm. Gustav had hurricane force winds extending 50 miles from its center. Katrina, by comparison, had hurricane force winds extending 105 miles from the center. It was 50 percent more powerful, and carved a path of destruction more than twice as wide as Gustav.

Mayor Nagin on Saturday night, while foreshadowing his plan to call for a mandatory evacuation on Sunday, proclaimed that everyone should “leave now.” It worked, but how shocking was it that Interstate 10 east and Interstate 59 became complete gridlock, and a place of suffering for people trying to escape the storm? At the time Nagin made his breathless proclamation, the National Hurricane Center had already issued an advisory describing how forces of shear and dry air were inhibiting Gustav’s strength, and how all of the computer models — all of them — were showing the storm moving west of New Orleans.

To one degree or another, this pattern repeated itself across the metro area. Public officials succeeded in panicking the populace into fleeing - this time. But such a tack will not succeed as well the next. There are those who will say that people must heed the warning to leave, because even though Gustav missed New Orleans, the next one might not. It could be so much worse the next time, they argue. That may be true.

But the one commodity that is absolutely essential in communication between officialdom and its populace in times of crisis is credibility. It was cast aside this time in favor of hyperbole and exaggeration calculated to induce panic. The fact that it worked so well this time almost guarantees that the next time it won’t.

Rule No. 2: Don’t respond to people’s criticisms and complaints about how things went by telling them this is how it’s supposed to be. Sixteen hours to Birmingham, 23 hours to Tuscaloosa, 14 hours to Pensacola. In many cases, these horrific journeys were made with infants and the elderly, trapped on the interstate, blocked from exiting for hours and hours, with no hope of food, gas or bathroom facilities. Yet when public officials, standing in their air-conditioned Emergency Operations Centers, were questioned about what went wrong, they responded that everything worked well, and this is how it’s supposed to be. Back to that contract. If people don’t actually have to leave, and they are telling their public officials that this evacuation did not work well, the correct response to that message is not, “You’re wrong, it did.” Because if there is no hope of improvement in the time it takes to get out of harm’s way, then the next time many thousands won’t go.

Rule No. 3: You have to let people return to their property as soon as humanly possible. Yes, I know that in many cases, there is still some modicum of danger on the streets, what with tree limbs and power poles and all manner of difficulties, just as it’s dangerous to live here in the first place, dangerous to evacuate, dangerous to return on highways clogged with angry and frustrated citizens.

News flash: We know it’s dangerous to live here. We accept the possibility of no gas, no power, no readily available food. We’re Katrina survivors. We’ll figure it out.
But if the enduring image of Gustav is a U.S. soldier with an M-16 denying a citizen the right to return to his home, then you can pretty much write off the next “mandatory” evacuation. Leaving your home in advance of a storm is an extraordinarily stressful, difficult, traumatic and expensive proposition. The one thing that must be honored is that people must be allowed to return to their homes as soon as humanly possible.

As a journalist, I spent the past two days driving around reporting on the storm. And by Tuesday afternoon, this city was as safe as it needed to be. Indeed, all those tree branches and debris would be picked up and stacked neatly on the curb by lunchtime on Wednesday if people had been allowed to come home.

I fully appreciate the risks of letting my family stay. But I have to weigh that risk against the alternate risks, of getting trapped in an endless evacuation traffic jam, of being stranded on a highway far from help, of not being able to return in a timely manner, to secure our property and come back to as much of a normal life as possible.

New Orleans is my home. I love it, and I choose to keep living here. But if you are a public official who wants me to leave for the next storm, then you have to hear what I am telling you. It’s time to rewrite the contract.
•••••••

[disneygeek84]

What bugs me the most about all the hype with the Hurricanes, is that they only talk about New Orleans. And I'm not saying that what happened there isn't horrible. It was.

But does anyone remember about a week after Katrina hit, a hurricane by the name of Rita hit the west side of Louisiana? No. Why? Because everyone was talking about Katrina still. I grew up in Lake Charles, right in the heal of Louisiana. I still have many friends that live there, and some of their homes were lost to Hurricane Rita. My old next door neighbor's house was completely ruined because of flood waters, along with all of furniture and most of photos (which she had a ton of). The flood waters came up, and then went back down, but no one was allowed to come back in to the city for at least 3 days after the storm because of all the trees that were everyone and the powerlines that were down. Her whole house was nothing but mold and mildew by the time she was finally able to get back there. The house that I grew up in had a pine tree land on the backside of it. Not sure if they stayed there during the storm or not, but it's quite upsetting to think about the house you grew up being damaged. I got married the summer after those storms hit and no one from Lake Charles was at my wedding because most of them were still in shock from the storm. Most were still trying to rebuild their homes and their lives. And it wasn't just New Orleans that was evacuated this past week. It was the whole gulf coast, which included Lake Charles. They were terrified. They didn't know what was going to happen and if they were going to lose their homes once again. But the only place that my news here in the D/FW area talked about, was New Orleans (which Gustav barely even hit).

It angers me because yes, Katrina did horrible damage and the city was in ruins. But they weren't the only place to be hit by a hurricane ever in the history of time. And they won't be the last.


Sorry, I had to vent for a minute about all of that. Continue on with your original business.

[Melanie]

It angers me because yes, Katrina did horrible damage and the city was in ruins. But they weren't the only place to be hit by a hurricane ever in the history of time. And they won't be the last.

I totally agree! Great post.

Congrats on 2 years, Chris. Thanks for this service you provide our great members here at INTERCOT!