WDW Weather Forecast (including Gustav & Hannah) - Aug 31-Sept 16, 2008

[AJHUNT2]

Oh great, and we're supposed to be going Sept. 4-7. Looks like this could be fun. Do you still have to pay the normal cancellation fees if you cancel because ofa hurricane??????

[Strmchsr]

Do you still have to pay the normal cancellation fees if you cancel because ofa hurricane??????

Let me say, first of all, everyone relax. Like I mentioned in the forecast, Hannah is not a certainty. It's a very definite possibility, but right now the models are WAY too scattered to draw any definite conclusions.

Now, are for the fees, no, you don't have to pay normal cancellation fees. Here's WDW Tropical Weather Cancellation Policy:

Hurricane Policy FAQ

From June 1 to November 30 in the event a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area or for the guest's place of residence within 7 days before the scheduled arrival date, the guest may call in advance to reschedule or cancel their Walt Disney Travel Co. Magic Your Way vacation package without any cancellation or change fees imposed by Disney. This temporary policy also applies to most Walt Disney World Resort room-only reservations booked directly with Disney, as well as reservations at Disney's Vero Beach Resort or Disney's Hilton Head Island Resort in the event a hurricane warning is issued for those destinations.

Q. What can I do if a hurricane warning is issued?
A. If a hurricane warning is issued by the National Hurricane Center for the Orlando area or for your place of residence no more than seven (7) days before your scheduled arrival date, you may call in advance to reschedule or cancel your Walt Disney Travel Co. Magic Your Way vacation package and most room only reservations (booked directly with Disney) without any cancellation or change fees imposed by Disney. This policy also applies to Disney's Vero Beach Resort or Disney's Hilton Head Island Resort in the event a hurricane warning is issued for those destinations.

Q. Will I be responsible for any cancellation or change fees or other amounts?
A. If you have products and services provided by third party suppliers included in your vacation, such as airlines, hotels, car rental agencies or vacation insurance companies, you will continue to be responsible for any non-refundable payments, as well as cancellation or change fees assessed by those suppliers. The policy does not apply to certain special events or dining experiences.

Q. What if I prefer to reschedule my vacation to a different date because of a hurricane warning? Will I be able to get my same accommodations?
A. If you are scheduled to arrive within seven (7) days of the hurricane warning, you may call us in advance to reschedule without Disney imposed change fee. All amounts you paid to Disney for rooms, park tickets, Disney dining plans and other Disney products and services will be applied toward your new reservation. Any discounts or free offers applicable to your original vacation will not apply to the rescheduled vacation. We cannot guarantee availability of similar accommodations for the new travel dates. The policy does not apply to certain special events and dining experiences.

Q. I received a special offer when I booked my vacation. If I reschedule will I get the same special offer?
A. All amounts you paid to Disney for rooms, park tickets, Disney dining plans and other Disney products and services will be applied toward your new reservation. Any discounts or free offers applicable to your original vacation will not apply to the rescheduled vacation. The policy does not apply to certain special events and dining experiences.

Q. If I want to cancel or reschedule my vacation, what should I do with my airline tickets?
A. If you booked your air travel through the Walt Disney Travel Co. and you want to reschedule, we will attempt to re-book your air travel. But remember, you will be responsible for any cancellation or change fees imposed by the airline. If you did not book your air travel through the Walt Disney Travel Co., you should contact the airline.

Q. I did not book my package through the Walt Disney Travel Co. Does this policy apply to my package too?
A. No, you should contact your travel agent or tour operator directly for information relating to the cancellation and change policies that apply to your package.

Q. I have a sports or group package. Does this policy apply to my package?
A. No, the policy only applies to Walt Disney Travel Co. Magic Your Way packages. It does not apply to sports, youth, or other group or special event rooms or packages and does not apply to meetings and conventions.

[disneygeek84]

Here's to hoping and praying that Hanna turns and moves away from Florida so that all of us going next week don't spend the whole week in the rain

[Gibbs]

Chris, first thanks for your focasts. This has got to be a lot of time and effort on your part.

Now for a couple of questions. At what point do the parks shut down? Is there a certian wind speed, or certian weather conditions?

Also, is there any way to tell how much rain is associated with this storm? I know if some of these storms can have less rain than others. Any guesses?

[sndral]

Ok, my arrival date is no longer in voodoo land (9/4) and I'm a bit concerned about my flight connection via Houston, Texas.
Is it because I'm paying attention this year or is this season extremely active?

[Strmchsr]

Now for a couple of questions. At what point do the parks shut down? Is there a certian wind speed, or certian weather conditions? Also, is there any way to tell how much rain is associated with this storm? I know if some of these storms can have less rain than others. Any guesses?

Here's the WDW Hurricane Preparedness Strategy:

Phase 5
(Monitoring Storm Possible)
Review current plan, checklists and business recovery plans. Review personnel and resource availability for the ride-out crew. Verify contact numbers and emergency data. Prepare WDW Emergency Operations Center for activation.

Phase 4
(Storm likely within 24–36 hrs)
General readiness imposed. Brief personnel. Review checklists. Consider possible shut down of long lead operations and not starting extended operations. Limited activation and staffing of WDW Emergency Operations Center.

Phase 3
(Storm probable within 12–24 hrs)
Intensify clean up and tie down. Prepare for phase 2 activity. Selected ride-out crew personnel given the opportunity to secure their personal property. Turn in excess radios and vehicles. WDW Emergency Operations Center opens and is fully staffed. Note: Generally this is when the WDW Emergency Operations Center, command centers, and command posts will be fully activated. However, this is an Executive Policy Team decision.

Phase 2
(Storm impending)
Magic Kingdom, Epcot, Disney MGM Studios, Animal Kingdom and Downtown Disney close. Guest campground trailers removed and secured by the guests. Scheduled hotel and campground guests notified of conditions. Complete all clean up and tie down short of shutdown. Authorized ride-out families move to pre-designated shelters. Ride-out crew fully staffed at start of phase 1 or as directed by the WDW Emergency Operations Center. Personnel not in ride-out crew released as soon as possible.

Phase 1
(Storm imminent, take shelter)
Shutdown all activities and immediately take shelter. Fulfill ride-out requirement plans.

Post Storm Phase
Command Centers submit situation reports to WDW Emergency Operations Center. Establish business resumption / recovery schedule. Notify employees through media and cast Member emergency lines of call back as directed by WDW Emergency Operations Center.

In general they'll only shut down if winds are strong tropical storm force or above. I honestly don't know what the exact cut-off windspeed is. In general, it doesn't matter how hard it rains, the parks will stay open (except those outdoor attractions which cannot safely continue).

As for how much rain is in a storm, yes, there's a general idea as to how much rainfall could occur, but usually it's strictly to do with how fast the storm moves and rainfall rate within each individual storm that tells us how much rain might be estimated. That's not something we can generally forecast more than 24-48 hours in advance. Hurricanes bring their own moisture with them and are dependent completely on the local atmosphere to drop a lot of rain.

Hope this helps!!

[Strmchsr]

Ok, my arrival date is no longer in voodoo land (9/4) and I'm a bit concerned about my flight connection via Houston, Texas. Is it because I'm paying attention this year or is this season extremely active?

I think you'll be okay with your flight on the 4th. If Gustav plays by the rules (never a safe assumption with hurricanes) and comes ashore Monday night then even if he moves west towards Texas as appears to be the case he should be significantly weakened enough by Thursday for your flight to get out with little to no problems. The only issue is if Gustav gets blocked before coming ashore in LA and moves west towards Texas, delaying landfall until Wednesday. While not a huge possibility, this is a small one.

As for activeness...the last 2 years have been extremely quiet, so this year just seems a little more active than normal. This season, so far, is normal to slightly above normal in activity.

[mrs.jacksparrow]

Oh great, and we're supposed to be going Sept. 4-7. Looks like this could be fun. Do you still have to pay the normal cancellation fees if you cancel because ofa hurricane??????

We are going at the same time.....my son (6) and I already have plans....A bad day a Disney is a better day anywhere else we decided. We have picked some board games to bring just in case and thought about what movies we'd like to watch...also we really want to go to disney quest and we went through the parks to find all the fun indoor things we like....Mickey philharmonic etc. Don't worry...the only thing I worry about is if we can't fly out once there if we'll get another room for the extra nights. Things could be worse! pack the poncho, socks, shoes etc and a I'm not sugar and will not melt attitude! It's Disney!!!! the land of make believe!

[tink03]

Hey Chris I know we are still into voodoo land (Sept 18 - 28) but I have to say I am getting really nervous here. I am worried about our flights being cancelled . This is supposed to be a surprise trip for my 2 DS'S. Do you think Ike is going to threaten my plans or even the storm after Ike?



Sept 08 POR Surprising my 2 sons

[Strmchsr]

Hey Chris I know we are still into voodoo land (Sept 18 - 28) but I have to say I am getting really nervous here. I am worried about our flights being cancelled . This is supposed to be a surprise trip for my 2 DS'S. Do you think Ike is going to threaten my plans or even the storm after Ike? Sept 08 POR Surprising my 2 sons

Right now, too early to tell. Hopefully you won't be impacted at all. It'll probably be end of the week before we even begin to get an idea of what our potential Ike may day. However, keep in mind the cancellation policy above. Should, for some reason, you not be able to make it WDW will help you reschedule with no fees and you can still have your surprise.

[jokat]

Thank you for all of the updates...this helps tremendously!

We are scheduled to fly out of Wichita early AM on 9-3, with a short layover in Atlanta. I assume Atlanta is far enough north to not yet be affected by heavy rains (i.e. flight delays) at this time?

As far as Hanna, I don't know what to think. All I know is we've been planning this trip for 4 years and nothing can keep us away. It could be interesting, to say the least. We're used to tornado threats, and at least with a hurricane there is advance warning so we can plan around it if needed.

Does anyone know, would we be moved from the Poly in the event Hanna gets serious? Our stay is from 9-3 to 9-12. Thank you!

[kathiep]

Hey Chris I know we are still into voodoo land (Sept 18 - 28) but I have to say I am getting really nervous here.

Hey fellow NJ'ian. You're not alone. We're scheduled for the 17th through the 27th and I'm getting really nervous too!

I'm watching the one behind Hannah as well.

[georger]

We were scheduled to fly out on an early, early flight on September 5th...we just changed that with no penalty to a 7:59 on the 4th...we have an hour lay over in Atlanta....and should get to Orlando by midnight on the 4th- if all goes as planned. Do you think this was smart to change or not???? From the forcasts it looked like Hanna was going to be approaching early Friday morning...?????Either way we were paying for a hotel room on Thursday night b/c our Friday am flight was so early and we're a good ways away from the airport.

[Strmchsr]

We are scheduled to fly out of Wichita early AM on 9-3, with a short layover in Atlanta. I assume Atlanta is far enough north to not yet be affected by heavy rains (i.e. flight delays) at this time?
Does anyone know, would we be moved from the Poly in the event Hanna gets serious? Our stay is from 9-3 to 9-12. Thank you!

Your flights should be absolutely fine. It's looking like Gustav will take a more westerly course, so I don't expect Atlanta to receive any impact at all from the storm. A couple of the less reliable storms turn Gustav east, but no matter what by the time he got to Atlanta you'd be okay. So, relax. As for moving from the Poly, no you should be fine there should a hurricane come. They'll take very good care of you!

Do you think this was smart to change or not???? From the forcasts it looked like Hanna was going to be approaching early Friday morning...?????

I think you'll be okay. The latest model runs are beginning to turn Hannah away from FL and more towards an East coast storm. IF a FL landfall happened it's looking like, yeah, a Friday morning possibility. We'll just have to keep watching carefully. Read the tropical storm policy above and you'll know what to expect. Should Hannah threaten WDW will take care of you no matter what!

[mrs.jacksparrow]

Your flights should be absolutely fine. It's looking like Gustav will take a more westerly course, so I don't expect Atlanta to receive any impact at all from the storm. A couple of the less reliable storms turn Gustav east, but no matter what by the time he got to Atlanta you'd be okay. So, relax. As for moving from the Poly, no you should be fine there should a hurricane come. They'll take very good care of you!



I think you'll be okay. The latest model runs are beginning to turn Hannah away from FL and more towards an East coast storm. IF a FL landfall happened it's looking like, yeah, a Friday morning possibility. We'll just have to keep watching carefully. Read the tropical storm policy above and you'll know what to expect. Should Hannah threaten WDW will take care of you no matter what!

Chris...I just want to thank you for your encouragement and great reports! I've been reading this thread intently over the past few days (almost hourly LOL) and your advise and great information has kept me very calm and assured!!! THANKS!!!

[Strmchsr]

Chris...I just want to thank you for your encouragement and great reports! I've been reading this thread intently over the past few days (almost hourly LOL) and your advise and great information has kept me very calm and assured!!! THANKS!!!

Thanks! I'm glad to do it.

[kittysomerville]

I'm set to go to WDW Sept 14-21. My trip is now depending on 2 factors. 1. I live about 1.5 hours from the Mississippi coast, so if our home or vehicle gets damaged or, God forbid, destroyed, we may not get to go. 2. Now I'm worried about storm activity for the time of our trip! I haven't heard anything about Sept 14-21. Are we expecting Ike or spin off storms at that time?

[Strmchsr]

I'm set to go to WDW Sept 14-21. My trip is now depending on 2 factors. 1. I live about 1.5 hours from the Mississippi coast, so if our home or vehicle gets damaged or, God forbid, destroyed, we may not get to go. 2. Now I'm worried about storm activity for the time of our trip! I haven't heard anything about Sept 14-21. Are we expecting Ike or spin off storms at that time?

to Intercot!! Having attended Miss State for my undergrad, I know right where you're at. I don't think you'll have a problem with your home or vehicle. I'm pretty certain that Gustav will turn west, not east, so while you might see some heavy rain and wind, western MS will be hit much harder. You should be far enough inland to not have any issues. I definitely pray that's the case!

As for further storms, it's too early to tell. The models only go out to Sept 16 today, but there's nothing showing up as a threat as of now. There are several disturbances coming off of Africa right now and I'm sure 1 or 2 of them will cause problems for the US coast, but timing or where they might go right now is beyond my ability to say. Immediate conditions play a huge factor in where tropical systems go and until we 1.) Get a storm formed and 2.) see what trough's ridges, high/low pressure, etc are in existence at that moment we won't know where the storm might go. Keep checking this thread and I'll keep you posted as soon as anything develops. And keep me posted on your home!

[kittysomerville]

Thanks Strmchsr! I'm definately feeling a little better about our Gustav situation, although we're still going to our designated "hunker down" location for the duration of the storm! Thanks for keeping us informed! I'm glad to hear some honest, no-hype opinions on the storm situations!

[disneygeek84]

First off, thank you for keeping us updated, Chris! I used to live in Lake Charles and still have tons of friends that live there that have all had to evacuate at the moment, so it's nice to read an unhyped report of Gustav.

Now, onto my question... We're leaving next Saturday morning to drive down to WDW, staying the night west of Tallahassee and then arriving into Disney on Sunday. IF Hannah does come across FL, am I looking at driving threw it? Or will it be over with by the time we start heading down there? I know it might be a little too far out to tell at the moment because anything can happen, I'm just trying to figure out if we need to go the way I've always driven to WDW or if we need to get there a different way. Thank you so much, again!