WDW Weather Forecast - August 31-Sept 16, 2007

[Jen C.]

Nancy, I can say with some degree of confidence that, no, Dean won't weaken before it makes final landfall. The conditions are absolutely perfect for continued strengthening. As for whether it will hit Texas - climatology and history favors that scenario, but the models are still firmly fixed on the Tex/Mex boarder. It'll be a couple more days before we know for sure.

As for anything on the horizon, unfortunately, yes. The models are being fairly consistent in bringing another hurricane across FL around Aug 30-31. It looks like an Andrew type storm - coming across FL, then reforming in the Gulf before heading for Louisiana. All of that is just guesswork right now, though. The models are all picking up on it, but the feature they are picking up on is currently just a wave off of Africa, so until it actually develops it's just an interesting feature on the model runs. I'll keep an eye on it, though.

HI Chris~ Any word on whats's going on with this "wave" you mentioned? Are you still thinking Andrew type storm headed for Fl. around the 30 and 31? Thanks for all the info. It's appreciated!

[ckaranassos]

We leave for Disney on the 28th of Aug. and are watching all this very carefully. Ironically, we travel with my sister and her family and my mother (who we call eeyore or doom and gloom). Give you background my mother hates to travel and comes only because god forbid something bad happens to us she's with us (pleasant I know). So when we booked the trip in April, my mother had immediately checked the Farmers Almanac and said there is going to be a hurricane when we are down there. Please lets prove "the crazy lady" wrong.

[Strmchsr]

HI Chris~ Any word on whats's going on with this "wave" you mentioned? Are you still thinking Andrew type storm headed for Fl. around the 30 and 31?

The big storm for the end of the month is no longer on the radar. As for this wave, I'll update early this afternoon with all of the specifics, but, yes, the models are still on track to have it come through this weekend, though the system looked pretty unorganized to me this morning. However, it looks like it would be a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. If this does become Felix, it doesn't look like it would be a major event for the FL Atlantic Coast. Now, it could cross over into the Gulf and strengthen, but we'll worry about that later.

We leave for my mother had immediately checked the Farmers Almanac and said there is going to be a hurricane when we are down there. Please lets prove "the crazy lady" wrong.

I hadn't checked that. I guess the Farmer's Almanac can get it right on occasions.

[thrillme]

Sigh...I'm kinda sorry Dean turned and went though Mexico. I really LOVE stormy weather. Of course I don't live on the coast line. I'm quite certian everybody was out there with their cheeks puffed saying GO AWAY DEAN!!!

Erin was pretty challenging. I enjoyed the storm while it lasted but I didn't like trying to drive in it. I guess I can secretly hope for another big storm soon but this time hopefully I'll be at home with a kitty on my lap watching tv.

I guess the BIG secret seems to be whenever my DS and I leave the state it POURS. Whenever we go to someplace else it only rains for about 10-30 minutes. Maybe the secret to the weather is ME...I told my Mom the next time we have a drought I'm going to petition the Mayor to come up with a collection to send my son and I to Disney. That way fer shur they'll get rain.

[Lucyrella]

Well I am so happy that Felix has gone "poof" I am hoping that we will have the normal weather that FL is known for and nothing to severe.

This is just a trip of a lifetime for us, and I just want to enjoy every minute of it. I have been watching your reports numerously throughout the days, you are better than the weather chanel for sure!

Thanks so much for what you do, and for keeping all of us so informed.

Did that rain ever find its way to AL?

Your ROCK!

[Strmchsr]

Did that rain ever find its way to AL?

Unfortunately, not yet. We're still hot and dry. However, there is good evidence that the upper air ridge that has sat over us for the last month and kept us so dry (and also kept Dean out of the USA) may finally break down this weekend, bringing hope for rain.

[PAMOUSELOVER]

It has rained three straight days here in Pa.

[Strmchsr]

It has rained three straight days here in Pa.

Don't rub it in. We haven't had a good all day rain in several months.

[thrillme]

It has rained three straight days here in Pa.

That is so crazy...we were just up there (in PA)two weeks ago and just rained about 10-15 minutes for one day.

HOWEVER here in Texas I heard the rain was non stop pretty much for the entire two weeks. I guess Texas missed us.

I still like rainstorms!

[Cinderelley]

Thanks for all of your hard work and dedication Chris. I'm happy to know that it looks like we'll have smooth sailing for our trip.

[belleandcinderellasmom]

We are eagerly watching your forecast as our trip is from September 9 through the 15th. We will be flying from Jackson, MS to Orlando. Please keep the updates coming!

[Strmchsr]

We are eagerly watching your forecast as our trip is from September 9 through the 15th. We will be flying from Jackson, MS to Orlando. Please keep the updates coming!

Since i did my meteorology degree at Miss State, Jackson is a favorite place of mine. Hopefully the weather will be good for you, but I'll keep you updated.

[watch4pixiedust]

Thanks so much Chris/Strmchsr!! I enjoy reading your weather info more than anywhere else! I really like the overview you give including all the models - it's nice knowing all the possibilities.

Now, if we could just get some rain here in NC! There was rain north of us.........and now there's rain south of us...........
....and maybe it would those 100 degree days away, too!

[Strmchsr]

Now, if we could just get some rain here in NC! There was rain north of us.........and now there's rain south of us...........
....and maybe it would those 100 degree days away, too!

Your time will come! Hang in there. We just started getting rain again this week and are finally back to temps around 90. Never thought I'd celebrate 90.

[belleandcinderellasmom]

Thanks for the update! We are about 90 miles south of Jackson and are really huge Miss State fans! Go DAWGS!

[pixiesmimi]

Just got back from our trip tonight and thought I would let you all know that we had a "hurricane-like storm" last Sunday night just as we got to MK and we nearly drowned. Rained most of the night. But it let up enough for them to have the fireworks and Tink actually flew. She was brave considering we had a lot of lightening that night. We had a couple of afternoon showers the rest of the week but today was stormy all over from about noon on all the way from Orlando back to Alabama. We hit some really bad storms on I-10. They are forecasting down there for rain most of this weekend, at least 60%. Sure was nice to get back, though, and see that we had lots of rain here while we were gone. Do you think our drought is broken?

[Strmchsr]

Just got back from our trip tonight and thought I would let you all know that we had a "hurricane-like storm" last Sunday night just as we got to MK and we nearly drowned.

Do you think our drought is broken?

Yep, those afternoon thunderstorms can be pretty strong at times. What you experienced was probably a "wet microburst" which happens when the thunderstorm begins to collapse on itself.

As for the drought, unfortunately, no, I don't think it's broken just yet. We're going to get some short term relief, and the next month or two looks like wetter than normal, but the La Nina is really getting stronger, which usually means drier than normal for the SE. The winter months are usually pretty wet for Alabama, but we may be drier than normal through March or April, which would put us in another hole come next summer. Hopefully the long term models are wrong, and hopefully we'll get enough rain in the short term to help.