WDW Weather Forecast - September 29-Oct 15, 2010

[BigRedDad]

Don't rule anything out. There is to much uncertainty going on and no one knows what is going on. I am flying down on Oct 6th and still a little concerned. Nothing I can do regardless, so worrying too much is a waste of time. All any of us can do is wait and see.

[Strmchsr]

Or are we pretty much in the all clear???

Nothing is in the clear yet. Just way too much uncertainty. What I stated in the forecast was only from the 12z model runs and things seem to be changing from run to run. So, stay tuned and we should know more in another day or two.

[BigRedDad]

I think I speak for everyone traveling the beginning of October. This storm has been nothing short of a pain to watch. The weather systems are all over the place. I can only hope that some of the models are correct leaving this storm in Central America or still passing over FL on Oct 2-3.

All I can say is the next 5 days are going to be a pain to watch.

[Strmchsr]

I think I speak for everyone traveling the beginning of October. This storm has been nothing short of a pain to watch.

Amen! It's been a nightmare to forecast, too. Honestly, in all my years of doing this I don't think I've ever seen a situation this complicated. Hopefully ya'll will bear with me and I'll give you the best info I can.

The afternoon models aren't changing much. Still showing this system hitting on Wednesday with another storm moving in Oct 5-6. I'll give a full update around 2 CDT.

[YatesMom]

If one/both of these were to hit during a trip to WDW...is it typically a one day thing or do the effects of the storm rain out the days before/after? I could manage expectations around one day of entertaining the kids when they know they are but mere minutes from all the rides and attractions, but if something of this magnitude will generally ruin several days in a row, that's a horse of another color...Any advice you could give would be appreciated. THANKS!

[Strmchsr]

If one/both of these were to hit during a trip to WDW...is it typically a one day thing or do the effects of the storm rain out the days before/after?

In general, you don't see parks closed more than 1 day. It all depends on the timing of the storm, but only once in the entire almost 40 year history of Disney World have they been closed for more than 1 day due to a hurricane.

[YatesMom]

Thanks for all the info...will keep my eyes on your thread for the remainder of the week....hopefully we'll get some good news for Oct 5-6 by then. Would love to see it go poof and disappear.

[Strmchsr]

Would love to see it go poof and disappear.

That's a very real possibility. It all depends on if the "parent" low stays in the western Caribbean and spawns "baby" lows that develop into these tropical systems (as some of the models are saying) or if the entire parent low gets swept to the east (as other models are saying). Hopefully we'll know by tomorrow afternoon which of those two scenarios are going to pan out.

[BigRedDad]

How painful is this to watch?!?!?! There is no place of interest at the moment in the Caribbean or Atlantic. However, models yesterday showed many areas of interest for growth.

There doesn't seem to be another pressure system coming in from the West Coast. It looks like the current low that was supposed to drag Matthew back moved east enough to leave Matthew and push away the storms south of Cuba away.

[Strmchsr]

There doesn't seem to be another pressure system coming in from the West Coast. It looks like the current low that was supposed to drag Matthew back moved east enough to leave Matthew and push away the storms south of Cuba away.

Looks like this morning that there will be little pulses coming off the low in the western Caribbean, but none of them develop into anything major. Tropical storm status, possibly, but not a major hurricane. So, Wednesday will probably have some thunderstorms, but nothing too bad. Same for Oct 5. However, there are other potential storms out there that could be major IF they reach land. It's going to be a LONG couple of weeks watching the tropics.

[Cinderelley]

Looks like this morning that there will be little pulses coming off the low in the western Caribbean, but none of them develop into anything major. Tropical storm status, possibly, but not a major hurricane. So, Wednesday will probably have some thunderstorms, but nothing too bad. Same for Oct 5. However, there are other potential storms out there that could be major IF they reach land. It's going to be a LONG couple of weeks watching the tropics.

Will any of this unpredictable weather affect my flight from Phoenix to Orlando on Wednesday?

[Strmchsr]

Will any of this unpredictable weather affect my flight from Phoenix to Orlando on Wednesday?

Very possibly. It's going to entirely depend upon timing. The system doesn't look like it will be all that big, so I don't expect am impact of 12-18 hours like we can sometimes see with a tropical storm. It's very possible, however, that there will be a 3-4 hour block where MCO is grounded. Exactly when that is, though, I can't say just yet. Some models bring it in late Wednesday and others on Thursday morning. I think you'll make it, regardless. Just be prepared for potential delays.

[brivers222]

Our arrival dates (oct 9th) are looking a little better now the closer we get... Are there any issues with roads going to florida (heading from Michigan on I75) that would be closed due to flooding?

Just wondering if there was any issues driving down in the rain/storm other than the obvious visability?

[GrumpyFan]

I don't want to send anyone into a panic, but The Weather Chanel has a good article today titled, "The Next Tropical Threat", you can see it on their site. It gives some good details, if you're interested, and pictures of what might happen next with the remnants of Matthew. I should add too, that they basically say alot of what Strmchsr has already said, only they have fancy slides to show off.

So, Matthew has "officially" dissipated. But there is there still a conflagration of thunderstorms in the western Caribbean.

A sprawling area of low pressure remains, in the wake of Matthew, extending well into the western Caribbean Sea.

Forecast guidance indicates the broad area of low pressure may try to gather itself and strengthen later this week, possibly becoming the next named storm, "Nicole".

That said, where would this system go?

High-pressure aloft over the northern Gulf and southern U.S. will weaken and shift eastward to the Atlantic thanks to a dip in the jet stream aloft carving southward out of the Midwest.

This would provide an "alley" for any tropical entity lurking in the northwest Caribbean to be drawn to toward the north or northeast, toward the Southeast U.S.

The bottom line is that in either case the pattern would be favorable for a tropical system to come northward and impact the United States, most likely Florida, possibly the Southeast coast.

So, stay tuned. It looks like they're saying that IF this does happen, it will quickly move to the Northeast, so, the impact may only be brief (a day or so).

[Strmchsr]

Are there any issues with roads going to florida (heading from Michigan on I75) that would be closed due to flooding?

No, it's been a pretty dry summer all over the south this year. We could probably take 2-3 big time tropical systems before flooding would even start to be a concern. What's forecast to move over Florida wouldn't last long enough to present driving problems unless the storm itself were hitting that day.

[Strmchsr]

I should add too, that they basically say alot of what Strmchsr has already said, only they have fancy slides to show off.

Maybe we need to have another Intercot fund-raising drive so I can post all those fancy slides too.

[GrumpyFan]

Our arrival dates (oct 9th) are looking a little better now the closer we get... Are there any issues with roads going to florida (heading from Michigan on I75) that would be closed due to flooding?

Just wondering if there was any issues driving down in the rain/storm other than the obvious visability?

It's too far out to predict, but unless a storm hits next week and camps out over TN, GA or FL, you should be okay. Several years back there was a storm system (forget the name) that hit south Georgia and caused lots of flooding. I think the system stalled out, similar to what Matthew has done in central america this weekend, and dumped heavy amounts of rain in just a few days, overflowing all the rivers and streams in the areas. Most tropical systems tend to move pretty fast and dissipate pretty quickly once they hit land, but occasionally, something like this happens. Hopefully, nothing like this is imminent in the next couple of weeks.

As of now though, I don't think there are any closings along I-75. There is a website that has national updates for highways. It's a government site, run by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), just Google "National Traffic and Road Closure" and it should be the first link. They have lots of great information available, including something I wasn't aware of, 511 which a phone number you can dial for traffic and road info. But, check your state and carrier because it's not necessarily free everywhere.

National Traffic and Road Closure Information

[brivers222]

As of now though, I don't think there are any closings along I-75. There is a website that has national updates for highways. It's a government site, run by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), just Google "National Traffic and Road Closure" and it should be the first link. They have lots of great information available, including something I wasn't aware of, 511 which a phone number you can dial for traffic and road info. But, check your state and carrier because it's not necessarily free everywhere.

National Traffic and Road Closure Information

oh excellent, thank you very much

[Cinderelley]

Very possibly. It's going to entirely depend upon timing. The system doesn't look like it will be all that big, so I don't expect am impact of 12-18 hours like we can sometimes see with a tropical storm. It's very possible, however, that there will be a 3-4 hour block where MCO is grounded. Exactly when that is, though, I can't say just yet. Some models bring it in late Wednesday and others on Thursday morning. I think you'll make it, regardless. Just be prepared for potential delays.

Could it be a bumpy ride?

[Strmchsr]

Could it be a bumpy ride?

Definitely. I've had a few rides on the Hurricane Hunter in my day and we didn't call it the Comet for nothing.

I don't think it'll be too bad, but be prepared for a pretty bumpy ride just in case. If turbulence makes you nervous, check the links under the travel impact section in the forecast.