WDW Weather Forecast - November 30-Dec 16, 2013

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Saturday pm, November 30, 2013
Today has turned out very nice with a high of 75. Tomorrow will be 77-78 and sunny. Monday could see scattered showers develop ahead of a front. The high will be 73-75 and will drop as the front passes. It looks like the best rain chance will be early Monday morning and impact on the parks should be minimal. Tuesday through Saturday looks dry with highs 73-75 on Tuesday and then 77-79 for Wednesday and Thursday and up to 80-82 for Friday and Saturday.

Long range...Dec 8 looks dry with a high around 80, but then rain moves in with a front on Dec 9. Dec 10 clears with a high in the mid 70s but then a significant rain event moves in on Dec 11. Now, I'm skeptical about everything in voodooland, but that Dec 11 event I'm more so than usual. It looks like it comes from no where. I expect it to be gone on the next run or two. Dec 12-16 looks mostly dry with highs in the upper 70s.

Travel Impact
No major issues today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
The 2013 hurricane season ends today with nothing on the boards. This season will go down as the 14th quietest since 1851 with an ACE of 30. Definitely a hugely blown forecast by the those in the spring predicting a huge season but it goes to what I say constantly, which is a large amount of humility is required in this business and long range forecasts are just worthless.

[brivers222]

YAY heading there TOMORROW!

[DisneyDadfromPittsburgh]

Awesome. We arrive Saturday for five days!

[GoldenAurora]

Hope the forecast keeps looking good! I'm 10 days out, fingers crossed!

[Ltmoko]

We arrive on 15 - 24. Hope weather is good!!!

[DisneyBarb]

YAY, We are heading down on the 16th and was a little nervous yesterday, although I know it can change again. Weather forecasters here (Mass) are getting excited about potential snow mid next week, I'm guessing that will change a few times also. Thanks for the update!

[Strmchsr]

YAY, We are heading down on the 16th and was a little nervous yesterday, although I know it can change again.

The only thing certain about voodooland (beyond 7 days) is that nothing is certain. That's why I'm loathe to even call it a forecast beyond 7 days. More just reporting what the models say.

I hope you all have great trips this month!

[DisneyBarb]

Thanks Chris for the update! Packing rain ponchos and hoping for the best (we will be there 16th - 21st). Every forecast I have read says something different which I'm guessing they are looking at the 2 different models!

Beats a cold day here anytime!!

[Strmchsr]

Every forecast I have read says something different which I'm guessing they are looking at the 2 different models!

You're right. Multiple models saying different things. However, this evening the GFS seems to be coming over to the NAM solution. Both models this evening are showing heavy rain/thunderstorms starting Friday afternoon lasting into Saturday morning. If that timing as right there would be rain both days, but neither day would be a total washout. I hope you have a great trip!

[DisneyBarb]

Both models this evening are showing heavy rain/thunderstorms starting Friday afternoon lasting into Saturday morning. If that timing as right there would be rain both days, but neither day would be a total washout. I hope you have a great trip!

I can live with that! Appreciate the work you do to update this thread! Thanks!

[Crow]

thanks keeping an eye on Nov 30-Dec 6

[PopPhan]

OOOOHHHH!!! Getting excited now! My arrival date slips into voodooland today!!!

Thanks, Chris, for doing this labor of love for all of us!

[IloveJack]

I should get packing. We're in "voodoo land" right now! 9 more days!

[SurferStitch]

At least Dec. 5th is still in voodooland... We're going to MVMCP that night!! No rain!!!

[SurferStitch]

Wow... I've been following three different weather sources, and all of them are completely different for our visit there (12/4-12/13).

It was the same way when we went in October of 2012. Back then, one source nailed it, and I'm hoping that source is right again.

[Strmchsr]

Keep in mind, as always, that voodooland is never a forecast, just model reporting. And, what you see from a lot of sources is just computer data from one model (weather.com, weather underground, etc). No human interaction there, which makes the long range stuff even a bigger waste of time. So, hang tight. You'll be out of voodooland before you know it.

[Crow]

arrive Saturday and leave Friday the 6th. thanks for the update. Hopes its good all that wk

[Katzateer]

Arriving Monday- hope the warmer than normal temps and no rain happens!! thanks for the report!