Math and FastPass+. My Fears

[Jared]

If there was no FP those folks in the FP line would be in the stand-by lines anyway, so they'd be ahead of you one way or the other.

Ian, I'm generally with you here, but I'm not convinced this is completely true.

If Fastpass didn't exist, all of the imaginary line-waiting placeholders would all turn into real people waiting in line. That's obvious.

But would all of those people be waiting in the same line that they are instead holding a Fastpass for? In other words: Now, if I walk up to Space Mountain and see a 60-minute wait, I simply get a Fastpass and the imaginary me gets in line while the real me goes to do other things. In a world without Fastpass, if I walk up to Space Mountain and see a 60-minute wait, or a 45-minute wait, or whatever it is, I'm probably balking and moving on to something else. Does that make sense?

Fastpass has essentially eliminated "balking" as an option. It allows people to wait in line virtually with no incentive not to wait in line. It also lets people, in some situations, to wait in multiple lines virtually at the same time, which I believe does in fact lead to longer waits at certain headliner attractions.

I don't know. This is all above my pay grade. But I'm just not totally sure that all of the people who have Fastpasses would necessarily be waiting in the standby line if Fastpass didn't exist.

[Jared]

Just to further demonstrate that this is all clearly above my pay grade and I really don't understand it, here's a question:

Why is an attraction's hourly capacity relevant in this discussion? A few people have mentioned it as proof that Fastpass doesn't artificially increase wait times, but I'm having trouble getting why it's related.

By that logic -- again, as far as I can glean with my limited brainpower -- all attractions should have a maximum wait time based on its capacity, but that's clearly not the case.

I'm so confused.

[Main Street Jim]

Why is an attraction's hourly capacity relevant in this discussion? A few people have mentioned it as proof that Fastpass doesn't artificially increase wait times, but I'm having trouble getting why it's related.

Nothing to be, or get, confused about.

Reason why I mentioned the capacity, is because the number of FastPasses distributed during an operating day is a percentage of the hourly capacity (80%). If a park is open later (with the exception of EMH's), then there's more FP's to get distributed.

Again...you can only have a finite number of guests in a park. You can only put so many people onto a ride at any given time. Again, I'll use Space as an example.

6 people per rocket - you can't get any more people than that into one rocket.

13 rockets per side - 6 x 13 = 78 people *on* the ride - on one side - at a time. Multiply times the two sides, you get 156 people actually *on the ride*.

The attraction (*any* attraction) is going to take "so long" to experience. You can't *make* the attraction go any faster - without some sort of safe interval between rockets.

And with only so many operating hours in a day at the parks, you can only fit so many people through the ride in one operating day. The line for the queue is only going to be "so long", because not *every* single guest will be in *one* attraction line.

It also lets people, in some situations, to wait in multiple lines virtually at the same time, which I believe does in fact lead to longer waits at certain headliner attractions.

I'd have to say "Incorrect" on this one. A single person can only *physically* be in one line at one time. The Fastpass system is designed to remove that physical human from one attraction queue and allow them to be in another (it *may* be at another "headliner" because they already hold an active FastPass. But because there are other guests who hold FP's to that second attraction, the line is still the same wait time. Who knows?). The "virtual" human isn't waiting in a stand-by line; they're waiting on the "FastPass" line side of things, even though they may physically be somewhere else.

[joonyer]

Just to further demonstrate that this is all clearly above my pay grade and I really don't understand it, here's a question:

Why is an attraction's hourly capacity relevant in this discussion? A few people have mentioned it as proof that Fastpass doesn't artificially increase wait times, but I'm having trouble getting why it's related.

By that logic -- again, as far as I can glean with my limited brainpower -- all attractions should have a maximum wait time based on its capacity, but that's clearly not the case.

I'm so confused.

OK I'll give it a shot. Let's say (for the purpose of this discussion) that an attraction has a capacity of 100 riders per hour.

If 500 people want to ride and they all are in line at the same time, then the people at the end of the queue will have a 5-hour wait until they finish the ride.

Now add FassPasses to the equation. If 200 of those people have a FastPass they will get to get in line somewhere ahead of the folks at the end of the standby line (which would have 300 people in it now). BUT, the people at the end of the standby line would still have to wait 5 hours (and no longer) to ride. The ride still only through puts 100 riders per hour, no matter what order you put the riders in.

It all comes down to where you are in the queue. Get there first thing, and you are in the front of the line. Using a FastPass just allows some guests to "cut" in line, and thus wait less time, but it doesn't change the overall wait time for those in the back of the line. If 500 people are ahead of you, either actually or virtually, you still have to wait the same amount of time.

The complaint about standby times increasing is really comes from your perception of where are are in queue. If you get in the standby line and there are 100 actual people ahead of you, then you would expect it should take you 1 hour to ride. Now add 50 FastPassers who are allowed to get on the ride somewhere ahead of you, then it will take you 1.5 hours to ride, so in that sense it does apparently increase SOME guests wait time in the line over the case IF there were no FastPasses. But remember those FastPassers ARE virtually in the queue ahead of you, they just aren't visible until they show up and get in the FP queue. So the overall wait time is not actually increased by having fast passes. Remember Disney limits the number of Fastpasses issued per hour, so only a limited number of those 500 quests in our example can get a FastPass in any particular hour.

The same number of guests can ride an attraction per hour (or day), whether there is a FastPass option or not, so that is why FastPasses do not affect overall wait times. They don't have any effect on ride capacity. But they do have a perceived effect on some guests wait times, depending on where they may be within the queue, when the Fastpassers get admitted.

[MrPeetrie]

I did not articulate (defend) my fear well enough and I see I've upset some people. Without attempting to anger anyone, I will try again to better explain my position.

For this discussion:

A = Attendance. (It changes from day to day, but for my examples it will be a constant)

F = Total Number of FastPasses available on a given day at Magic Kingdom. (There is a finite number here. I'm not privy to the answer, but if every available time slot were passed out, there would be a definite number.)

X = Total Number of FastPasses used. On an ordinary day X <= .5*F. In fact, it's probably much less.

Today, a coefficient of A impacts X. So if the crowd is light, X will be small. If a ride has its FastPass Kiosk covered, ALL the ride throughput will come from the standby line. If A is heavy, then as others in the know have stated, it will operate at a 80-20 ratio. The point is, A affects X, which then determines how the line is handled.

However, once the new system is in place, A will have NO EFFECT ON X. You will have three months to select your FastPass time slots. Moreover, X will almost certainly = F. Think this through and I hope you'll see my point.

When the park opens at 9:00 a.m. EVERY AVAILABLE FASTPASS SLOT WILL ALREADY BE DESIGNATED That means EVERY ride will run at a 80-20 ratio, servicing FastPasses before standbys. I want to repeat that: every ride will handle its standby at an 80-20 ratio because all the FastPasses will have been distributed. That's why the kiosks will be going away. On a given day, each guest will have had three months to select their time slots. Unless people refuse to use it, most -- if not all -- of the available FastPass slots for the park will be assigned before rope drop. And they're setting up FastPasses on rides that heretofore did not need them, like Pirates of the Caribbean. (Want to ride POTC without an hour wait? Better have a FastPass. Want to ride It's a Small World without an hour wait? Better have a FastPass! (if it has one. I haven't been there in a while.))

Does that explain my fear any better?

[Altair]

The Fastpass system is designed to remove that physical human from one attraction queue and allow them to be in another.

So that person is in two lines at one time, making one of the lines longer than it should be and thus increasing wait time for the stand-by line. You have just artificially increased park attendance.

[Nascfan]

Mr. Peetrie, I'm not in a position to dispute nor confirm your fear of longer standby waits after FP+, but I feel I can dispel some of your "facts". I'm not sure where you are getting 90 days from, but it's pretty common knowledge that will not happen. It's going to be a max of 60 days in advance, and even that is not set in stone. Pull up youtube and search on mousesteps weekly. These people have been part of the test several times and have some very good information out there. Also, kiosks will not be going away, in fact there will be several positioned throughout the parks, and they demonstrate these in their videos. Finally, there is NO evidence that all FP+'s will be distributed before the day of, in fact, they address that very issue in their videos. So, my advice to everyone is to relax a little bit and see what this really does before we claim armagedon. If you are able to be part of a test, go for it and give Disney your feedback. If you are not able to be part of a test, email or call Disney with some of your concerns and get answers from the source.

[MrPeetrie]

I did get to test it out on our September trip. I waited about a week or so before I tried reserving any times. The options available to me were not anything for which I wanted to FastPass, nor were the available times convenient as we had ADRs that conflicted. (The good things, like preferred parade seating, were already gone.) I used it for one attraction anyway, but I forgot the time because I didn't have a ticket. So, I'm not a good judge.

I have a long, long (agonizing long) time before my next trip. By the time we go back, I'll know if it's a hit or miss. But until then, I only have time for contemplation. There are so many things Disney rolls out that I highly anticipate (expansions, the RFID bracelets, etc.), but this is something I am not excited about. And since I won't be there for a while, I'm just expressing some concerns. Who know? Perhaps, forums like this raise questions for designers and Imagineers that allow for adjustments prior to implementation.

[Main Street Jim]

So that person is in two lines at one time, making one of the lines longer than it should be and thus increasing wait time for the stand-by line. You have just artificially increased park attendance.

No, because, depending on the attraction, that person is not actually "counted" on one ride until they *physically* go through the turnstile (Speedway), Merge point (Space), or exit (Splash Mountain).

[Tekneek]

With the Magic Bands and the stations , it seems that a lot of these kiosks are at attractions that really have no use for FP+ except to appear that you are building value and convenience by knowing what time you can essentially walk on a ride with little wait even if that ride has little or no wait to begin with.

They had to add it to everything or FP+ would surely have been a bust. If 60 days out, everybody went on and found out NO FP+ were available for anything, people would go nuts. So we're going to have people scheduling FP+ for the most ridiculous of things, since they will "have to schedule something" despite all the top tier attractions being booked up. It is absurd that Disney would even accept a FP+ booking for an attraction that is very likely to be a walk-on at that same moment.

When I was a much younger adult, I used to think that most people had the same taste as me in music. I would call up the local record store on release day and ask them to hold the latest CD from an obscure band. Most of the time they would do it, but one day this girl says, "I don't need to hold any for you, we're not going to sell out of those today." After that, I realized that there would be plenty of CDs and I didn't need to rush down or get any special accommodation for it. Disney needs a version of that girl on the other side of FP+ to say, "Oh, you're not going to need that one. You're wasting that slot reserving that time for that attraction."

[CaptSmee]

I agree that we reserved FP+ more than we normally would use FP. I'm pretty sure that they're limiting how many you get during each time frame just like the old system.

I completely agree with you about merchandise. I would buy anything that k liked & its always the same 'old same 'old.

[TheVBs]

I used it for one attraction anyway, but I forgot the time because I didn't have a ticket. So, I'm not a good judge.

This is probably what would happen to us. Without a ticket I'll have to write the time down on something else and take it with us, because we'll forget otherwise.

[Tekneek]

This is probably what would happen to us. Without a ticket I'll have to write the time down on something else and take it with us, because we'll forget otherwise.

Did you have the app on a smartphone with you? It would make a lot of sense for the app to push notifications to the device of choice, or for MDE to send an SMS to your number of choice to remind you of your FP+ reservations at defined time intervals. It's a major oversight if they didn't build that in.

[sara114]

What happens if the ride you are 'scheduled' to ride breaks down? (ie. Splash Mtn) How are they going to work around that?

[TheVBs]

Did you have the app on a smartphone with you? It would make a lot of sense for the app to push notifications to the device of choice, or for MDE to send an SMS to your number of choice to remind you of your FP+ reservations at defined time intervals. It's a major oversight if they didn't build that in.

Haven't actually been to the parks to try this out yet. And, we don't have smartphones. In fact, we usually don't even bring our cell phones with us, but we did sometimes on the last trip, just because we knew there would be times when we'd split up. I'm sure at some point we'll end up with smartphones, and if we think the app will help, we'll get it. But, wouldn't get a smartphone just to make this work. So unfortunately, I can't answer your question about whether the app does that for you.

[WDWdriver]

What happens if the ride you are 'scheduled' to ride breaks down? (ie. Splash Mtn) How are they going to work around that?

They have actually thought of that. If your FP attraction breaks down before or during your FP window, you will quickly receive an email (assuming you are carrying an email capable phone). The email will offer you a list of alternative attractions that will accept your wristband or RFID card during the same window.

And what if the breakdown occurs late in the day? The email you receive will list attractions that will accept you the following day without any switching of reservations on your part.

And if you have no way to receive the email, you can go to any of the MyMagic+ kiosks in the park to get the same information.

[Main Street Jim]

What happens if the ride you are 'scheduled' to ride breaks down? (ie. Splash Mtn) How are they going to work around that?

If your FP is "scheduled" for a time that an attraction is down due to "technical difficulties", they *should* honor all FP's that "expired" during that downtime.

[Dulcee]

I did not articulate (defend) my fear well enough and I see I've upset some people. Without attempting to anger anyone, I will try again to better explain my position.

For this discussion:

A = Attendance. (It changes from day to day, but for my examples it will be a constant)

F = Total Number of FastPasses available on a given day at Magic Kingdom. (There is a finite number here. I'm not privy to the answer, but if every available time slot were passed out, there would be a definite number.)

X = Total Number of FastPasses used. On an ordinary day X <= .5*F. In fact, it's probably much less.

Today, a coefficient of A impacts X. So if the crowd is light, X will be small. If a ride has its FastPass Kiosk covered, ALL the ride throughput will come from the standby line. If A is heavy, then as others in the know have stated, it will operate at a 80-20 ratio. The point is, A affects X, which then determines how the line is handled.

However, once the new system is in place, A will have NO EFFECT ON X. You will have three months to select your FastPass time slots. Moreover, X will almost certainly = F. Think this through and I hope you'll see my point.

When the park opens at 9:00 a.m. EVERY AVAILABLE FASTPASS SLOT WILL ALREADY BE DESIGNATED That means EVERY ride will run at a 80-20 ratio, servicing FastPasses before standbys. I want to repeat that: every ride will handle its standby at an 80-20 ratio because all the FastPasses will have been distributed. That's why the kiosks will be going away. On a given day, each guest will have had three months to select their time slots. Unless people refuse to use it, most -- if not all -- of the available FastPass slots for the park will be assigned before rope drop. And they're setting up FastPasses on rides that heretofore did not need them, like Pirates of the Caribbean. (Want to ride POTC without an hour wait? Better have a FastPass. Want to ride It's a Small World without an hour wait? Better have a FastPass! (if it has one. I haven't been there in a while.))

Does that explain my fear any better?

I think your making assumptions here that can't be made...

I'd like to see what the actual distribution to use ratio is for the current fast pass system. I think your estimate of 50% is really, really low.

Also attendance will always effect the number of fast passes used. Whether those fast passes are assigned two months in advance or two hours. You need a "body" assigned to each pass. More people, more fast passes used (of the allotted and assumed constant pool). If 100 people visit in July and each can get 3 fast passes in a day then you have 300 assigned fast passes. If you only have 50 visit in August, still at three fast passes each, then you only have 150 assigned and obviously still less used then July.

Actually I'd wager that some folks will end up with less fast passes then used in the past. I know when we planned accordingly we'd used 6-7 in a single day. Now everyone is limited to a constant of 3, giving disney further control of the variables within the system.

You're also assuming that every person who books a trip will actually use Fast pass plus, not every guest uses the current system. I doubt every guest would use this new one.


I really do think WDW has minds (or computers) behind this that are better then numbers then you or I. I still think this is a lot of panic over nothing...

[Dsnygirl]

I have not read through this entire thread - I got about 3/4 of the way through and was too confused to continue.

But - as an original "naysayer" to this whole thing, I have to say that things I learned from CM's in the queues last week have made me feel better.

1 - whether 60 or 90 days out, you are only going to be allowed to book 3 FP+ rides/day. The rest will be getting "real" FP's while you are in the parks, if you so choose.

2 - every ride we saw had a FP+ being added to it, with the exception of the carousel at MK. So, with that in mind, many first timers (or people with children too small to ride the big rides) are going to pick rides I have no intention of FP'ing. That leaves more rides open for me to pick.

So - if on my next trip I have picked my meals 180 days out, that means I also have a pretty good idea which parks I will be in, based off my meals and released park hours. Granted, that changes - even this last trip, we re-arranged ADR's and changed parks the day before d/t forecasted weather.

But - if I have been "forced" to pick parks d/t hours and meals, suffice to say picking 3 "special" rides to FP+ in our "park choice of the day" shouldn't be all that difficult. And b/c I can ONLY choose 3, I no longer feel that I am being forced to plan out my entire day. I would honestly be more than happy to know I can get to DHS at 10am with a FP+ time of 1pm and be able to relax and ride RnRc 5 times in the meantime!!

Anyway - like I said, I was originally somebody TOTALLY against this new system - but I saw it working flawlessly in the dining arena, and working really well for those people we saw trialing it while we were there. So, I am carefully optimistic that maybe this WILL work out well for us in the future.

[Jared]

1 - whether 60 or 90 days out, you are only going to be allowed to book 3 FP+ rides/day. The rest will be getting "real" FP's while you are in the parks, if you so choose

Blythe, I'm pretty sure this is only true during the testing phase. Once the system is fully implemented, the plan is to eliminate the traditional Fastpass system.

I know some front-line Cast Members have been saying otherwise, but I'm pretty sure they're incorrect. Can anybody confirm?