Math and FastPass+. My Fears

[MrPeetrie]

Before I begin my dissent, let me first say that despite know the original FastPass system lengthens stand-by wait times, I LOVE it and use it whenever necessary. I have little children and, as wait times grow in length, it becomes indispensable. However, on lighter days we rarely use it. It's a "Use-it-as-needed" perk.

Now my analogy:
Assume for a Magical second there were no FastPasses anymore. If at any given time (for this example, let's say noon) there are 5,000 guests in Standby at the Magic Kingdom then there are exactly 5,000 people in line. Fairly simple. But if I am holding a FastPass, then there are actually 5,001. There are the 5,000 seen, plus an imaginary me in line, holding a place until it's my turn for the real me to take the imaginary me's place. And if it's noon and my return time is 2:30 then there is a 2-and-a-half hour wait of imaginary guests in line unseen. So, using our example, if it's noon and there are 5,000 people in standby PLUS another 2,000 FastPasses distributed, there are actually 7,000 people in line. We can only see the 5,000, but the others are imaginary place-holders.

Under the current system, we use FastPass ONLY AS NEEDED. If we go on a lighter season and the park is manageable, we rarely use FastPass. Sometimes the kiosks are covered as the crowd is lighter.

However, three months from vacation, no one knows how the crowd will be. All of us will reserve every FastPass available to us everyday of our vacation -- needed or not. And as a result, they WILL be needed because we've "artificially" inflated the wait times.

So using my example, it's noon and there are 5,000 in standby with 7,000 FastPasses distributed then there are 12,000 guests waiting in line. And if at noon my return time is 5:00 p.m. then there is a 5-hour wait of unseen place holders until its my turn. This will make spontaneous riding very difficult. We will probably only ride the reserve rides because, despite lines looking short, they will be very long due to the imaginary place-holders. Right now, we never use FastPass for Pirates of the Caribbean. But 3 months away, you better believe I'm reserving a ride because I want to make sure I ride it at least once on our trip.

So why do this? It's billed as an enhancement. When you hear the PLUS side, it sounds reasonable. Currently, we've only managed to ride Toy Story Midway Mania once in two 10-day vacations. Why? We never make it there in time and the FastPasses will have been used up by then. So in that case, I see the positive. But I don't think that's the real reason.

Look at the Dining Plan: It, too, is billed as a PLUS -- a way to better budget your vacation. But look at it's practical implementation. It's made ADRs difficult to come by. Spontaneous meals are more rare. The food quality has dropped off, albeit slightly. And I think the real reason and the stated reason are at odds. While it's advertised as a budgeting PLUS, I think it's a clever attempt to separate the guest from more money.

Studies show, guests budget a certain amount for a vacation and usually stay within that budget, during their stay. A large portion of the budget goes to dining. So, if I bring $5,000 to spend, I will dedicate a large portion to dining and the rest is available for shopping. I believe Disney thought if they could get you to pay the dining portion prior to arrival, the guest would still bring $5,000 to spend, hoping to separate the guest from the whole $5,000 on merchandise. I don't think the Dining Plan is a PLUS at all. I think it's a money grab and it's having negative effects. Others will disagree. And that's good to have that debate.

So back to the FastPass+. I think, while advertised as an enhancement, it is merely a way to have your day micro-managed, leaving much more time for merchandise-purchasing at the expense of attraction-attending. You will ride less, be bored more, and hopefully, spend more money in the stores.

Here's an idea: Put better merchandise in the stores and we'll buy it. Disney people are like no other consumer. We LOVE our Disney. If it's something we want, we'll pay for it. But don't coerce us into a purchase by leaving us with not many other options to spend our time.

Now, I'm not ready to throw the baby out with the bath water. I LOVE coming to WDW and I think they'll work the bugs out. But I have concerns. I'm curious to hear others' comments. Help persuade me to be optimistic.

[spoiledraf]

I believe there will be a limit to the number of fast passes per day available which will blow your numbers out of the water. I tend to believe it is in the best interest of Disney to give the best experience possible. If the test don't work out I think the will can the idea or tinker with it. They have been pretty good at imagineering for many years so I think they will figure it out. Maybe I'm being a little optimistic but that's my opinion and I'm stickin too it! ;-)

[MargaretMessler]

I subscribe to the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy, and I really don't see where the old system didn't work fine. I use it more or less like the original poster, as needed. If a line is less than 20 minutes I don't bother, whether it's available or not. I think the only thing they needed to improve on with the original system, was to enforce the time windows, which they have done.

But that's just me. I'm still irritated that I need to plan ADRs so far ahead. I just don't like to live my vacation by a strict schedule. I do enough of that at work.

I'm hoping that the FP+ system will work wonderful and prove me wrong, or that WDW will "can it" as you put it.

[Opus X]

I believe there will be a limit to the number of fast passes per day available which will blow your numbers out of the water. I tend to believe it is in the best interest of Disney to give the best experience possible. If the test don't work out I think the will can the idea or tinker with it. They have been pretty good at imagineering for many years so I think they will figure it out. Maybe I'm being a little optimistic but that's my opinion and I'm stickin too it! ;-)

Oh, my goodness....Well stated.
It gets a bit old...the amount of negativeness..Concerning this new fast pass system and it hasn't even been "fully" rolled out so to speak. Not one member of this or any forum knows exactly how it will be...(a lot like to think they do) and so many folks are talking like its the end of the world.
Seriously, does anyone really think Disney would make a day at the park so miserable...no one would return? Thats absurd. I have a much higher opinion and i would hope most would of Disney Parks.
Than that. In all my years of traveling to WDW...Since 1990 as an adult. I have never been disappointed...or "let down".
I too am optimistic, this will all be for the better.
I am optimistic because I have NO reason not to be.
Especially, when it comes to WDW/DLR....

[Opus X]

Before I begin my dissent, let me first say that despite know the original FastPass system lengthens stand-by wait times, I LOVE it and use it whenever necessary. I have little children and, as wait times grow in length, it becomes indispensable. However, on lighter days we rarely use it. It's a "Use-it-as-needed" perk.

Now my analogy:
Assume for a Magical second there were no FastPasses anymore. If at any given time (for this example, let's say noon) there are 5,000 guests in Standby at the Magic Kingdom then there are exactly 5,000 people in line. Fairly simple. But if I am holding a FastPass, then there are actually 5,001. There are the 5,000 seen, plus an imaginary me in line, holding a place until it's my turn for the real me to take the imaginary me's place. And if it's noon and my return time is 2:30 then there is a 2-and-a-half hour wait of imaginary guests in line unseen. So, using our example, if it's noon and there are 5,000 people in standby PLUS another 2,000 FastPasses distributed, there are actually 7,000 people in line. We can only see the 5,000, but the others are imaginary place-holders.

Under the current system, we use FastPass ONLY AS NEEDED. If we go on a lighter season and the park is manageable, we rarely use FastPass. Sometimes the kiosks are covered as the crowd is lighter.

However, three months from vacation, no one knows how the crowd will be. All of us will reserve every FastPass available to us everyday of our vacation -- needed or not. And as a result, they WILL be needed because we've "artificially" inflated the wait times.

So using my example, it's noon and there are 5,000 in standby with 7,000 FastPasses distributed then there are 12,000 guests waiting in line. And if at noon my return time is 5:00 p.m. then there is a 5-hour wait of unseen place holders until its my turn. This will make spontaneous riding very difficult. We will probably only ride the reserve rides because, despite lines looking short, they will be very long due to the imaginary place-holders. Right now, we never use FastPass for Pirates of the Caribbean. But 3 months away, you better believe I'm reserving a ride because I want to make sure I ride it at least once on our trip.

So why do this? It's billed as an enhancement. When you hear the PLUS side, it sounds reasonable. Currently, we've only managed to ride Toy Story Midway Mania once in two 10-day vacations. Why? We never make it there in time and the FastPasses will have been used up by then. So in that case, I see the positive. But I don't think that's the real reason.

Look at the Dining Plan: It, too, is billed as a PLUS -- a way to better budget your vacation. But look at it's practical implementation. It's made ADRs difficult to come by. Spontaneous meals are more rare. The food quality has dropped off, albeit slightly. And I think the real reason and the stated reason are at odds. While it's advertised as a budgeting PLUS, I think it's a clever attempt to separate the guest from more money.

Studies show, guests budget a certain amount for a vacation and usually stay within that budget, during their stay. A large portion of the budget goes to dining. So, if I bring $5,000 to spend, I will dedicate a large portion to dining and the rest is available for shopping. I believe Disney thought if they could get you to pay the dining portion prior to arrival, the guest would still bring $5,000 to spend, hoping to separate the guest from the whole $5,000 on merchandise. I don't think the Dining Plan is a PLUS at all. I think it's a money grab and it's having negative effects. Others will disagree. And that's good to have that debate.

So back to the FastPass+. I think, while advertised as an enhancement, it is merely a way to have your day micro-managed, leaving much more time for merchandise-purchasing at the expense of attraction-attending. You will ride less, be bored more, and hopefully, spend more money in the stores.

Here's an idea: Put better merchandise in the stores and we'll buy it. Disney people are like no other consumer. We LOVE our Disney. If it's something we want, we'll pay for it. But don't coerce us into a purchase by leaving us with not many other options to spend our time.

Now, I'm not ready to throw the baby out with the bath water. I LOVE coming to WDW and I think they'll work the bugs out. But I have concerns. I'm curious to hear others' comments. Help persuade me to be optimistic.

Way too much time thinking about this!!!
Have a cigar and RELAX...The sun WILL come up tomorrow!!

[Main Street Jim]

Assume for a Magical second there were no FastPasses anymore. If at any given time (for this example, let's say noon) there are 5,000 guests in Standby at the Magic Kingdom then there are exactly 5,000 people in line. Fairly simple. But if I am holding a FastPass, then there are actually 5,001. There are the 5,000 seen, plus an imaginary me in line, holding a place until it's my turn for the real me to take the imaginary me's place.

Incorrect.

Your "imaginary me" would be part of that "5,000" number; not "5,001".

An attraction's hourly capacity is limited (you can only fit so many people on a given attraction at any time). You can't "add" any more people onto an attraction than it will hold.

And if it's noon and my return time is 2:30 then there is a 2-and-a-half hour wait of imaginary guests in line unseen. So, using our example, if it's noon and there are 5,000 people in standby PLUS another 2,000 FastPasses distributed, there are actually 7,000 people in line. We can only see the 5,000, but the others are imaginary place-holders.

Again, incorrect.

The FastPass system (going back to the current/original system in place) is designed to "hold" 80% of an attraction's hourly capacity. I'll explain.

Say that Space Mountain's hourly capacity is 2,000 people per hour.

80% of that number is 1,600. So, theoretically, 1,600 are in the "virtual" (i.e., "inaginary" line) while 400 are in Stand-by *in a given hour* (at full capacity). The *total* number of guests in line, both virtual (holding a FastPass) and in the Stand-by line, is still only 2,000 guests in line. You might *see* more than 400 people in that stand-by line, but, multiply that number by how long the wait time is (for example, if the wait time is 2 hours, there should be 800 people actually in the stand-by line. It sure might seem like a LOT more, but, in reality, it's not. Think of how the queues are laid out - most guests will stand in a queue in single file. 800 people will *look* like a LOT more in a single-file line, than if they were all side-by-side or three-wide.)

There's going to be *only so many people* on the ride at any given time, regardless of how many people are in line. Besides, according to Reedy Creek fire code, there can only be *so many people* in a given attraction building at any one time as well. That's what the queues and Cast Members are outside for - to control that flow of guests and number of guests coming into an attraction.

Does this make sense to anyone?

[seanyred]

Incorrect.

Your "imaginary me" would be part of that "5,000" number; not "5,001".

An attraction's hourly capacity is limited (you can only fit so many people on a given attraction at any time). You can't "add" any more people onto an attraction than it will hold.

Again, incorrect.

The FastPass system (going back to the current/original system in place) is designed to "hold" 80% of an attraction's hourly capacity. I'll explain.

Say that Space Mountain's hourly capacity is 2,000 people per hour.

80% of that number is 1,600. So, theoretically, 1,600 are in the "virtual" (i.e., "inaginary" line) while 400 are in Stand-by *in a given hour* (at full capacity). The *total* number of guests in line, both virtual (holding a FastPass) and in the Stand-by line, is still only 2,000 guests in line. You might *see* more than 400 people in that stand-by line, but, multiply that number by how long the wait time is (for example, if the wait time is 2 hours, there should be 800 people actually in the stand-by line. It sure might seem like a LOT more, but, in reality, it's not. Think of how the queues are laid out - most guests will stand in a queue in single file. 800 people will *look* like a LOT more in a single-file line, than if they were all side-by-side or three-wide.)

There's going to be *only so many people* on the ride at any given time, regardless of how many people are in line. Besides, according to Reedy Creek fire code, there can only be *so many people* in a given attraction building at any one time as well. That's what the queues and Cast Members are outside for - to control that flow of guests and number of guests coming into an attraction.

Does this make sense to anyone?

Yes. This is how I understand the system to work. Plus not to mention that if a bunch of FastPass holders don't show up then the stand-by line will move faster.

[PopPhan]

The FastPass system (going back to the current/original system in place) is designed to "hold" 80% of an attraction's hourly capacity.

THIS is the problem I have with the whole FastPass system. 80% is, in my opinion, way too high a number of "hurry up and wait" passes to be given out with the number of people not using the FP system.

A 50/50 split might go the other way, but it would be more reasonable to those trying to relax and enjoy their day without standing in 60+ minute queues.

60/40 would even be a much better distribution - 60% FP / 40% Stand-By.

I really don't think the 'bean counters' know how much they truly distress the 20 people standing (impatiently) in line while 80 others go through on FastPass.

[Ms. Mode]

I keep reading where "Disney wants to part you from your money" and that's why they try to sale you the DDP; but what about FREE dining? And, let's not forget that Disney is a business.

[Ms. Mode]

THIS is the problem I have with the whole FastPass system. 80% is, in my opinion, way too high a number of "hurry up and wait" passes to be given out with the number of people not using the FP system.

A 50/50 split might go the other way, but it would be more reasonable to those trying to relax and enjoy their day without standing in 60+ minute queues.

60/40 would even be a much better distribution - 60% FP / 40% Stand-By.

I really don't think the 'bean counters' know how much they truly distress the 20 people standing (impatiently) in line while 80 others go through on FastPass.

Maybe they do! Maybe that's part of the thought process behind FP+...just say'n

[hoop de do]

[GoBlueLacheta]

With the Magic Bands and the stations , it seems that a lot of these kiosks are at attractions that really have no use for FP+ except to appear that you are building value and convenience by knowing what time you can essentially walk on a ride with little wait even if that ride has little or no wait to begin with.

As far as numbers are concerned, there are really only a few attractions that "run out" of FP at some point during the day based upon season. It seems more reasonable to reduce or increase the amount of FP available based on attendance numbers.

At Disney World, you have issues at 3 of the slowest loading E-Ticket attractions. Toy Story Mania, Test Track, and Soarin. You want to make sure that if you plan a DW vacation and if these attractions are open that you get to ride, I understand that part, but making one plan what time they are going to ride a continuous circuit ride like Spaceship Earth seems a bit silly.

Also, you have to take into consideration the "types" of rides they are. Almost everyone will want to go on Toy Story Mania as it is not a thrill ride and appeals to all ages.

[Ian]

It's a myth that FP lengthens stand-by lines. Once you recognize that there are a finite number of people who can pass through a line in a given period of time and a finite number of guests it should be readily evident that FP would have no impact on overall wait times.

If there was no FP those folks in the FP line would be in the stand-by lines anyway, so they'd be ahead of you one way or the other.

[PopPhan]

It's a myth that FP lengthens stand-by lines. Once you recognize that there are a finite number of people who can pass through a line in a given period of time and a finite number of guests it should be readily evident that FP would have no impact on overall wait times.

If there was no FP those folks in the FP line would be in the stand-by lines anyway, so they'd be ahead of you one way or the other.

Very true, but the perception of someone standing in a static line while others can just walk up and be allowed on before them is disheartening.

I have been in a stand-by line on Soarin' with no one in the FastPass line and stood there for 15 minutes because the CM was waiting for FP people to come up so he could make his hourly FP quota. (Of course, in the case of Soarin', it really didn't matter because there were two more lines to wait in before boarding anyway!! -- The approach line (from the CM to the boarding area), then the boarding area itself.

It was the same thing with TSMM, but in that case, it was walk on, so the CM didn't hold us back. (YES, there was a time that TSMM actually had NO WAIT!!!! It was during an afternoon session of LMA. The CM told us that when LMA is having a show, TSMM lines go down quite a bit.)

[Aurora]

I have been in a stand-by line on Soarin' with no one in the FastPass line and stood there for 15 minutes because the CM was waiting for FP people to come up so he could make his hourly FP quota.

Yeah, I don't and never have had a problem with people using or not using FPs. I do have a problem with the way the system is carried out by CMs at some rides, specifically Soarin'. I experienced the same thing as PopPhan on a recent trip. There we stood in standby, not moving, while no one was in the FP queue. It was a little kind of crazy.

If a CM is holding the standby line back in favor of FP riders who aren't even there to take their seat, it doesn't matter how much you understand about FP. You tend to get a little miffed.

[WDWdriver]

If a CM is holding the standby line back in favor of FP riders who aren't even there to take their seat, it doesn't matter how much you understand about FP. You tend to get a little miffed.

Sigh . Sounds like another CM training issue, or perhaps a case of inflexibility on the part of the CM's managers. There is a defined ratio of FP vs Standby guests for each attraction, and each CM is trained in working the merge position. But that doesn't (or shouldn't) mean that CMs must strictly apply that ratio. Ideally, CMs should be able to use a little common sense and adjust the ratio according to the situation at the time.

[Main Street Jim]

Sigh . Sounds like another CM training issue, or perhaps a case of inflexibility on the part of the CM's managers. There is a defined ratio of FP vs Standby guests for each attraction, and each CM is trained in working the merge position. But that doesn't (or shouldn't) mean that CMs must strictly apply that ratio. Ideally, CMs should be able to use a little common sense and adjust the ratio according to the situation at the time.

What Ron said.

Whenever I worked at a FP attraction, I *never* had a wait in my FP line. If I "rotated" to FP merge point, and my FP side was backed up, I'd "dump" the FP side first, before I did anything else. Once my FP side was clear of guests, then my "standby" line could move/load more freely. I *kept both lines moving*. If there was say, 150 people in my FP line when I got to the merge position, they got on first before I'd move the standby side. As long as my loaders could load/move people, I could keep the standby line moving as well as keep my FP side clear.

And, like Ron said, it should be "common sense" that if there are no guests in the FP side, then CMs *should* be keeping the standby side moving. But, a LOT of CM's are told *during training*, "80/20", so, that's what they tend to stick to, even when there are no guests on FP. :/

To the original poster:
FastPass does NOT "lengthen" standby wait times. There will *never* be more FastPasses distributed than the number of guests that an attraction can hold, because those are only a percentage of total guest capacity.

[Tekneek]

I tend to believe it is in the best interest of Disney to give the best experience possible.

I wouldn't agree completely with this. Disney merely wants to provide an experience that is good enough to keep the cash rolling in. History indicates that Disney guests don't demand the best possible. They want an experience that is on-par with others, and maybe only marginally better. They also don't mind paying a lot more for it than they used to. If somebody in Disney management started insisting that Disney do the best it possibly could, they would be sacked in short order.

[Tekneek]

And, like Ron said, it should be "common sense" that if there are no guests in the FP side, then CMs *should* be keeping the standby side moving. But, a LOT of CM's are told *during training*, "80/20", so, that's what they tend to stick to, even when there are no guests on FP. :/

Sounds like they're getting a lot more people who do what they're told instead of understanding the purpose/goal and using their own judgment to get there. I think we've all worked with those two different types at some time. People who cannot think outside of the box and then those who understand what we're trying to accomplish without needing everything spelled out to the letter.

[seanyred]

Sigh . Sounds like another CM training issue, or perhaps a case of inflexibility on the part of the CM's managers. There is a defined ratio of FP vs Standby guests for each attraction, and each CM is trained in working the merge position. But that doesn't (or shouldn't) mean that CMs must strictly apply that ratio. Ideally, CMs should be able to use a little common sense and adjust the ratio according to the situation at the time.

I have seen this lack of common sense often at TSM. I remember standing near the merge and no one was in the FP line. But those of us in Stand-by had to wait until the CM counted enough FP people. It was very frustrating. The walkway over the attraction was empty once we got let through. I sometimes wonder if some CMs don't understand the concept of a moving line is good for everyone. I'd rather have a hour wait moving often than a hour wait standing still most of the time. It is much easier to tolerate if you feel you are making progress.