WDW Weather Forecast - October 31-Nov 16, 2012

[Jared]

Unfortunately not. Can't afford it this time. I did everything to try to make it work, but just couldn't swing it. I would love to get to hang with you all at ICOT15.

Aw, disappointing! I thought you'd be there. Next time!

[Strmchsr]

Next time!

Absolutely! I'll look forward to it.

[Jared]

Is it a problem that this is the first thread I check every day?

[Fangorn]

Is it a problem that this is the first thread I check every day?

No. It's a sign of wisdom.

Steve

[Strmchsr]

Is it a problem that this is the first thread I check every day?

The 12z models don't post until around noon CDT so 12:30-12:45 is usually the earliest I can get a forecast up. Once we go back to standard time, that will get an hour bump since the models are on zulu time and not impacted by daylight savings. So, if you get on before noon CDT, check another thread and then come here.

[Dsnygirl]

Is it a problem that this is the first thread I check every day?

Not in my world, I do it, too!

[Dsnygirl]

Unfortunately not. Can't afford it this time. I did everything to try to make it work, but just couldn't swing it. I would love to get to hang with you all at ICOT15.

Darn.... ... was hoping we'd finally get to meet you!

[Jared]

Looks like we're still looking good for ICOT15!

Let me ask you something: How do "ZIP code" sites like Accuweather get their information compared to how you get yours? For instance, Accuweather is showing "rain" for next Saturday and Sunday. I have learned from experience to always trust you over them. But why is that?

[Strmchsr]

But why is that?

All of the "fill-in-your-zip-code" site base their forecasts on 1 set of computer generated algorithms. There is no human interaction whatsoever. 1 model prints out its statistics and that gets plugged in to the site. I, on the other hand (as well as any real meteorologist out there) use several models. Each model has its strengths and weaknesses. Models even go through "hot" and "cold" streaks like an athlete. Through a lot of experience you learn to recognize patterns, which models are performing the best at the moment, etc. You just don't get that with Accuweather, Weather.Com, etc. Of course, I'm wrong sometimes, too, and I try to learn from that and do better next time.

[MinnieMommie]

Chris: The single zip code sites have predicted several rain days for the last week of October when I will be visiting WDW with 8 family and friends. My daughter has been carefully following your forecast and said until Stormchaser predicts rain I will not get my feathers ruffled. Lo and Behold, today Accuweather predicts stellar weather for the last week of October with rain on Nov. 1. We will still be there on the first. Are you still predicting the rain will come in a bit after the first?

[Strmchsr]

We'll see what the afternoon models have to say, but right now I don't see a significant rain threat for WDW until after Nov 1. I can rarely rule out those little brief pop-up showers, but in terms of an actual rain event, nothing until after Nov 1.

[MinnieMommie]

We'll see what the afternoon models have to say, but right now I don't see a significant rain threat for WDW until after Nov 1. I can rarely rule out those little brief pop-up showers, but in terms of an actual rain event, nothing until after Nov 1.

Great - thanks...will look forward to seeing what the afternoon models have to say.

[minnie04]

looks good for the weekend I hope its cooler at night for the MNSSHP

[Disney Hungarian]

I'm driving to WDW on Friday. I hope the tropical stuff stays off shore. I had to drive through too many storms getting to WDW this year.

[Strmchsr]

I'm driving to WDW on Friday. I hope the tropical stuff stays off shore. I had to drive through too many storms getting to WDW this year.

I think you'll be fine. If it does come ashore I think it'll be further up the Atlantic coast. Though the possibility exists, I really don't think it'll impact Florida.

[mudpuppysmom]

We are coming down from PA on Thursday/Friday morning so I'm hoping we don't find anything significant.....sounds like once we get there the week will be nice!! Thanks for ordering up the nice weather until after we begin our journey back home!

[Dsnygirl]

Chris, can I ask a "personal" question re: TS Sandy? My MiL is on a cruise, settled in Bermuda, I believe she is cruising home Fri/Sat. Keep hearing the storm is making a direct track that way... what are your thoughts?? I know ships are very good at avoiding trouble, or staying in port... so not terribly worried, just curious. (Okay, maybe a teensy bit worried... )

And a "travelling home from ICOT 15" question... how bad do you think air flights are going to be up to NY on Monday?? My DH is supposed to fly out at 8:30am, through JFK to Syracuse... I'm a direct flight at 8pm.

so much, I really appreciate any input...

[MinnieMommie]

Another question (s) Chris: We are flying into MCO early Friday morning. What impact do you think this storm might have on our flight. Also, are you predicting rain on Friday and Saturday or rain Friday with winds and just strong winds on Saturday without rain? Thanks

[BriarRose0708]

Should I be worried my flight will be cancelled on Monday? I"m headed to Syracuse, NY. I've never had to deal with severe weather while traveling before and I hope it won't be that bad...

[Strmchsr]

Should I be worried my flight will be cancelled on Monday?

Unfortunately, yes. it looks like this system will be at full power and impacting the Atlantic coast on Monday. It will cause tremendous havoc with air travel. I would prepare for the possibility of cancellations. Honestly, if you could extend your vacation another day or two that would be a great idea. This still isn't 100%, but it's a good bet.

Another question (s) Chris: We are flying into MCO early Friday morning. What impact do you think this storm might have on our flight. Also, are you predicting rain on Friday and Saturday or rain Friday with winds and just strong winds on Saturday without rain? Thanks

I don't think you'll have a problem getting in tomorrow morning. The system, however, continues to shift a little more west and the circulation is huge so expect high winds, rain, and thunderstorms over WDW tomorrow afternoon through Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon should be just windy. Hopefully it'll stay more east and the impact won't be much but that doesn't look likely right now.

Chris, can I ask a "personal" question re: TS Sandy? My MiL is on a cruise, settled in Bermuda, I believe she is cruising home Fri/Sat. Keep hearing the storm is making a direct track that way... what are your thoughts??

And a "travelling home from ICOT 15" question... how bad do you think air flights are going to be up to NY on Monday?? My DH is supposed to fly out at 8:30am, through JFK to Syracuse... I'm a direct flight at 8pm.

Most all cruise lines are putting their hurricane plans into action right now. This is a VERY nasty storm so they'll get out of the way while they can. Your mom will be fine. They are very used to this, but it will alter her vacation. Bermuda will be on the "bad" side, so they'll want to get the ships out of the way and back to port ASAP.

As for you, as I said above, Monday will be a nightmare in the NE. The storm should hit on Monday and there really could be a lot of cancellations unless the GFS is right and it goes farther north. That's possible, but doesn't look likely. I would start considering alternative plans right now. Maybe stay an extra day or two.