WDW Weather Forecast - October 31-Nov 16, 2012

[BrerGnat]

I am also worried about this. I have a flight into Washington (Dulles) on Monday morning and I'm worried. I'm flying into MCO tomorrow and should be landing right around 11am.

At what wind speed do they typically "ground" flights?

I have to get home before my kids get home from school on Monday as DH has to go to work that day! My flight is scheduled to land at around 11:30 am...

[Strmchsr]

I am also worried about this. I have a flight into Washington (Dulles) on Monday morning and I'm worried. I'm flying into MCO tomorrow and should be landing right around 11am. At what wind speed do they typically "ground" flights?

It's not as much wind speed as speed and direction. But a 950mb low can produce hurricane strength winds which would definitely cause flight cancellations. For you tomorrow should be okay. Monday is much more iffy. If the Euro is correct I would expect your kids' school cancelled on Monday as the storm will be coming right for the Chesapeake Bay. But, if it goes a little further north then you won't have as much of an issue. It all depends on where the storm comes in. I wish I could be a lot more encouraging but I want y'all to be prepared in case this scenario does play out. It's still possible it won't.

[Disney Hungarian]

Since, I will be driving in to WDW tomorrow. I should be headed south on I-75 around 2-3pm. Any idea on how treacherous the driving conditions will be at that time?

[Mitzie]

We have tickets for MNSSHP tomorrow(Fri. Night) will they cancel this..if not will things still be running? ...I used to like the name Sandy...

[Strmchsr]

Since, I will be driving in to WDW tomorrow. I should be headed south on I-75 around 2-3pm. Any idea on how treacherous the driving conditions will be at that time?

I don't think it'll be too bad. The wind will be your biggest challenge. It could be fairly strong. I don't think the rain will be as difficult for driving. Just be safe!

We have tickets for MNSSHP tomorrow(Fri. Night) will they cancel this..if not will things still be running? ...I used to like the name Sandy...

Doubtful that it gets bad enough to cancel MNSSHP. It is a possibility the parade could be canceled and I would say a probability that they don't do HalloWishes due to high winds, even if the rain breaks. Not 100% certainty as Sandy could stay farther off shore, but it's definitely possible.

[Strmchsr]

Let me clarify something - I'm giving y'all worst case. Some of the models still keep Sandy further east, and Florida is on the western (good/dry) side so it's entirely possible that Orlando sees some windy conditions but not much rain. But I want you prepared for the rain and not caught by surprise if it does come.

As for travel impact next week, that looks like a certainty, unfortunately. It just depends on where the storm comes in. If it comes in over the Chesapeake Bay then everywhere from northern VA to Maine will get impacted. If it goes further north the impact will be less for the southern places. It may take another 24-36 hours before we're clear on the final destination.

[MinnieMommie]

Will be watching your forecast carefully. 3 of my kids will be flying home into different NE cities Monday night. Will plan for the possibility of flight cancellations. Wishing everyone safe travels.

[mrte62]

Last year we lost the first day of our WDW vacation because of the only snowstorm to hit NJ all year - in October.

Now to celebrate the this anniversary, we are scheduled for a 1 pm flight from Newark on Saturday.

Here's hoping that we get out and make it safely - on Saturday!!

[Strmchsr]

Here's hoping that we get out and make it safely - on Saturday!!

You shouldn't have any problems getting out tomorrow. In fact, you'll be MUCH happier spending the days in WDW while the storm rages back home.

[chefmickey3]

Hi,

You have been right from Day 1 so I trust you. What are our chances to get from MCO to PHL on a 11:20 flight Sunday morning? Have family preparing for us at home but we need to get there!

Thanks,
Beth

[Strmchsr]

Beth, Sandy should be far enough off shore that getting in Sunday morning will be okay. I don't anticipate any real travel issues until late Sunday night or Monday morning. Be safe going home!

[Janmac]

Chris, I was reading your description of the impacts of Sandy - perhaps I should say possible impacts. Still, it's best to be aware of worst case scenarios. Even a bit less can be life threatening or at least very uncomfortable.

Regarding your statement about some folks being without power, still, on election day - I concur.

We had an ice storm in 2007 which knocked down miles of poles carrying electrical wires. It takes a while to put a pole back up. Something like 3 or 4 poles a day is a huge effort.

There is a triage system where the fixes that put the most folks back on line get done first, with the fixes at the ends of the lines putting one house or a small few back on line happening last.

Here in mid-Missouri the folks in our area - maybe 4 or 5 square miles but probably not affecting more than a couple hundred people - were without power for 7 days. Some people - at the ends of lines - were without power two weeks later.

I can not stress enough how important it is to have water. A gallon per day per person is perhaps not as excessive as it sounds, if you have no power and won't get any.

ANY thing you think you will need in the next two weeks, you should have in your house now. Just in case.

If your house is all electric - you will need a way to warm up food.

Do NOT put any generator under any part of the roof of your house.

Folks that have special needs should have located shelters and be familiar with more than one way to get to them.

Electrical crews will try to get people with special needs back on line as soon as possible but with widespread high winds - they will be hard put for a while. Even with crews coming in from outside the area.

I heard that crews from Chicago were already on their way. We had crews from out of state working in our neighborhood. I suspect at least one crew from our electric co-op will travel east soon if they haven't left already. We had more than one crew in Mississippi after Katrina.

Here's hoping that Sandy doesn't impact as severely as you worry about, Chris. We watch the weather here and I respect your judgement and experience.

So . . . if you're concerned, I am too, and I hope that folks reading this thread will tell as many others as they can. Better to have been prepared - or bugged out - and not have needed to than the opposite.

Jan

[Strmchsr]

Thanks, Jan. Normally I try to quell the hype when the media blows things out of proportion, but I honestly don't believe this storm is hype. Let's hope for a miracle and it turns back out to sea, but at the moment I don't see anything that will lead to that.

And good thoughts from you, too! Thanks for sharing.

[Strmchsr]

Many of you have been wondering about storm surge. A meteorologist friend of mine wrote a great synposis regarding Sandy on his blog. Here it is:

When people think of hurricanes, it is probably the wind that comes to mind first. But while the wind is a big part of the impact of a hurricane, it is actually the storm surge that has the greatest potential to produce great devastation and loss of life IF people along the coast do not heed evacuation recommendations.

So what is the storm surge? Storm surge is created by three primary factors, the wind, the waves, and low pressure. These three elements contribute to the storm surge to create massive destruction.

The wind circulating around the hurricane acts to pile up water especially on the right side of the storm, right side determined by the direction in which the storm is moving. The wind typically accounts for 85 percent or more of the surge.

On top of the water, waves push water inland faster than it can drain back to sea. The wave set-up as it is called accounts for about 5 to 10 percent of the surge.

The low pressure of a hurricane contributes to raising the height of the water close to the eye. Like the wave set-up, this accounts for about 5 to 10 percent of the surge.

There are additional factors which contribute to increasing or decreasing storm surge. First, storm surge depends largely upon the size and intensity of a hurricane. Then there is the angle at which the hurricane approaches the shore. Further factors include the slope of the seabed along the coastline together with the depth of the water close to shore, whether the surge comes with low tide or high tide, and the speed at which the hurricane is moving.

A computer model has been developed which tries to take all of these factors into account to arrive at some idea of what the surge is likely to be with a particular storms. The model is called SLOSH and stands for Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes. The models show Sandy as a Cat 1 hurricane at landfall. Category 1 hurricanes inundate just about all of the immediate south shore of Long Island, including the north side of Great South Bay locations and both sides of the north and south forks.

Keep in mind that there will be wind affecting a large area and rain affecting a wide area with widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches over a couple of days. So this storm is NOT being hyped. Sandy poses a very serious threat to a very large area, and it is my hope that people from the Carolinas to Ohio to Maine and all of the states in between will take Sandy seriously.

[ckaranassos]

Thanks Chris for the updates. We are here at the Jersey Shore and are really worried about Sandy. We are prepared and as ready as we can be! I hope everyone in Sandy's path stays safe. God Bless!

[Strmchsr]

Once you're able again, please post and let us know how you are! Prayers and going up for all of you in the impact zone! I'm sure I'll be headed that way with the United Methodist disaster response team as soon as possible.

[Maleficent's Dad]

Once you're able again, please post and let us know how you are! Prayers and going up for all of you in the impact zone! I'm sure I'll be headed that way with the United Methodist disaster response team as soon as possible.

Hey, Chris. The wind picked up last night and now it's pretty breezy with some significant gusts coming through. Tonight will be the difficult time up where I am - as the storm comes ashore and the high tides hit...

Everyone *should* be prepared for this as there was plenty of advance notice as well as the media hype.

Schools & government offices are all closed (a rarity, especially in NYC proper). I read today that all Starbucks locations in NYC and the surrounding areas also decided to close. Interestingly, my brother's area manager wanted his reps out working today (he's in pharmaceuticals). I don't think that's happening!

[Strmchsr]

Thanks for the update, Frank. Sandy is getting stronger, so I'm praying for safety for all of you!

[BrerGnat]

Hey Chris! I was able to get out of MCO yesterday morning, but had to fly into Richmond, VA. My evening flight that was supposed to land at Dulles at 9pm was canceled. The drive up from Richmond was rough. It was VERY windy along 95 North.

Right now, we are experiencing moderate wind gusts and on/off heavy rain. Not too bad...yet. Supposed to get the worst of it tonight.

I heard it's as cold in Orlando today as it is here! That's crazy!

[Strmchsr]

I'm glad you made it home Natalie! Yeah, unfortunately, the worst is just starting as Sandy is strengthening and beginning the westward movement. I'm praying for all of you in that area!

Sandy is pulling a lot of cold air south so the high today will only be 63-64 in Orlando, and a little colder tomorrow.