WDW Weather Forecast - September 30-Oct 16, 2011

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss Sundays), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Updated Friday pm, September 30, 2011
The front slowed down slightly so the high hit 90 today, and might even climb to 91, but the front will arrive this afternoon with a slight chance of light showers. Tomorrow and Sunday will be noticeably cooler with a high 82-84 for tomorrow, and around 80 on Sunday. Monday will warm to 82-84, then 84-86 for Tuesday through Friday. Lows will be 62-64 for tomorrow and Sunday then 64-66 for Monday through Friday. No rain chance at all through Tuesday. Wednesday through Friday will see a slim chance of a pop up afternoon shower as humidity returns.

Long range...Oct 8-11 should be in the upper 80s with a slight chance of an afternoon shower. A cold front moves in on Oct 12 bringing a good chance of thunderstorms. Oct 13-16 looks dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Travel Impact
At 1:15 pm CDT, Newark is delayed due to wind, but everyone else is clear and I don't see any big issues for tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here and here to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

Tropics
Hurricane Ophelia is strengthening in the Atlantic today, and with 115 mph sustained winds, she is now the season’s third major (Category Three) hurricane. This will be no threat to the United States, but it could brush eastern Canada as it becomes extratropical early next week. Tropical Storm Philippe, on the other hand, it not expected to strengthen much over the next five days as he drifts westward. However, he keeps hanging around and might just survive the intense wind shear and that could make things interesting. This storm also appears to be no threat to the US, but early October may have some nearby activity. It’s too early to see any details, but the weather pattern turns very favorable for Caribbean or Gulf development over the next two weeks. That's what we'll really need to watch for in terms of something impacting WDW.

Click here to see WDW's 2011 Hurricane Policy.

[pianobabe]

Happy Weather Anniversary!!! Thanks for always keeping us updated.

[Disney Hungarian]

Thank you, and Happy anniversary!
Should I be concerned with the Gulf storm or will it primarily be a rain maker and not a home wrecker?

[Briansmom]

Thanks, Chris! I will be hanging on your every word from now until we leave on the 28th!

Thanks so much for doing these forecasts for us!

[Strmchsr]

Should I be concerned with the Gulf storm or will it primarily be a rain maker and not a home wrecker?

Wind won't be a big issue with this storm, BUT, rain amounts of 10-20 inches are possible along the coast from LA to the FL panhandle. So, if you live in a flood prone area, I would start making preparations for that. But if you're on the high ground this storm shouldn't be a big deal beyond being very wet.

[Disney Hungarian]

Thanks Chris!
so far it has just been rain with a few wind gusts.

[Strmchsr]

Thanks Chris!
so far it has just been rain with a few wind gusts.

I hope it all turns out okay for you. It doesn't look like it'll be too big of a deal other than the rain.

From your sig it looks like we have the same travel plans. I'm teaching at conferences (which allows me to take my family) at Disney in Sept, Dec, and May (as well as Oct and Jan). It's nice to be paid to go to WDW.

[Belster]

/Oh no! I hope there is not a hurricane...we leave on and want to be able to go. :0(

[mudpuppysmom]

I'm starting to keep a little eye on your forecasts.....we're close to voodooland forecasts ourselves!!

27 Sept - 5 Oct we'll be there!!

Here's hoping for a quiet tropics for the next few weeks!

[Disney Hungarian]

I hope it all turns out okay for you. It doesn't look like it'll be too big of a deal other than the rain.

From your sig it looks like we have the same travel plans. I'm teaching at conferences (which allows me to take my family) at Disney in Sept, Dec, and May (as well as Oct and Jan). It's nice to be paid to go to WDW.

Sounds like you have a great work/play life. How awesome is that!

Lee just moved past me about an hour ago. The worst part of the storm was the last hour of it. I had some damaging wind guts. Limited to tree and limb damage. A few small tornadoes in the area last night. Luckily, I have not heard of any injuries. All totaled ; I got about 13 inches of rain.

I hope you and everyone makes it through Lee's remnants unharmed.

[Strmchsr]

I hope you and everyone makes it through Lee's remnants unharmed.

We've all done well. Most of the heavy rain is north and west of us, though I expect we'll get some more this evening.

Those little spin-up tornadoes are the most difficult to forecast. They literally appear out of nowhere and radar can't see them. It's just something you have to watch out for in tropical situations. Glad you came out okay!

[PopPhan]

Thanks for the updates, Chris!

Right now, I'm liking your long range forecast in that we arrive on the 13th and leave on the 22nd....A little on the warm side, but it can't be much more humid than we are right now in PA!!

Getting the northern remnants of TS Lee today and continuing into the coming weekend...We are not prepared for long, drenching rains like FL is! This is NOT a sandbar!!

[cer]

Please, please no weather event for Sept. 22-28....

Heat and afternoon showers, I'm good.

Thank you so much for your reports.

[BigRedDad]

Tropics are picking up. Can't control it. I am not overly concerned because the odds of these storms hitting is relatively low.

[Strmchsr]

Tropics are picking up. Can't control it. I am not overly concerned because the odds of these storms hitting is relatively low.

Right now that is probably the case. The same pattern in place for Irene and Katia seems like it will still remain for TD 14 (soon to be Maria) and storms should continue to be deflected away from Florida. That can change, but I don't see any big pattern changes right now.

[DisneyorBust]

We will be arriving on the 21st and I agree with you Chris, there is nothing that we can do about it. I'm not worried about voodooland, it's time to go to WDW and have a great time!
By the way, thanks for keeping us updated on the weather happenings in the WDW area.

[gottaluvtink]

I am exactly ONE WEEK out...arriving on the 16th. I have been watching your updates and very grateful for what you do here on the board.

[mudpuppysmom]

I have started to keep a closer eye on the weather since we are getting closer to our trip.....any insight on the tropical waves off the coast of Africa -- weather channel people are saying this looks right now to be a pretty big storm forming.

[Strmchsr]

I have started to keep a closer eye on the weather since we are getting closer to our trip.....any insight on the tropical waves off the coast of Africa -- weather channel people are saying this looks right now to be a pretty big storm forming.

Right now there are no waves that the NHC has identified for potential development any time soon (even a low chance), so there's nothing to worry about. As I mentioned in the updated forecast I just posted - some of the models showed a major hurricane hitting Florida towards the end of the month, but that does not show up this morning. So, for right now nothing to be concerned about. We're definitely not through with tropical season, but I'll keep you posted as things develop. The WC guys have gone for more sensationalism than true meteorology ever since NBC bought them out and I don't have much respect for them anymore. There is definitely nothing in the next 7 days to worry about. Beyond that, impossible to say, but I'll let you know if anything pops up.

[mudpuppysmom]

Right now there are no waves that the NHC has identified for potential development any time soon (even a low chance), so there's nothing to worry about. As I mentioned in the updated forecast I just posted - some of the models showed a major hurricane hitting Florida towards the end of the month, but that does not show up this morning. So, for right now nothing to be concerned about. We're definitely not through with tropical season, but I'll keep you posted as things develop. The WC guys have gone for more sensationalism than true meteorology ever since NBC bought them out and I don't have much respect for them anymore. There is definitely nothing in the next 7 days to worry about. Beyond that, impossible to say, but I'll let you know if anything pops up.

I kinda get that about the WC guys too.....I'm not overly concerned, just cautious....plus we won't be there until 27 Sept anyway......a long time in weather speak!

Thanks for keeping us all updated on weather for our trip planning though!!