WDW Weather Forecast - September 29-Oct 15, 2010

[Minniefan68]

Well, rain is okay as long as it comes at night when we're sleeping.

[beckylovestink]

The models are beginning to show a big trough for Sept 26 which could drop the high to around 80.

I may be asking a dumb question...but what does this actually mean? (The big trough part)

THANKS!

[Strmchsr]

The models are beginning to show a big trough for Sept 26 which could drop the high to around 80.

I may be asking a dumb question...but what does this actually mean? (The big trough part)

THANKS!

Not a dumb question at all. Basically that means the atmosphere would allow cooler air to flow southward. If you look at a 2D map of the US and put a wave pattern on the map, if the crest of the waveform were over the Eastern US that would be a ridge, which means warmer/drier condition. When the trough of the wave is over the Eastern US then WDW can expect cooler (and possibly wetter if a front moves south) conditions. The extent of how cool/hot depends on the amplitude of the trough/crest. So, in this specific scenario, that means we may see some cooler temps (by cooler I mean highs in the low to mid 80s) coming to Florida by the end of the month. I still say may because I don't trust the models beyond 7 days and we may have a completely different look tomorrow.

Hope that make sense!

[beckylovestink]

Thanks so much for the explanation! I get it now. Love reading your updates, especially since in am in voodooland heading into the forecast!!!

[Belster]

Now this is way out...but I remember last year you were able to say based on weather trends what you thought pretty early. So do you think the last week of October is going to be super hot? Last year it seemed abnormally hot, we usually go at that time and it feels wonderful out.

[Cinderelley]

You've started reporting on the weather for our arrival day. Now it feels like our vacation is close.

[Emme&TeddysMommy]

Thanks for the update! Looks like were going to have a great week

[Strmchsr]

Now this is way out...but I remember last year you were able to say based on weather trends what you thought pretty early. So do you think the last week of October is going to be super hot? Last year it seemed abnormally hot, we usually go at that time and it feels wonderful out.

It's been dry this summer and fall, and adding other factors to that, unless a tropical system hits Florida between now and then I think it will probably average 3-4 degrees above normal, which would put highs in the mid to upper 80s. Not extremely hot, but warmer than normal. As you know, though, that's WAY out there and things could change, but that's my best guess for now given the patterns.

[EpcotFanatic]

So this voodoo hurricane around the 28-29 bringing a good bit of rain and wind... Just bring a poncho type day?

[Strmchsr]

So this voodoo hurricane around the 28-29 bringing a good bit of rain and wind... Just bring a poncho type day?

Well, if it were right, no it would be much more than that. However, nothing to worry about right now. That's just something showing up on a model run and until a storm actually forms, there's no need to give it much thought. Models are often wrong in the long term about these things.

[spoiledraf]

After worrying constantly while watching storm after storm develop far out in the Atlantic, it appears our visit next week will haave near perfect weather. Now if the crowds cooperate we'll be in business!!!

[EpcotFanatic]

When will you have a better idea about the supposed hurricane at the end of the month? I'm guessing the middle of next week?

[Strmchsr]

When will you have a better idea about the supposed hurricane at the end of the month? I'm guessing the middle of next week?

Probably so. Really as soon as an actual storm forms. Right now all we have are tropical waves and until a storm actually forms we're just looking at computer simulations. But, by the middle of next week if any of these waves are going to make it into the Gulf we should know.

[Cinderelley]

If the hurricane develops in the Gulf, will it affect our flight from Arizona to Orlando on the 29th? I'm not a big fan of flying.

[Strmchsr]

If the hurricane develops in the Gulf, will it affect our flight from Arizona to Orlando on the 29th? I'm not a big fan of flying.

Depends on where it goes and the timing. It's possible there could be flight delays, but not too likely. If/when this storm develops and we get closer to time, ask me again and I'll give you a flight forecast.

[beckylovestink]

anyone know a dance to keep the tropical voodoo in voodoo land?

six days away

Here's to a hurricane free week

FINGER ARE CROSSED, and kids are praying

[EpcotFanatic]

anyone know a dance to keep the tropical voodoo in voodoo land?

You have to dance like Carlton from Fresh Prince of Bel-Air.

The 25th and 1st are travel days for us. This gives us 5 days to enjoy the parks. Looks like we are making in and out by the skin on our teeth!

[beckylovestink]

ok! Epcotfanatic...but you better be doing it too because we are there the same exact dates...the more that do the Carlton the better.

[Strmchsr]

The 25th and 1st are travel days for us. This gives us 5 days to enjoy the parks. Looks like we are making in and out by the skin on our teeth!

ok! we are there the same exact dates

What's frustrating is that the models continue showing something different every single run. No consistency at all other than the storm formation, so I have no clue what's going to happen. After most of yesterday showing the storm moving towards Texas, this morning most of the models show the storm barely brushing the Florida Atlantic coast on Sept 29-30 then moving up the east cost to hit South Carolina. Ugh. We'll just have to see if/when this thing forms.

[EpcotFanatic]

That just made my morning! I'm taking this one day at a time right now.