Hot Stove League

[Hammer]

Anyone see the Granderson to the Yankees rumor? Looks like Johnny D is on his way out.

And a what a 3 team deal it will be if all sides can agree and the league approves it. Every one of the teams involved get something of value which should improve each team. I'm a big fan of Edwin Jackson.

Other news from the Winter Meetings-

1. Randy Wolf signs a 3 year deal with the Brewers
2. Ivan Rodriguez signs with the Nationals
3. Andy Pettite re-signs with Yankees for another 1 year deal
4. In non-player related news, Peter Gammons signs on as an analyst for MLB network.

[Scar]

Andy Pettite re-signs with Yankees for another 1 year deal

I like this. It makes it less likely the Yankees will make a big push for Lackey or Halladay. Halladay to the Redsox might also be dead.

[Ian]

I like this. It makes it less likely the Yankees will make a big push for Lackey or Halladay. Halladay to the Redsox might also be dead.

Rumors are the Yankees are still actively pursuing Halladay.

[barnaby]

I like this. It makes it less likely the Yankees will make a big push for Lackey or Halladay. Halladay to the Redsox might also be dead.

I think this might be a transition year for the Red Sox. Even if they did give up the farm for Halladay, they still lack a big bat in the middle of the order. And Bay and Holliday are good bats, but not enough to compete with the MFYs.

Pure speculation on my part, but I think the Sox will make a few small moves this off-season like signing Scutaro and maybe getting one bigger move like Bay or Holiday but will not make any huge deals like getting Halladay or trading Lowell. After next season, some guys will be FAs like Lowell and Ortiz will only have one year left so he could be moved too. Then the Red Sox will get rid of some $$ on the books and make some big moves for 2011.

[Ian]

Found this interesting (and somewhat surprising):

The Angels and Phillies were each making a hard push for the Toronto ace. The Angels, who have lost Chone Figgins to the Mariners and apparently are losing out on free agent ace John Lackey, have stepped forward with an offer of shortstop Erick Aybar, lefthander Joe Saunders, and their top outfield prospect, Peter Bourjos. It is unclear what the Phillies' offer would be, but they have three highly coveted prospects in righthander Kyle Drabek and outfielders Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor.

New York Daily News

[barnaby]

Since I was right on about the Sox not trading Lowell , lets see if I can be completely wrong again - I don't think Ortiz will be traded.

[Ian]

Tom Verducci claims the Phillies are working hard to land Halladay and that they're now even willing to part with Drabek if need be to land him.

In a fit of irony, in the same article he calls the Phillies "The Yankees of the National League"!

[Greenlawler]

Pirates make hot stove move!

Bobby Crosby signs deal.

Brewers sign Wolf and Hawkins. I don' think this improves us too much but it helps.

[Ian]

In what I can only describe as an odd twist, it now seems the Phils are going to land Halladay. However, they're giving up Lee to do it??

I don't see how this makes us better really ... I thought the goal was to have Lee and Halladay? At least for 2010 anyway!

[Hammer]

In what I can only describe as an odd twist, it now seems the Phils are going to land Halladay. However, they're giving up Lee to do it??

I don't see how this makes us better really ... I thought the goal was to have Lee and Halladay? At least for 2010 anyway!

Here is the reasoning I heard. Amaro has been trying to get Lee signed to an extension, but Lee is adamant to try free agency. Amaro isn't a fool; he knows that Lee is going to be more than likely too expensive next off season. Halladay lives in the Clearwater area and from Jayson Stark has said, was willing to give a "discount" (not really, but $20 million a year is less than $25 million) as he would not need to relocate (it seems he likes to live near to where the team he plays for trains). Amaro tried to mover Blanton to make salary room to have both Lee and Halladay this season, but no dice. So we at least end up with one ace rather than the real chance of nothing after this year.

Before you say "just spend more money", how can they make up the extra money they would need to spend without decreasing the profit margin? There isn't room to fit more people into the stadium, so the only way is to increase ticket and concession prices, which they did slightly this year. I don't want them to increase the prices so high that some of the current fan base is priced out. I like that those families who live around the stadium can still afford to go to a game or two a year. The same probably can't be said for those who live around Yankee Stadium.

[Ian]

Well yeah I mean I sort of understand the rationale for it now (although I don't agree with it necessarily) but there are other aspects I just don't get at all ... and I'm not the only one. Baseball people all over are scratching their heads at this one.

First off, rumors are they may have to move Drabek and Happ to get the deal done. If you're going to move Drabek and Happ now, why didn't you just do it during the season and land Halladay then?

Secondly, why not just let Lee play out the 2010 season and move on (and get draft pick compensation for him) and then just sign Halladay as a free agent? Why move all these players and prospects when you don't really have to?

I dunno ... I just don't see the logic behind this one. To me it really seems like Amaro has fallen in love with Halladay and he's become like his White Whale. I think he's giving up way too much to essentially save a couple million a year in salary.

One thing I will say, though, is that I do think Halladay is a better pitcher. He's got a much broader body of work to draw on.

[Ian]

Interesting take from Lee Jenkins ... a baseball guy with SI.com (who I've never heard of ) ...

The Phillies are starting to operate like the Yanks and Sox, substituting great players for elite ones. As much as Lee did for them in the post-season -- 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA -- his career numbers are not as consistent as Halladay's. Besides, it should be easier for the Phillies to negotiate a contract extension with Halladay than Lee, considering Halladay has never pitched for a contender and lives near the Phillies spring-training site in Clearwater, Fla. This was the rare move that made both baseball sense and financial sense. By trading one Cy Young Award winner for another, the Phillies still lack depth in their rotation, but they can go righty-lefty at the top, with Halladay and Cole Hamels.

I did forget the righty/lefty angle with Halladay. I think our lefty-dominated rotation hurt us in the playoffs last year, so being able to go righty/lefty at the top is a big plus.

[Hammer]

This supports what I had heard that Halladay is negotiating a contract with the Phillies as part of this deal, which is what is different from trading for him in the middle of the season. They were not able to get that in the middle of the season, so Amaro took a chance he could convince Cliff Lee to sign an extension at the end of last season (which did not happen) and try to trade for Halladay this offseason. As I said, I had heard Amaro did try to keep both Lee and Halladay by trying to move Blanton's and his salary, but no dice.

Also, everything I am hearing is that it will be Drabek or Haap (probably Drabek), not both.

[Hammer]

Oh, and to answer your question as to why not wait and sign Halladay as a free agent is simple. It would cost the Phillies more money to do that as they would have to get into a bidding war with the Yankees and Red Sox.

[Ian]

Also left out from what I originally heard is that the Phillies are apparently getting back some top prospects in the deal.

Honestly, I just need to see the whole final deal on paper before I can really decide what I think, but after digesting and getting some clarity it seems a lot better than it first appeared.

In truth, any deal that ends up with us having Halladay is a good deal. I do have to wonder, though ... if we trade Happ that means our starting rotating from last year has lost Lee, Martinez, Myers, and Happ and all we've added is Halladay. Seems like we're short on pitchers? Does this mean there's another move or two out there waiting to happen?

Who are our starters now? Obviously you've got Halladay, Hamels, and Blanton but after that? Happ if we don't trade him ... who's your fifth starter? Jamie? Man, I hope not. A team that's really serious about winning the World Series can't have Jamie Moyer in their starting rotation.

[Hammer]

I think the 5th starter job is going to be a battle in spring training and yes, Moyer is going to get a chance to compete for that role if he is healthy, and that is a big if. Moyer should get the chance to try and win the job.

[Ian]

I don't mind if, out of respect, they give him the opportunity to compete, but in all honesty I see very little chance that at age 48 he's going to rebound from last year and pitch well enough to earn that 5th starter spot.

That being said there are maybe a couple other guys on this team who could fill that spot ... maybe a Kendrick or a Durbin. Of course, then you ding your already depleted bullpen.

[Hammer]

Moyer is 47, not 48. No need to age him more.

Look a 5th starter is usually only good for about 10 wins on average, which while you do not want to admit it is what Moyer can give you. No, it is not always pretty, but it rarely is for a 5th starter. I am more concerned if he will be healthy enough to compete in spring training.

I see the Phillies inviting pitchers to spring training to compete for the 5th starter job, which is pretty common practice for a team to do. I see no problem with that.

[Ian]

Your confidence in Jamie is a lot greater than mine, but you are right ... I actually forgot his birthday is in November so he'll only be 47 for the entire 2010 season. I thought he was going to turn 48 before that.

I just right now see a team losing pitchers faster than we can replace them and that worries me since pitching was already an issue going into the off season.

I just read that they non-tendered Condrey, so our bullpen is even further depleted.

[mitchsfan]

I am in love with this trade. If I wast married, I would marry this trade.

Your starting rotation is Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, and Whocares. As a 5th starter, you can throw junk out there and expect to win if you are the Phillies. A 5th starter can still give up 6-7 runs when your lineup consist of Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth, a healthy Ibanez, Victorino, and Ruiz.

The Phillies will win about 60 percent of their 5th starts guaranteed this year. Their lineup is that good to carry them this year.

The bench is set with...Gload, Dobbs, Francisco, Schneider, Castro.

Your pen consist of Lidge, Romero, Madson, Escalano, and you have spots for three more. Moyer? Kendrick? Martinez? Eyre? Park?

Here is the name that interest me: John Smoltz. The Phillies have talked to his agent. There is your 5th starter (and maybe he puts some pressure on Lidge) Then move Moyer to the pen as your mop up guy. There is no need to cater to Moyer. If he doesn't like it he can retire.

Lee wasn't signing here without looking at the market. If you understand that part, then this is a no brainer. Ruben has done an incredible job so far.

Think about it this way: The Phils were 1 braindead play (covering 3rd on Damons steal) away from a game 7 of the World Series. You trade away a good pitcher and get the best pitcher in baseball. This trade was awesome.