WDW Weather Forecast - August 31-Sept 16, 2007

[disneyfan369]

I'll be sure to let you know when it's time to panic.

Thanks, Chris! We'll panic the second you tell us to. However, we will be a little bit concerned and watch this thread carefully.

[courtney2006]

Thank you so much for keeping us up to date. I don't think I've checked any posts as much as I've checked this one over the past few days. Keep up the great work!

[sgdisney]

Thanks for the updates, Chris. You're better than the Weather Channel.

[BronxTigger]

errrrrrrrrrrr still a bit nervous about this possible Hurricane Dean......

[Strmchsr]

Well, it finally developed. Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

…FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC…

AT 1100 AM EDT…1500Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH…LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520
MILES…840 KM…WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES…3220 KM…EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH…AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST…AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION…12.0 N…31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

[BronxTigger]

I don't think I'm going to come out ahead with this TD4 AKA "Dean". I could miss it at WDW only for it to attack NYC. Or, if it heads south, it could nail my FIL who is going to DR next week.

[Strmchsr]

I don't think I'm going to come out ahead with this TD4 AKA "Dean". I could miss it at WDW only for it to attack NYC. Or, if it heads south, it could nail my FIL who is going to DR next week.

Don't worry yet. The 00Z model run had this thing going into Mexico, so the fact that the 12Z run today of the GFS and GFDL turn it up the coast is just a sign of model madness. It'll drive you crazy if you follow it from run to run. Wait until later in the week and I'm sure I, the NHC, and the models will have a much better handle on what should be Hurricane Dean.

[Strmchsr]

Afternoon bulletin on TD4:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.1 WEST OR ABOUT 620
MILES...995 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1900 MILES...3060 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...11.9 N...33.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

[Bethanymouse]

Thanks for all of your hard work strmchsr! I really do appreciate the updates!

[disneygirl17]

I am glad this thread is here!!! well I will be at WDW from the 16th until the 23rd. Then we get on the Disney Wonder from the 23rd until the 26th....any predictions for the 3 night cruise (happy thought, happy thought)

[Strmchsr]

It's really, really hard to say right now. The models are all over the place and it'll probably be 2-3 more days before we get a good handle on the track of this thing. This morning's model run brought the hurricane into the Atlantic Coast of FL Aug 22-23 while the 12Z is bringing it into the Gulf. I'm just not certain at the moment about the affect on WDW itself. However, I'm feeling fairly certain that, barring a big slow down, it should be out of the way by the 23rd and your cruise weather should be fine.

[Strmchsr]

Here's the official word from the NHC on Dean:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
200 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DEAN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF
BELIZE...ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE
BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO CANCUN...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF PROGRESSO SOUTHWARD TO
CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO PROGRESSO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 330
MILES...530 KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND DEAN IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 924 MB...27.29 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 18
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

DEAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER JAMAICA WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 20 INCHES.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NICARAGUA. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

[disneygirl17]

Strmchsr - Thank you so much for giving me hope for a good cruise. We will be at WDW for 6days before the cruise and I hope this Dean gets his butt out to sea and away from all parts of my vacation.

[disneyfan369]

Thanks for the updates, Chris!! I'll be glued to this thread for the next few days.

[BronxTigger]

I just found out my friend is going to Puerto Rico on Sunday. Dean is determined to get me somehow!

Thanks Stormchaser for your detailed reports!

[disneygirl17]

BronxTigger I just realized you are staying ar the CBR. so am I. Small world.... I have been glued to this thread as well. I am hoping for a Dean free vacation.

[Maleficent's Dad]

Chris,
Thanks for the updates.

Sending you a PM.

[Lucyrella]

I have never liked the name Dean.... LOL, and now he is lurking over our plans..... I will take the advise of the storm guru and see what is going on in 2 days.... I hope it clears out, goes away, goes poof, fizzles out or something before we get there on the 26th... It can not rain on my parade!

[Strmchsr]

This will have no direct impact on WDW, but for those of you in Texas or traveling through Texas you need to know about Erin:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
400 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2007

...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN ALREADY AFFECTING THE TEXAS
COAST...

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TEXAS
COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM SAN LUIS PASS
SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT
195 MILES...315 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 210
MILES...335 KM...SOUTH OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL THURSDAY
MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. ANOTHER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING ERIN.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED IN ISOLATED COASTAL LOCATION TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

[Lucyrella]

Thanks Chris for all the info you give us. I was getting excited and almost doing a snoopy dance when I saw Dean was out of the picture until I read the rest of the post and that another one is in sight.... Hopefully it won't dampen our spirit or plans for the dates you mentioned... Again thanks for all the input you give. You Rock!