When do you think the Disney World theme parks will reopen?

[andypooh]

1) May or June
2) July or August
3) September, October, November, December
4) Not until at least 2021

[Simba's Mom]

It seems that people keep pushing back the possible reopening. It did seem that June 1st was the overwhelming favorite, but now there are more votes for September, October, or November. I know I have reservations in September, but I'm thinking it's quite likely I'll cancel (even if WDW reopens, I doubt I'll feel comfortable going). Fortunately I already have reservations in January, just in case (the odds on that are increasing daily).

[TheVBs]

I'm guessing August, but that's probably way too optimistic.

[Zippy 1]

My DD is scheduled to start an internship at Disney the end of August. As of right now that is still confirmed as her start date.

[magicofdisney]

This is tough to call. I keep hearing that the new normal for society will require an acceptance of social changes (like no handshaking or hugging). I've even heard it say that a return to social activity may first require a vaccine for COVID. I'm simply relaying things I've read or heard about. I'm neither advocating or endorsing any of these ideas or thoughts. Right now, I'm glad I'm not the one who has to make these tough decision because it seems "you're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't".

[dnickels]

I mean it's a complete guess of course, but I just don't see how massive gathering locations like Disney or pro / college sporting events can return until there's a vaccine and even if they rush that I think that'll be September-December timeframe from among the options.

[Park Hopper]

So, this is purely speculative with no inside information or sources, not even something I heard from a friend who heard from a friend of a Disney World Buss Driver. I have been thinking about how/when Disney Parks might reopen. I try to be optimistic about Disney World getting back to normal. However, I think it may be some time before that happens. Truly, until there is a vaccine, I think large gatherings may still be restricted. If it looks like the restrictions will last several more months, I see Disney being clever in figuring out ways to make money and operate the parks without waiting that long to completely reopen.

I am not saying this will happen, but if restrictions continue, I can imagine Disney doing something temporary in which selected small groups of people will more or less be escorted through a park, as if a tour in a very controlled fashion. Only a skeleton crew (maybe travelling with the group?) would be required to operate the selected rides and wipe everything down - similar to how many restaurants are operating today with a 10 person minimum or something like that. Multiple groups could be rotated. This would obviously be pricey for those going (to cover the costs involved), but I am always astonished at how much people will pay. Similarly, a certain amount of hotel rooms could be opened. The rooms and transportation could be controlled. Again, I could see this going until they had the green-light to operate as before the pandemic.

I am fairly certain that I would not be able to justifiably afford this, but what do you all think? I have to believe Disney is currently coming up with some kind of plan to move forward under the current environment if they cannot completely bring everything back to normal for several more months.

Again, this is just something I could see happening - I do not have any real knowledge of how realistic this scenario is.

[TheVBs]

I think that's a very interesting idea Park Hopper! I hadn't thought of that possibility, but when I read your post I could see it happening. Small groups, maybe some really specialized offerings, and like you said probably big price tags.

[VacationDisney]

I hope it will be the fall, however, I wouldn't be surprised if it's really 2021

[TikiLounger]

I chose July or August simply because I'm trying to be optimistic. We have a vacation booked for November and I'm not ready to give up my high hopes.

[Cinderelley]

Part of Shanghai has reopened. :)

[FenwayGirl]

We are November also (after rescheduling both April and June) Fingers crossed.

[PopPhan]

I had initially said the September timeframe, but that is for FULL opening.

With the way things are shaping up, I expect that Disney will try to do a "phased" opening somewhere in the July 4th window. Possibly FL residents and 'local' AP members. Not everything in every park open at that time. I would expect most 'dark rides' will still be closed at this time.

Slowly, after that, open up more attractions - primarily the 'dark rides' - will open slowly. Maybe a couple per week.

Once all rides and attractions are open, they will open up visitation to US residents. Even at this point, entrance will be limited and queues will be monitored for 'social distance' and attractions will have lower 'throughput.'

IF, at that point, there are no major outbreaks, full operation may commence.

I do expect that things like the Food and Wine Festival will be cancelled for this year and the 'parties' - MNSSHP and MVMCP - will have VERY limited entry if they are held at all.

By January 2021, full operation should be the case...UNLESS there is a resurgence during the Fall/Winter "flu" season.

Throughout this period, and possibly for a lot longer, character Meet & Greets will not be available anywhere in the parks.


Just as an aside...I do know of at least one person that is on a CP 'internship' in food service management (?) that is scheduled to begin the program in August. (My brother-in-law's granddaughter. So this is not just hearsay.)

[nicholsbears]

:wave::wave:
I have reservations for Dec. which will probably be cancelled :( I don't think anyone will feel comfortable going to a crowded park until there is a vaccine, and that won't be until sometime in 2021 (at the earliest).

[Altair]

It may open sometime this year, but it won't be worth going to until next year.

[1DisneyNut]

Sometime in May possibly June 1st. We can't expect businesses to stay closed forever and lose revenue. Everything will start going bankrupt. The Corona Virus may mutate again and we will have Covid 20 next year. It may be just as bad or not very contagious. Then again we may see another round of Covid 19 still in circulation. We really have no idea what to expect. All I do no for certain is we can't keep shutting businesses down and stopping the economy or it will spiral out of control. The virus will run it's course through the population because it is so contagious. All we are doing right now is slowing the spread down.

[PopPhan]

Sometime in May possibly June 1st. We can't expect businesses to stay closed forever and lose revenue. Everything will start going bankrupt. The Corona Virus may mutate again and we will have Covid 20 next year. It may be just as bad or not very contagious. Then again we may see another round of Covid 19 still in circulation. We really have no idea what to expect. All I do no for certain is we can't keep shutting businesses down and stopping the economy or it will spiral out of control. The virus will run it's course through the population because it is so contagious. All we are doing right now is slowing the spread down.

And that is EXACTLY why things are shut down right now. Slow the spread, take the heat off of medical facilities until a viable treatment plan can be devised. It will be more than a year until there is a vaccine, so treatment is the only, best option. Open up too soon and the cases and hospitalizations will spike and we will have to go through this all over again.

[baldburke]

We are schedule for late October so here's hoping they are open by then!

I believe Disney gets close to one third of its revenue from global parks. That's pre-Disney+. And about 20% of its profits from global parks. The 2020 movie industry is a wreck so while Disney has a number of canned projects, they won't really see any real return on it until at least 2021. Sure, they have the bright spot of Disney+, but they're no Comcast.

Regardless of your political stance, Disney, like any other business, needs to get their stuff together quick or this will be a long, drawn out recovery process. Either way, the result will likely be higher costs to the consumer. A Disney vacation for the average family may become a luxury or a thing of the past.

[goofyskier]

We are schedule for late October so here's hoping they are open by then!

I believe Disney gets close to one third of its revenue from global parks. That's pre-Disney+. And about 20% of its profits from global parks. The 2020 movie industry is a wreck so while Disney has a number of canned projects, they won't really see any real return on it until at least 2021. Sure, they have the bright spot of Disney+, but they're no Comcast.

Regardless of your political stance, Disney, like any other business, needs to get their stuff together quick or this will be a long, drawn out recovery process. Either way, the result will likely be higher costs to the consumer. A Disney vacation for the average family may become a luxury or a thing of the past.

Ummmm not to sound overly sarcastic but wasn’t it already a luxury prior to this? I mean twice yearly price increases have been the standard for a while now to the point that the middle class was being priced out.

[nicholsbears]

Absolutely correct. We must slow the spread to keep our healthcare facilities and professionals from being further overwhelmed. Some states have not been severely affected...yet, so people in those states are really not in touch with the enormity of it. We must have patience, no matter how difficult it seems. No one likes the current situation, but we must be smart. Social distancing is the only weapon we have right now. :mjump::goofy:

[joonyer]

I know I won't be going to Disney, or any other place with crowds, until I can get vaccinated. It's going to be a long year.

[baldburke]

I know I won't be going to Disney, or any other place with crowds, until I can get vaccinated. It's going to be a long year.

Didn't your governor basically just re-open Georgia?

[joonyer]

He's trying, but many of the businesses he is allowing to "re-open" are announcing they they will not re-open, in spite of the relaxing of the stay-at-home order, not yet anyway. Most people are still too wary to co-mingle in public yet.

[MNNHFLTX]

With the way things are shaping up, I expect that Disney will try to do a "phased" opening somewhere in the July 4th window. Possibly FL residents and 'local' AP members. Not everything in every park open at that time. I would expect most 'dark rides' will still be closed at this time.

Slowly, after that, open up more attractions - primarily the 'dark rides' - will open slowly. Maybe a couple per week.

Once all rides and attractions are open, they will open up visitation to US residents. Even at this point, entrance will be limited and queues will be monitored for 'social distance' and attractions will have lower 'throughput.'

IF, at that point, there are no major outbreaks, full operation may commence.

By January 2021, full operation should be the case...UNLESS there is a resurgence during the Fall/Winter "flu" season.
I had a few thoughts reading your post. First, personally I doubt that Disney will open initially to locals/AP holders only, even if still dealing with restrictions. That market brings them only a fraction of their revenue compared with U.S. (non AP holders) and international guests, especially if you factor in hotel reservations.

Secondly, even if the spread of the virus slows during the summer months, it is pretty much a given that there will be a resurgence in the fall and winters months going into next year. This could be a stop-and-go process for a year or more.

I want to be optimistic, but I was telling my husband the other day that I have a hard time wrapping my head around how the Disney parks are going to handle this in the long run. The next year to year-and-a-half will likely still see social distancing to be the norm. Disney would have to limit admissions and eliminate crowding; this is not something that they have had to do in the past and, quite honestly, their model of operation has become quite the opposite.

[joonyer]

And, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, while not officially moving to -re-open businesses in Florida yet, is making moves in that direction. On Monday he unveiled his Re-Open Florida Task Force, a 22-person panel that has until Friday to come up with recommendations for cracking open the state’s economy. Interestingly, the task force includes includes representatives from including Disney and Universal, in addtion to several politicians and industry leaders.

[MNNHFLTX]

Sometime in May possibly June 1st. We can't expect businesses to stay closed forever and lose revenue. Everything will start going bankrupt. The Corona Virus may mutate again and we will have Covid 20 next year. It may be just as bad or not very contagious. Then again we may see another round of Covid 19 still in circulation. We really have no idea what to expect. Corona viruses are slow to mutate, compared with flu viruses. If they develop some effective vaccines for COVID-19, chances are good they will have a lasting effect for many years to come.

[Altair]

If they open before given the all-clear, you'll be signing a waiver to enter the parks. I would bet.

[texas211]

According to this, it is a wrap.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8248743/Disneys-theme-parks-unlikely-open-gates-2021-according-analysts.html?ito=social-facebook&fbclid=IwAR2Jk6VX2FkJdGtEA6VnTfg2H5HX6B_-77B3sv_pYt67l35jVYX87FZRVyc

[Giggy]

I think it will depend on how things go. I suspect Covid will carry on in the background for some time until a workable vaccine is developed. Disney will want to open as soon as it is safe to do so but they will also want to balance it against risk to guests and cast members, both from the fact people are dying but also from a business point of view it would be a PR disaster of a large number of Disney visitors became infected from opening early.

I had provisionally guessed for June and it may be a phased reopening, maybe starting with Downtown Disney, then Magic Kingdom at a significantly reduced capacity whilst new measures are tested out. Wouldn’t be surprised if Animal Kingdom was next because it is less densely populated with guests and Epcot and DHS are given a bit longer.

[Giggy]

According to this, it is a wrap.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8248743/Disneys-theme-parks-unlikely-open-gates-2021-according-analysts.html?ito=social-facebook&fbclid=IwAR2Jk6VX2FkJdGtEA6VnTfg2H5HX6B_-77B3sv_pYt67l35jVYX87FZRVyc

I would be careful paying too much attention to the Daily Mail, as UK newspapers go it is one of the least reliable. They tend to paint rumours/opinions as facts or sensationalise news to the extreme for the sake of sales.

[MNNHFLTX]

According to this, it is a wrap.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8248743/Disneys-theme-parks-unlikely-open-gates-2021-according-analysts.html?ito=social-facebook&fbclid=IwAR2Jk6VX2FkJdGtEA6VnTfg2H5HX6B_-77B3sv_pYt67l35jVYX87FZRVyc
Yeah, but that's from the Daily Mail. It's like getting your news from the National Enquirer here in the U.S.

[lindique]

Social distancing and Disney can't be found in the same sentence! I don't see how they could possibly do it. How could they keep people 6 feet apart, wipe down rides in between guests, properly sanitize the hotel rooms, etc. What about buses and monorails that are always stuffed to the max.

No one is going to feel comfortable wearing a mask most months of the year due to heat and humidity. Most little kids and babies won't keep them on at all. Temperature taking won't help much - I just read today that only about 1/3 of COVID patients actually run a fever. And what would they do with guests who get sick while they are there? They won't be able to travel for at least 3-4 weeks and most won't be admitted to hospitals.

I want to go back more than most people - I was supposed to go first week in May. But I don't understand how it could be done safely.

[texas211]

Yeah, but that's from the Daily Mail. It's like getting your news from the National Enquirer here in the U.S.

Though that sounds as reliable as any news we have in the US :)

However, who knows. Might open w/ crazy restrictions, as I see some floating out there, not that I would go. I'm not going to wdw w/ a mask on.. whew. nope.

[baldburke]

I can't speak to the rest of the country, but last weekend was near perfect spring weather for the northeast and it was crazy! I'll let you decide if it was crazy good or crazy bad, but there were so many people outside just trying to get out of house arrest and get some fresh air. I think governments are going to have a real challenge as we progress into warmer weather if they choose to try and continue to control the general public.

[joonyer]

I can't speak to the rest of the country, but last weekend was near perfect spring weather for the northeast and it was crazy! I'll let you decide if it was crazy good or crazy bad, but there were so many people outside just trying to get out of house arrest and get some fresh air. I think governments are going to have a real challenge as we progress into warmer weather if they choose to try and continue to control the general public.

Yeah, in my town (down south) there are lots of people out working in their yards, walking, riding bikes, etc. but at least they are keeping distant from each other. I just can't imagine people being able to stay even 3 feet apart (much less 6 feet) at a place like WDW. The attractions just aren't built for it. Even if they could, I won't be going anyplace with crowds until there is an effective vaccine. I am in the high risk group and so is my wife, who has a seriously compromised immune system.

[baldburke]

Yeah, in my town (down south) there are lots of people out working in their yards, walking, riding bikes, etc. but at least they are keeping distant from each other. I just can't imagine people being able to stay even 3 feet apart (much less 6 feet) at a place like WDW. The attractions just aren't built for it. Even if they could, I won't be going anyplace with crowds until there is an effective vaccine. I am in the high risk group and so is my wife, who has a seriously compromised immune system.

Best to take care then! High risk folks should definitely take more precautions. Stay safe!

[texas211]

I wonder if this will cut down on ECV traffic/rentals and stroller traffic and rules?

[Zippy 1]

I highly doubt they are going to relax existing rules when the parks reopen. If anything there are going to be many more rules that will be enforced strictly

[baldburke]

I highly doubt they are going to relax existing rules when the parks reopen. If anything there are going to be many more rules that will be enforced strictly

You are likely right! Probably so many rules that it will make people question if it is worth dropping a sizable amount of cash only to have limited fun.

[TheVBs]

We had a late August trip planned. We still only have the deposit down. We have no idea if WDW will be open in time, but have had conversations about whether we would want to go if they are. Some things we've thought about...

If they limit attendance, will our reservation be honored? They would have to cancel some reservations if they want limited capacity.

Will we want to be in Florida, in August, wearing masks? That would be challenging. Inside, no problem. Outside, difficult to imagine.

What will the social distancing do for wait times and ride capacity? If attendance is limited, hopefully that would reduce the impact on wait times or at least even it out with the distancing?

They would have to drastically reduce the number of sit down reservations. You can't eat and wear a mask, so they would have to make sure everyone is far enough apart and leave turnaround time for cleaning, and to make sure guests don't overlap.

We talked about all of this over dinner with the girls and explained that all of this could seriously impact our experience. We also talked about whether it would be taking an unnecessary risk to go. And then there's the question of value. Will the reduced experience come with reduced cost? We can't imagine paying the usual cost for a trip like that and having the experience greatly reduced. But, are they likely to offer those going a significant discount? Questionable.

So, we'll likely pass on a trip this year.

[TheVBs]

We were also talking about the logistics of certain rides and queues. You wouldn't want everyone touching the interactive portions of queues, so that option would likely be gone. The rides that have pre-shows that they usually cram a bunch of people into would have to have those portions bypassed. Like the portrait room before the Haunted Mansion ride. So, again, seriously impacted experience.

[baldburke]

We were also talking about the logistics of certain rides and queues. You wouldn't want everyone touching the interactive portions of queues, so that option would likely be gone. The rides that have pre-shows that they usually cram a bunch of people into would have to have those portions bypassed. Like the portrait room before the Haunted Mansion ride. So, again, seriously impacted experience.

Just think of all the people (and kids) that hang and lean on the rails as you clean. Good luck keeping those germ free.

However, just like sending your kids to daycare and they were "always sick" those first couple years but then hardly ever miss a beat in the later years. We need herd immunity!

[texas211]

Just think of all the people (and kids) that hang and lean on the rails as you clean. Good luck keeping those germ free.

However, just like sending your kids to daycare and they were "always sick" those first couple years but then hardly ever miss a beat in the later years. We need herd immunity!

It comes down to it, these forms of entertainment really don't work with this clorox the world mentality. life has risk. Either go out and take the risk and rewards, or wear a bubble.

[TheVBs]

Pesky science facts:

"Herd immunity is an epidemiological concept that describes the state where a population – usually of people – is sufficiently immune to a disease that the infection will not spread within that group. In other words, enough people can't get the disease – either through vaccination or natural immunity – that the people who are vulnerable are protected.

For example, let's think about mumps. Mumps is a very infectious disease that, while relatively benign, is very uncomfortable and sometimes causes nasty life-long complications. It's also vaccine-preventable, with a highly effective vaccine that has made the disease incredibly rare in the modern age.

Mumps has a basic reproductive rate (R0) of 10-12, which means that in a population which is entirely susceptible – meaning no one is immune to the virus – every person who is infected will pass the disease on to 10-12 people.

This means that without vaccination roughly 95 percent of the population gets infected over time. But even with something that is this infectious, there are still some people – 5 percent of the population – who don't get sick, because once everyone else is immune there's no one to catch the disease from.

We can increase that number by vaccinating, because vaccination makes people immune to infection, but it also stops infected people passing on the disease to everyone that they otherwise would. If we can get enough people immune to the disease, then it will stop spreading in the population.

And that's herd immunity, in a nutshell.

For mumps, you need 92 percent of the population to be immune for the disease to stop spreading entirely. This is what's known as the herd immunity threshold. COVID-19 is, fortunately, much less infectious than mumps, with an estimated R0 of roughly 3.

With this number, the proportion of people who need to be infected is lower but still high, sitting at around 70 percent of the entire population.

Which brings us to why herd immunity could never be considered a preventative measure.

If 70 percent of your population is infected with a disease, it is by definition not prevention. How can it be? Most of the people in your country are sick! And the hopeful nonsense that you can reach that 70 percent by just infecting young people is simply absurd. If only young people are immune, you'd have clusters of older people with no immunity at all, making it incredibly risky for anyone over a certain age to leave their house lest they get infected, forever.

It's also worth thinking about the repercussions of this disastrous scenario – the best estimates put COVID-19 infection fatality rate at around 0.5-1 percent. If 70 percent of an entire population gets sick, that means that between 0.35-0.7 percent of everyone in a country could die, which is a catastrophic outcome.

With something like 10 percent of all infections needing to be hospitalised, you'd also see an enormous number of people very sick, which has huge implications for the country as well.

The sad fact is that herd immunity just isn't a solution to our pandemic woes. Yes, it may eventually happen anyway, but hoping that it will save us all is just not realistic. The time to discuss herd immunity is when we have a vaccine developed, and not one second earlier, because at that point we will be able to really stop the epidemic in its tracks.

Until we have a vaccine, anyone talking about herd immunity as a preventative strategy for COVID-19 is simply wrong. Fortunately, there are other ways of preventing infections from spreading, which all boil down to avoiding people who are sick.

So stay home, stay safe, and practice physical distancing as much as possible."

It's frustrating, and scary, but reality. https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

[Cinderelley]

Pesky science facts:

"Herd immunity is an epidemiological concept that describes the state where a population – usually of people – is sufficiently immune to a disease that the infection will not spread within that group. In other words, enough people can't get the disease – either through vaccination or natural immunity – that the people who are vulnerable are protected.

For example, let's think about mumps. Mumps is a very infectious disease that, while relatively benign, is very uncomfortable and sometimes causes nasty life-long complications. It's also vaccine-preventable, with a highly effective vaccine that has made the disease incredibly rare in the modern age.

Mumps has a basic reproductive rate (R0) of 10-12, which means that in a population which is entirely susceptible – meaning no one is immune to the virus – every person who is infected will pass the disease on to 10-12 people.

This means that without vaccination roughly 95 percent of the population gets infected over time. But even with something that is this infectious, there are still some people – 5 percent of the population – who don't get sick, because once everyone else is immune there's no one to catch the disease from.

We can increase that number by vaccinating, because vaccination makes people immune to infection, but it also stops infected people passing on the disease to everyone that they otherwise would. If we can get enough people immune to the disease, then it will stop spreading in the population.

And that's herd immunity, in a nutshell.

For mumps, you need 92 percent of the population to be immune for the disease to stop spreading entirely. This is what's known as the herd immunity threshold. COVID-19 is, fortunately, much less infectious than mumps, with an estimated R0 of roughly 3.

With this number, the proportion of people who need to be infected is lower but still high, sitting at around 70 percent of the entire population.

Which brings us to why herd immunity could never be considered a preventative measure.

If 70 percent of your population is infected with a disease, it is by definition not prevention. How can it be? Most of the people in your country are sick! And the hopeful nonsense that you can reach that 70 percent by just infecting young people is simply absurd. If only young people are immune, you'd have clusters of older people with no immunity at all, making it incredibly risky for anyone over a certain age to leave their house lest they get infected, forever.

It's also worth thinking about the repercussions of this disastrous scenario – the best estimates put COVID-19 infection fatality rate at around 0.5-1 percent. If 70 percent of an entire population gets sick, that means that between 0.35-0.7 percent of everyone in a country could die, which is a catastrophic outcome.

With something like 10 percent of all infections needing to be hospitalised, you'd also see an enormous number of people very sick, which has huge implications for the country as well.

The sad fact is that herd immunity just isn't a solution to our pandemic woes. Yes, it may eventually happen anyway, but hoping that it will save us all is just not realistic. The time to discuss herd immunity is when we have a vaccine developed, and not one second earlier, because at that point we will be able to really stop the epidemic in its tracks.

Until we have a vaccine, anyone talking about herd immunity as a preventative strategy for COVID-19 is simply wrong. Fortunately, there are other ways of preventing infections from spreading, which all boil down to avoiding people who are sick.

So stay home, stay safe, and practice physical distancing as much as possible."

It's frustrating, and scary, but reality. https://www.sciencealert.com/why-herd-immunity-will-not-save-us-from-the-covid-19-pandemic

Except that there are areas who have already reached herd immunity. Check out Sweden.

[goofyskier]

Except that there are areas who have already reached herd immunity. Check out Sweden.

Except they haven’t reached it. By the way the death rate in Sweden is also one of the highest in the world due to the way they have attempted to combat the disease. The deaths have primarily occurred in older individuals so I guess if we are okay killing off our elders we could go that route. I kinda love my parents and grandparents though so I’ll take a pass, wear a mask....and hope for a vaccine.

[texas211]

For this modified experience, I don't see why you would want to go. Now in a few months, as things further lax, maybe.

Now as far as let the old people die. Less than half a million have so far,, on a planet with just under 8 billion...

[Giggy]

I had provisionally guessed for June and it may be a phased reopening, maybe starting with Downtown Disney, then Magic Kingdom at a significantly reduced capacity whilst new measures are tested out. Wouldn’t be surprised if Animal Kingdom was next because it is less densely populated with guests and Epcot and DHS are given a bit longer.

My prediction wasn't that far away!