DVC Resale Soaring Prices

[TiggeRia]

We bought into DVC using a resale contract (160 points at AKL) in June. Also purchased a small contract at the Polynesian direct through Disney. We’ve decided that we want to add on about 100 points and figured it makes the most sense to add on to AKL, however I’m shocked at how much the price of resale has sky rocketed over the past few months. AKL (and all resorts it seems) has jumped $25+ per point since we bought in June and even more with a smaller contract. Has this happened before?? Wondering if I should just sit on it for awhile and see if the price levels back out. Any ideas??

[John]

Not sure if it has anything to do with Disney buying back points by ROFR, but could be. That's a pretty good jump....

[Cinderelley]

Maybe it is due to Pandora and the upcoming Star Wars stuff.

[VWL Mom]

Many of the overinflated listings seem to be coming from one broker, lately the trend appears to be listing stripped contracts at high prices, IMO they're not looking out for their seller but instead their commission. Remember, they can ask whatever they wish but what they get may be a different story.

When one sees small stripped resale contracts going for near direct prices you just have to wonder, definitely has become buyer beware.

If I was still in the market for points I would probably wait and see. Prices seem to go down end of December beginning of January after holiday trips are over and MF's are due.

[ThanxForNoticin]

I was just looking at what I would consider the top 2 brokers for sales like this, and they are both significantly higher now than they were 6-18 months ago. It's pretty amazing looking at the prices now. I'm no expert, but I have to think it's simple supply and demand. With points directly from Disney getting way up there in price, it's not surprising the secondary market would jump, too, as more people look to get their own points cheaper. And maybe they will go down again in a few months - but if you look through the listings, not only are the prices much higher, but the contracts seem to be getting sold - way more "sale pending" indications than "available". That doesn't sound like reductions are imminent. Even Saratoga and Old Key West contracts are getting over $100 per point now - never saw that previously.

Interesting.

[Ian]

I'm no expert, but I have to think it's simple supply and demand. With points directly from Disney getting way up there in price, it's not surprising the secondary market would jump, too, as more people look to get their own points cheaper.I agree with this. When I've looked at prices in the past, I was really shocked at the massive discrepancy between what resale points sold for vs. what Disney was asking for them direct. I figured the market would ultimately have to correct one way or the other since it was crazy that Disney was asking sometimes $100 more pp than what resale was asking. And given that we all know Disney never lowers their prices, it figures resale would have gone up.

[Septbride2002]

Not sure what sites you are going to - but put in an offer. One time when we were looking to purchase The asking price was $110.00, we offered them $95.00 per point and the seller accepted that offer. In the end we didn't end up purchasing the points due to an unrelated issue - but if you see what you want - don't be afraid to offer a lower price per point.

[ThanxForNoticin]

Not sure what sites you are going to - but put in an offer. One time when we were looking to purchase The asking price was $110.00, we offered them $95.00 per point and the seller accepted that offer. In the end we didn't end up purchasing the points due to an unrelated issue - but if you see what you want - don't be afraid to offer a lower price per point.

You are absolutely correct. Making a reasonable offer is the way to go. But don't forget, it's one thing for the seller to accept. Then it also has to pass by Disney and their ROFR. If the offer is too low, Disney might grab it from you. That's where the experience of a good resale agent can be important.

[MarkC]

Its based on a couple of things. 1-- the economy and stock market are soaring, so more people have money to spend. 2-- good old supply and demand. With more people having money, more people are buying but there is no increase in inventory, especially of resale property. So that will always cause the price to go up.

[WiltonJohn]

Its based on a couple of things. 1-- the economy and stock market are soaring, so more people have money to spend. 2-- good old supply and demand. With more people having money, more people are buying but there is no increase in inventory, especially of resale property. So that will always cause the price to go up.

Meaning "good investment" ........ until the market crashes and people want to unload the timeshares. But for now.......... the appreciation in value if you beat the climb looks nice.

best,

................john

[MarkC]

Wilton John, you make a good point. We bought our DVC about 12 years ago as the markets and economy started to crash. We paid $93 a point at Beach Club for 100 points. Good luck paying anything close to that now. What's funny is to read all the stock experts and their picks for what will happen. Some have been predicting a stock market collapse every week for the past year, and some guy today said the bull market will last another 8-10 years. And these guys are "experts". Sure.

[WiltonJohn]

What's funny is to read all the stock experts and their picks for what will happen. Some have been predicting a stock market collapse every week for the past year, and some guy today said the bull market will last another 8-10 years. And these guys are "experts". Sure.

The ONE absolute truism in the stock market is that it will EVENTUALLY go down "big time". When that will be is anybody's guess. If it was possible to "time" the market.... a LOT of people would be very rich (more than those who currently are).

And history also says that it likely will eventually go back up. Again, when that will be is anybody's guess.

A year ago, everyone was talking about Disney stock possibly splitting at the coming $120 a share level that was a 'sure thing' according to the experts. The valuation graph just kept going up and up and up. Then bang.......... it all changed in a heartbeat, and now it stagnates at around $100 a share for about a year. Buying opportunity, before the next round of Star Wars stuff hits the world? Who knows.

If you have to sell your DVC membership at the down points in valuation.... that is bad. If you bought it when it was "down" and it is now high, and you need to sell it, that is good. Profit or loss is only realized if you sell. The thing to remember is that while you HAVE it.... you can go to Disney and enjoy it no matter what the current "valuation".

Family, friends, and experiences in life are the important stuff. Things are secondary.

best,

...............john