Strmchsr
09-01-2016, 11:29 AM
I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:
Weather at WDW - Update Sunday am, September 18, 2016
I'm leaving for Europe today for a couple of weeks to teach on a Journeys of the Apostle Paul tour. I will have internet so I'll be checking in as often as possible, but if I miss a day and you need an update the best place to check local Orlando weather is here (http://www.wftv.com/weather) and for the tropical go to the National Hurricane Center here (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/).
The high today will be 90-92 with a 30% chance of a brief storm. Tomorrow will be 87-89 with a 60% chance of a thunderstorm, though it shouldn't be a long lasting rain if one move through. Tuesday through Sunday highs will run 88-90 with a 40% chance of a sea breeze thunderstorm each afternoon. Those storms will fire up. It's just impossible to say where they'll go each day. But if one moves over your area it won't last too long.
Long range...Sept 26-27 a front moves close and will bump up the number of scattered thunderstorms with highs around 90. Then on Sept 28 the front moves through bringing some showers. Sept 29-Oct 1 the front stalls out bringing a good chance of storms each day with highs in the mid 80s. Take that with a grain of salt since it's voodooland, but even if this was the case each day wouldn't be a washout. Just an increased chance of storms popping up. Oct 2-4 highs are in the mid to upper 80s with a slight chance of a brief afternoon storm.
Travel Issues :drive::plane:
No major issues today or tomorrow, though the most likely place for a delay tomorrow will be around Chicago.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/Turbulent-air-travel-nothing-to-fear-4058671.php) and here (http://www.askcaptainlim.com/-fear-of-flying-flying-48.html) to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics :fan:
TD Julia remains a depression this morning with 30 mph sustained winds and looks like it will slowly drift north thanks to a front over the next 2-3 days towards North Carolina. But it you look at the model output for Julia it looks like you let a child loose with colored pencils. There are scribbles all over the place. So, Julia is not going anywhere any time soon but it doesn't look like it'll pose any real issue for land either. Shear and dry air will keep it from developing again.
TS Karl is still moving across the Atlantic and looks likely to become a hurricane. The models are in very good agreement about Karl turning away from the US and Caribbean but Bermuda could take a hit. That situation needs to be watched carefully.
Invest 96L is off the coast of Africa and looks likely to develop but it should turn out into the Atlantic with no threat to land.
The models aren't showing too much of a slow down as the wave train keeps rolling, but for now no threat to the US coast and hopefully it stays that way!
Weather at WDW - Update Sunday am, September 18, 2016
I'm leaving for Europe today for a couple of weeks to teach on a Journeys of the Apostle Paul tour. I will have internet so I'll be checking in as often as possible, but if I miss a day and you need an update the best place to check local Orlando weather is here (http://www.wftv.com/weather) and for the tropical go to the National Hurricane Center here (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/).
The high today will be 90-92 with a 30% chance of a brief storm. Tomorrow will be 87-89 with a 60% chance of a thunderstorm, though it shouldn't be a long lasting rain if one move through. Tuesday through Sunday highs will run 88-90 with a 40% chance of a sea breeze thunderstorm each afternoon. Those storms will fire up. It's just impossible to say where they'll go each day. But if one moves over your area it won't last too long.
Long range...Sept 26-27 a front moves close and will bump up the number of scattered thunderstorms with highs around 90. Then on Sept 28 the front moves through bringing some showers. Sept 29-Oct 1 the front stalls out bringing a good chance of storms each day with highs in the mid 80s. Take that with a grain of salt since it's voodooland, but even if this was the case each day wouldn't be a washout. Just an increased chance of storms popping up. Oct 2-4 highs are in the mid to upper 80s with a slight chance of a brief afternoon storm.
Travel Issues :drive::plane:
No major issues today or tomorrow, though the most likely place for a delay tomorrow will be around Chicago.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://www.sfgate.com/travel/article/Turbulent-air-travel-nothing-to-fear-4058671.php) and here (http://www.askcaptainlim.com/-fear-of-flying-flying-48.html) to learn a lot about turbulence and other issues that sometimes cause anxiety when flying. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics :fan:
TD Julia remains a depression this morning with 30 mph sustained winds and looks like it will slowly drift north thanks to a front over the next 2-3 days towards North Carolina. But it you look at the model output for Julia it looks like you let a child loose with colored pencils. There are scribbles all over the place. So, Julia is not going anywhere any time soon but it doesn't look like it'll pose any real issue for land either. Shear and dry air will keep it from developing again.
TS Karl is still moving across the Atlantic and looks likely to become a hurricane. The models are in very good agreement about Karl turning away from the US and Caribbean but Bermuda could take a hit. That situation needs to be watched carefully.
Invest 96L is off the coast of Africa and looks likely to develop but it should turn out into the Atlantic with no threat to land.
The models aren't showing too much of a slow down as the wave train keeps rolling, but for now no threat to the US coast and hopefully it stays that way!