Strmchsr
08-02-2013, 03:02 PM
I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:
Weather at WDW - Update Friday pm, August 30, 2013
Today through Wednesday highs will run 91-93 with a 35% chance of a thunderstorm. Thursday and Friday a trough will develop over the eastern US. Highs will be around 90 with a 40% chance of a thunderstorm.
Long range...Sept 7-15 highs run around 90 with rainfall slightly above average.
Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
No major issues the next couple of days.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics :fan:
The wave coming off the coast of Africa has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days, but it is a higher latitude system, and most likely will recurve over the open Atlantic and won’t be a threat to land. A wave over the Central Atlantic still looks disorganized with little convection. It, also, shouldn't be a worry for WDW.
Other than that, not much going on and the models don't develop anything else over the next 10 days or so. It's possible we may hit the peak of hurricane season (Sept 10) with the weakest season on record (lowest ACE values - Acculated Cyclone Energy - it measures not how many storms there have been, but how much energy those storms have expended). We've had 6 storms so far this season, which is about average, but all of those storms have been very weak and short-lived. 93 is the average ACE for a season (the record for the Atlantic is 250 in 2005) and right now we sit at 8. But, that's what makes weather so much fun. Alabama, where I just moved from, had its 3rd coldest summer on record, the FL Panhandle, where I am now, has had record rainfall the last 2 months, and a hurricane season that was forecast to be well above normal has been the weakest no record even though many of the ingredients are in place that should allow storms to develop. It's why weather is never boring! No, this isn't some ridiculous "global warming" phenomenon. It's just part of the (in Disney language) Circle of Life. Weather changes. Some years it's hot, some cool, some wet and some dry. It's all part of the cycle and it's fun to try to figure out.
Weather at WDW - Update Friday pm, August 30, 2013
Today through Wednesday highs will run 91-93 with a 35% chance of a thunderstorm. Thursday and Friday a trough will develop over the eastern US. Highs will be around 90 with a 40% chance of a thunderstorm.
Long range...Sept 7-15 highs run around 90 with rainfall slightly above average.
Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
No major issues the next couple of days.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics :fan:
The wave coming off the coast of Africa has a high chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days, but it is a higher latitude system, and most likely will recurve over the open Atlantic and won’t be a threat to land. A wave over the Central Atlantic still looks disorganized with little convection. It, also, shouldn't be a worry for WDW.
Other than that, not much going on and the models don't develop anything else over the next 10 days or so. It's possible we may hit the peak of hurricane season (Sept 10) with the weakest season on record (lowest ACE values - Acculated Cyclone Energy - it measures not how many storms there have been, but how much energy those storms have expended). We've had 6 storms so far this season, which is about average, but all of those storms have been very weak and short-lived. 93 is the average ACE for a season (the record for the Atlantic is 250 in 2005) and right now we sit at 8. But, that's what makes weather so much fun. Alabama, where I just moved from, had its 3rd coldest summer on record, the FL Panhandle, where I am now, has had record rainfall the last 2 months, and a hurricane season that was forecast to be well above normal has been the weakest no record even though many of the ingredients are in place that should allow storms to develop. It's why weather is never boring! No, this isn't some ridiculous "global warming" phenomenon. It's just part of the (in Disney language) Circle of Life. Weather changes. Some years it's hot, some cool, some wet and some dry. It's all part of the cycle and it's fun to try to figure out.