Strmchsr
05-01-2013, 08:34 AM
I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:
Weather at WDW - Update Friday pm, May 31, 2013
The high today is trying to make it to the 86-87 range, but thunderstorms are starting to fire up and may keep things down a little bit. Tomorrow through Friday will sound a lot like a broken record - highs 87-89 with a good chance of scattered thunderstorms firing up every afternoon. You'll have about a 40% chance of one moving over you at WDW. When they do move over they won't last long (usually less than an hour) but they can be pretty intense so it's best to go inside and hang out.
Long range...June 8-16 shows highs in the mid to upper 80s with a 50-50 chance of an afternoon thunderstorm each day. You can see the details below but the afternoon model run today no longer shows Orlando impacted by the tropical system next week. That can change in the next run, but that's what it's showing for now.
Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
Yet another “moderate risk” of severe weather for parts of Oklahoma today, but this will be their last severe weather day for a while. A “slight risk” extends from near Childress, Texas to Chicago as the active convective pattern across the nation’s mid-section continues. Thunderstorms, and potentially severe weather, will be possible tomorrow over TX, LA, MS, AR, TN, AL, MO, KY IL, IN, MI, and OH.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics :fan:
Looks like the remnants of East Pacific Hurricane Barbara, now on the Gulf Coast of Mexico in the far southern Bay of Campeche, will drift westward back over land, so re-development is not likely. However, the 00z and 06z GFS developed a tropical storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moved it into Florida in the June 7-8 time frame. the 00z was near Cedar Key while the 06z was back west near Panama City. Either of those options would mean pretty heavy rain for Orlando, but nothing major. However, the 12z run shows only a fairly weak tropical depression moving across southern Florida with no impact on Orlando at all. As I said yesterday, the models will continue to flip flop on this and it'll be Monday, at the earliest, before I can say with any confidence what will happen.
Weather at WDW - Update Friday pm, May 31, 2013
The high today is trying to make it to the 86-87 range, but thunderstorms are starting to fire up and may keep things down a little bit. Tomorrow through Friday will sound a lot like a broken record - highs 87-89 with a good chance of scattered thunderstorms firing up every afternoon. You'll have about a 40% chance of one moving over you at WDW. When they do move over they won't last long (usually less than an hour) but they can be pretty intense so it's best to go inside and hang out.
Long range...June 8-16 shows highs in the mid to upper 80s with a 50-50 chance of an afternoon thunderstorm each day. You can see the details below but the afternoon model run today no longer shows Orlando impacted by the tropical system next week. That can change in the next run, but that's what it's showing for now.
Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
Yet another “moderate risk” of severe weather for parts of Oklahoma today, but this will be their last severe weather day for a while. A “slight risk” extends from near Childress, Texas to Chicago as the active convective pattern across the nation’s mid-section continues. Thunderstorms, and potentially severe weather, will be possible tomorrow over TX, LA, MS, AR, TN, AL, MO, KY IL, IN, MI, and OH.
Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!
Tropics :fan:
Looks like the remnants of East Pacific Hurricane Barbara, now on the Gulf Coast of Mexico in the far southern Bay of Campeche, will drift westward back over land, so re-development is not likely. However, the 00z and 06z GFS developed a tropical storm over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and moved it into Florida in the June 7-8 time frame. the 00z was near Cedar Key while the 06z was back west near Panama City. Either of those options would mean pretty heavy rain for Orlando, but nothing major. However, the 12z run shows only a fairly weak tropical depression moving across southern Florida with no impact on Orlando at all. As I said yesterday, the models will continue to flip flop on this and it'll be Monday, at the earliest, before I can say with any confidence what will happen.