WDW Weather Forecast - March 30-April 15, 2013

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Saturday pm, March 30, 2013
It's a beautiful day at WDW with a high of 76, about 9 degrees below what many of the models had pegged, but fortunately, we knew better than to trust those. Tomorrow should be 76-78 and an absolutely gorgeous Easter Sunday. Scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm will move through on Monday with a high 75-77. Tuesday and Wednesday should be mostly dry with only a small chance of an isolated afternoon shower and highs 78-80. Thursday another more organized round of rain will move through late in the day. Right now it looks like during the overnight hours into early Friday morning so Thursday's high should be 80-82. The rain should move out Friday morning with a high 73-75. Saturday will be clear with the high staying around 75.

Long range...April 7 looks sunny and warming to 80-82. April 8-14 looks mostly dry, only a slight chance of pop up afternoon showers, with highs in the low to mid 80s. April 15 looks a little wet with a high in the mid 70s.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
Major non-weather delays in Baltimore this afternoon. The best chance for a delay tomorrow will be over TX, LA, and MS.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[MOJoe]

Thanks Chris. It is snowing here in Southern Missouri right now. :snowball: I am so looking forward to Disney and 75 degrees on March 8th!:sun:

[andypooh]

what's the normal high this time of year?

[Strmchsr]

what's the normal high this time of year?

74 for early March. The overall March "average" temp is 78.

[luvDaMouse]

Chris,
I fly out Wednesday night at 6:50 out of Philadelphia... do you think I will have any problems getting out?
Dana

[Strmchsr]

Hey, Dana. It looks like a definite possibility you could see delays and/or cancellations tomorrow. The worst of the storm looks to be south of Philadelphia, but Philly will get enough to cause some problems. The models are synced up pretty well and it looks like it'll start tomorrow morning and last through early Thursday morning. Hopefully you'll be able to get to the airport and your flight will be a go. Sorry I don't have better news! Hopefully the low will push just a bit further south and Philly won't be as impacted.

[Disneybound13]

Chris,

What do you think about chance of rain during the day on Tuesday, March 12? Several forecasts predict 60% chance of rain. Having lunch at Cinderella Castle w/ 4 year old so have to be at Magic Kingdom. We're hoping to have a full day at the park!

[Strmchsr]

:welcome: to Intercot!!!

The models are waffling between Tuesday during the day and at night for the storm system. Right now the most consistent models are showing during the day on Tuesday, but that isn't set in stone yet. Even so, it doesn't look like the rain will be heavy or a really big deal. Keep a poncho handy and keep going. It doesn't look like heavy rain or anything that would ruin your fun in the parks. In fact, rain days can be some of the best days in the parks! I'll keep you posted over the next day or two.

[Disneybound13]

Thanks! We're trying to figure out the best times to be at the park. (if avoiding rain is possible). My 4 year old still naps so at some point we'll leave, go back to resort, and hopefully come back!

[Strmchsr]

Given what the charts are showing right now, that would probably be a good plan. It looks like morning and evening will be clear with the rain in the afternoon. But, quite honestly, models don't do well with specific timing until you get a day or two out. At this point it's always going to be a +/- of 12 hours on the timing of the system.

[Jared]

I'm going to be in the park on March 12 as well! Bring some good news, Chris!

[Mitzie]

Yippeee:yay: You know the trip is close when Chris starts your weather forecast! We leave on the 29th but won't get to WDW till the 1st. But with us still getting snow in Northern Indiana..I am ready for the palm trees baby!

[DisneyorBust]

Morning Chris!
I'm keeping a close eye on your forecasts, especially for the time frame of March 20-25. It's looking pretty good except for the 24th. Hopefully the storms won't be too severe and we'll just wear our ponchos and have a great time!
Storms do have a way of clearing crowds from the parks....:D So this rain could be a good thing after all.
Thanks again, we appreciate you helping our trip preparation.

[Strmchsr]

Hey, Eric. It doesn't look like a severe set up right now, just heavy rain, it'll definitely be a few days before we really know what will happen. Hopefully it won't be too wet for you!

[DisneyorBust]

Thanks Chris. It seems that the weather just keeps changing! I'll keep checking in daily and make my final packing decisions on Tuesday, regardless of the weather there is great times to be had!

[Strmchsr]

Yeah, Eric, unfortunately the long range models are almost completely worthless this time of the year. They just don't handle the seasonal changes well. In general the pattern looks like at or below normal temps, though.

[Mitzie]

Yeah, Eric, unfortunately the long range models are almost completely worthless this time of the year. They just don't handle the seasonal changes well. In general the pattern looks like at or below normal temps, though.

Thanks Chris..I feel alittle better. Right now Accuweather shows clouds and rain on Wed. the 3rd and clouds or storms Thurs. and Friday..We are there the 1st -6th..Work your magic Chris and give us a good forecast.

[DisneyorBust]

Many thanks Chris! With your predictions we have packed our luggage appropriately. I really appreciate your assistance in planning for all of us here on Intercot.

[Strmchsr]

My pleasure, Eric! Have a wonderful trip!!

[MILWDIANA]

Miss your updates Stormchaser..... Hope all is ok...... :confused:

[Strmchsr]

Miss your updates Stormchaser..... Hope all is ok...... :confused:

Diana, thanks for the concern. All is well. I've had 2 deaths in my church this week so I've been EXTREMELY busy (not to mention it's Holy Week, which is also quite busy for a pastor). I'll have a new update up in about 45 min. Thanks for asking!

[MILWDIANA]

Good to hear.... Had no idea you were a pastor. :) My daughter leaves tomorrow for a week and would like to give her last minute packing advise. :mickey: Although just about anything is better than this cold Wisconsin spring!! LOL

[Strmchsr]

Good to hear.... Had no idea you were a pastor. :) My daughter leaves tomorrow for a week and would like to give her last minute packing advise. :mickey: Although just about anything is better than this cold Wisconsin spring!! LOL

Yep. That I am. After some time as a meteorologist and getting my undergrad degree in meteorology God had other plans for me. :mickey: I just posted the update so your daughter will know how to pack!