WDW Weather Forecast - February 27-March 15, 2013

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Wednesday pm, February 27, 2013
The high today should top out around 71. That's a couple of degrees under what I said, but many of the models were showing highs of 77-78 today. The models don't handle this shallow cold air very well, which is why I think those showing low 60s for Sunday are completely wrong. Tomorrow should be 71-73, then 66-68 for Friday. Saturday the front pushes through. It could touch off isolated light showers, but no major rain. Saturday's high will be around 60. The low Sunday morning should be below freezing and the high will only be 50-52 with a strong north breeze that should keep the wind chill well down into the 30s. Monday expect the morning to start off, again, 30-32, but things will begin to warm up with a high 61-63. Tuesday should be back around 70-72. Scattered showers are possible Wednesday with the next front approaching. The high should make it to around 72 before the rain starts.

Long range...March 7-10 looks dry with highs in the low 70s for March 7 but then mid to upper 70s for March 8-10. Rain and thunderstorms arrive March 11. Due to a stalled front and several impulses from the Gulf, the afternoon models are showing rain and thunderstorms possible every day March 12-15 with highs in the low 70s. This is voodooland, though, and I would say that's only a remote possibility. We'll see what things look like tomorrow.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
At 1:30 pm CST, Chicago is delayed due to snow and NYC due to high winds. For tomorrow, the best chance for a delay will be over PA, NY, NJ and most of New England.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[Trev&Ev Mom]

oh no voodooland...it got worse!! Feb 12-16 not looking so good. Fingers crossed, toes crossed that it will get better!!

[Strmchsr]

Voodooland can always cause a lot of anxiety, but remember, past 7 days the exact details of the models are useless, only the overall pattern. It looks like we'll have an active pattern, but exactly which days rain may happen and the temps that follow is still very much up in the air.

[Trev&Ev Mom]

Voodooland can always cause a lot of anxiety, but remember, past 7 days the exact details of the models are useless, only the overall pattern. It looks like we'll have an active pattern, but exactly which days rain may happen and the temps that follow is still very much up in the air.

Thanks Chris!! I'll keep checking back!

[Cass&KenziesMom]

Mid 60's sounds fabulous for the 15th-18th! Just remember...you'll be surrounded by asphalt and concrete. That will up the temps a bit. :D

[Strmchsr]

Mid 60's sounds fabulous for the 15th-18th! Just remember...you'll be surrounded by asphalt and concrete. That will up the temps a bit. :D

While that's true, you're also in a fairly windy location surrounded by water, which tends to make the temps feel more extreme (water makes hot feel hotter and cold feel colder).

[Buttercup]

Will the historical temperatures for 2012 be added to the Intercot page soon? Just curious. I guess I could easily google it! Haha I just like my Disney info all in one place! Lol

[Strmchsr]

Will the historical temperatures for 2012 be added to the Intercot page soon? Just curious. I guess I could easily google it! Haha I just like my Disney info all in one place! Lol

Not sure. I suppose I could go back and collect all of those. My schedule went crazy in 2012 and wasn't able to keep track of all of this historical data. We might resume for 2013. For the most part, 2012, across the board, was hotter and drier than normal for Orlando.

[Trev&Ev Mom]

Not sure. I suppose I could go back and collect all of those. My schedule went crazy in 2012 and wasn't able to keep track of all of this historical data. We might resume for 2013. For the most part, 2012, across the board, was hotter and drier than normal for Orlando.

I think it can be easily be found on the monthly page at accuweather.com

[Strmchsr]

I think it can be easily be found on the monthly page at accuweather.com

You're correct in that you can get last year's temp data there, but not the rain or conditions data. Have to go through NOAA for that. The problem is not in collecting the data but in the way our website is designed and formatting it to get it all put in correctly. It's very time consuming and a big pain. So, trying to find an easier way to do it so that we can continue to update that information without it taking so long to do it.

[jnfr2424]

I know its voodoo land but here's hoping that forecast changes (especially for my birthday on the 19th) I'm traveling to Florida to escape the cold not to be a part of it!

[sainter]

Chris,
Kinda short notice, but wondering what kind of travel weather to expect between Chicago and St. Louis tomorrow (Fri) and then back again on Sunday?
Thanks!!

[Strmchsr]

Chris,
Kinda short notice, but wondering what kind of travel weather to expect between Chicago and St. Louis tomorrow (Fri) and then back again on Sunday?
Thanks!!

Looks like snow should move out of the Chicago area early tomorrow morning and no other issues between the two. Sunday looks like a cold rain. At the moment it seems the change over to snow will wait until late Sunday evening. While tomorrow doesn't look like a big deal, Sunday will definitely need to be watched.

[sainter]

Thanks so much Chris. You are awesome! The weather Sunday, maybe not so much. It is my son & friends driving... I will pray for just rain.

[Strmchsr]

I will pray for just rain.

On the latest models it still looks like the snow possibility won't come until late Sunday. I hope it stays that way!!

[DisneyBarb]

As someone who is looking at 24 plus inches of snow out my window right now, 60s/70s sound okay to me on the 18-21st, swimming with the dolphins on the 19th so hopefully it will be rain free. Thanks for the updates, I look everyday anytime I'm scheduled to go to Florida!

[jnfr2424]

As someone who is looking at 24 plus inches of snow out my window right now, 60s/70s sound okay to me on the 18-21st, swimming with the dolphins on the 19th so hopefully it will be rain free. Thanks for the updates, I look everyday anytime I'm scheduled to go to Florida!

If there was a LIKE button I would hit it right now! Just hoping there will be no more snow to delay the start of vacation time!

[BigRedDad]

I am not willing to accept the voodooland forecast!!! I need the weather pattern to change back to low 80s. Oh well, can't control the weather.

[MOJoe]

O.K. Great. Since i am due to arrive March 6th, that guarantees there will be snow and 30 degree temps at WDW that day! :thedolls::mad::thedolls:

[emerzmom]

What??? Snow flurries in Orlando in March??? High in the mid 30's on my Spring Break trip??? The only snow I thought Orlando gets is the soap flakes during MVMCP :mickey: I guess I need to rethink my packing.
:tink:
Julie

[Buttercup]

Of course. The week I'm at WDW its gonna be as cold as it is here in Canada. Guess I'd better repack the suitcases!

[Buttercup]

Hey Stormchaser -
I'm going to be arriving at WDW on Sunday March 3. That is 7-days from now, so it shouldn't be Voodooland anymore but everywhere I look is a different forecast.
You're expecting 40's but then I'm finding other forecasts saying 50's and 60's for Sunday.
Will there start to be more agreement as we get closer to next Sunday?
Some forecasts are even suggesting high 70's by Tuesday but I'm trying not to get my hopes up since that's still Voodoo at this point.
I'm just trying to figure out what to pack and I don't know if this is a Winter Coat and Gloves, or a thick sweatshirt kind of week I'm looking forward to. :)

[BigRedDad]

Laughing at Buttercup. We leave in 2 days. It is going to be as cold in Orlando as it is in NC. No pool or waterpark days. I have not seen that at WDW in a long time for any 7-day period. I will still not be at work, but I need to factor an Epcot day in there as well now.

[Strmchsr]

Will there start to be more agreement as we get closer to next Sunday?

Yes, definitely. The models are all over the place. I'm giving my best thoughts, but I am, admittedly, leaning towards the colder solution so that no one is caught off guard. I'll have an update up between 11 and 12 CST today and we'll see if there's better model agreement. It's going to be colder, but just a question of how much.

[BigRedDad]

I'm just trying to figure out what to pack and I don't know if this is a Winter Coat and Gloves, or a thick sweatshirt kind of week I'm looking forward to. :)
You're from Canada. It is FL. You will be in shorts and sweatshirt weather no matter what :mickey:. I was hoping for water weather, but that is out being in the 60s or colder for highs. Still shorts and sweatshirt weather.

[Buttercup]

You're from Canada. It is FL. You will be in shorts and sweatshirt weather no matter what.
Its going to be colder in Florida than at home in Canada. I don't think I'll be packing shorts thank y'very much. :D

[Buttercup]

Wahoo! I appreciate you giving us the worst case scenario so that when it turns out to be not so bad it's like a pleasant surprise! I can deal with the 60's and 70's! Thanks as always!

[emerzmom]

This is starting to look a little better for my trip (no snow) but it still looks really cold Sunday thru Tuesday.
Wind chill near freezing! :freeze:
:tink:
Julie