WDW Weather Forecast - January 31-Feb 16, 2013

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Thursday am, January 31, 2013
I'm at WDW this week teaching at Disney's leadership conference for church leaders. So, I'll check in as much as possible, but just in case I can't update one day click here (http://www.myfoxorlando.com/category/230862/weather). It's the Fox affiliate 7 day forecast page which is usually pretty good.

After spring-like warmth all week a front moved through this morning that has dropped temps. The rain was out before daybreak but this morning feels noticeably cooler than the last few days. No rain in sight for tomorrow through Thursday beyond the always slim possibility of a light, brief pop up shower in the afternoon. Today should see a high 64-65 and tomorrow will be 65-67. Saturday will run around 70. Highs will stay 70-72 for Sunday and Monday, then 72-74 for Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday highs will hang around 75, give or take a degree. Generally lows will run upper 40s to around 50 all week so it could be a little cool in the mornings and evenings but should be quite comfortable during the day.

Long range...Feb 8-12 still looks dry with highs in the mid to upper 70s as a ridge builds in. Feb 13 could see rain and thunderstorms, but it doesn't look like too big of a rain event at the moment. Obviously this is still voodooland so we'll need to keep an eye on how the system develops. Feb 14-16 should stay dry with highs in the mid 70s.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
No major issues today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[Madame Leona]

Thanks for the weather update!! We are leaving the day after tomorrow and I'm having such a hard time deciding what to pack :mad: Hopefully this will help me make up my mind!!

[Strmchsr]

Have a wonderful trip!!

[Madame Leona]

Thanks!!

[BiloxiMom]

Our 11th thru the 19th trip isn't looking so good.. cold and rain... yuck!

[Strmchsr]

Our 11th thru the 19th trip isn't looking so good.. cold and rain... yuck!

Always keep in mind voodooland constantly changes, but, that said, the pattern is looking pretty active through January. Expect a rain chance every 3-4 days and temps to be at or just below normal.

[Melanie]

Looking windy for Marathon weekend. Not ideal conditions. Hubby isn't happy. :unsure:

[Strmchsr]

Looking windy for Marathon weekend. Not ideal conditions. Hubby isn't happy. :unsure:

That's another voodooland date we keep hoping will change. Tonight's models look quite stormy for marathon weekend, and they're being pretty consistent about at least some rain that weekend, but until we're under the 7 days mark I wouldn't worry about it.

[tadcd]

Eagerly tracking these posts. I am hoping the upward trend in temperatures continues into the first week of February. My little boy is preparing with his first swimming lessons and I just picked up a pretty new swimsuit today :blush: So, please let it be warm enough to enjoy Stormalong Bay!

Pretty please....

:mickey:

[Strmchsr]

Eagerly tracking these posts. I am hoping the upward trend in temperatures continues into the first week of February.

It's certainly possible, but at the moment I would say don't count on it and be pleasantly surprised if it does happen. While it's impossible to tell specifics, the overall pattern for the rest of January is looking like below normal temps for the eastern half of the US.

[Jared]

Martin Luther King weekend is officially in "voodoo-land," and it looks cold! Well, cool and sunny is better than hot and rainy.

[Jared]

Martin Luther King weekend is officially in "voodoo-land," and it looks cold! Well, cool and sunny is better than hot and rainy.
Did I jinx myself? Today, I see the potential of warm and rainy over that weekend, particularly Jan. 19! I'll have to call on the wise Steve to assuage my nerves.

[Jared]

Why did I write Steve in my last post? I totally meant Chris. Sorry, Chris! You just became Steve for as long as this thread exists!

[Strmchsr]

Why did I write Steve in my last post? I totally meant Chris. Sorry, Chris! You just became Steve for as long as this thread exists!

:D I've been called a lot worse. Especially when I miss a forecast.

As for the 19th - don't worry about it. Lots of model madness in voodooland right now. The Euro and GFS models keep flipping between warm and cold, wet and dry. They're all over the place right now. Give it a couple of more days to see how things shake out.

[Jared]

Unfortunately, the front doesn't move and Jan 19-20 look wet and stormy as well with highs in the upper 60s.
Um, I'm ignoring this.


Now, again, let me say to those of you who will be there next week - don't panic. This is still voodooland. The models can (and probably will) say something totally different tomorrow.
And paying attention to this.

Chris/Steve, make it happen! ;)

[Dopey's Girl]

Um, I'm ignoring this.


And paying attention to this.

Chris/Steve, make it happen! ;)

I'm with you Jared! I fly in on the 16th and am hoping for more weather like they have been having! I'm over cold, wet and gray! We have enough of that here in MN!

[Jared]

I'm with you Jared! I fly in on the 16th and am hoping for more weather like they have been having! I'm over cold, wet and gray! We have enough of that here in MN!
See, the forecast is already looking up! Chris/Steve (yep, just go with it), how confident are you in the forecast for Jan. 19-21? And if it does rain, are we looking at brief scattered showers and storms or an all-day washout?

[Strmchsr]

See, the forecast is already looking up! Chris/Steve (yep, just go with it), how confident are you in the forecast for Jan. 19-21? And if it does rain, are we looking at brief scattered showers and storms or an all-day washout?

At the moment confidence is low in the forecast beyond 5 days. Too many models showing entirely different scenarios. Generally once the Euro and GFS sync up I feel a lot more confidence, but not yet.

The models do seem to agree any rain that weekend would be scattered and light. Jan 22 seems like the only major rain event.

[Dopey's Girl]

See, the forecast is already looking up! Chris/Steve (yep, just go with it), how confident are you in the forecast for Jan. 19-21? And if it does rain, are we looking at brief scattered showers and storms or an all-day washout?

Yep, looking better. I have to say this is the thread I check the most. Chris is the best!

[Wolf]

I'm following this thread simply because its 37 and pouring down rain right now..I need some happy in my world at the moment. Everyone going down right now soak up some warmth for me! :mickey:

[Strmchsr]

:D It is always nice to check in on Disney weather when things are miserable at home. :mickey:

[Melanie]

Voodooland is prevailing this month, I think. Man, it was HOT this past weekend. Too hot for the runners, that's for sure.

[Strmchsr]

No doubt. I was hurting for the runners. Next week should be more in line with what the runners wanted. Nice for those of you enjoying the parks, though.

[Jared]

MLK weekend is officially out of voodoo land, and it's looking pretty fantastic! Did you wish the wet weather out of town?

[Strmchsr]

MLK weekend is officially out of voodoo land, and it's looking pretty fantastic! Did you wish the wet weather out of town?

I wish I could take credit when things go well, but then I'd have to take the blame when it backfires. :D

[Melanie]

No doubt. I was hurting for the runners. Next week should be more in line with what the runners wanted. Nice for those of you enjoying the parks, though.

Not for me, Chris. :unsure: Anytime I sweat in the parks, it's not really enjoyable. Saturday afternoon was HOT. Expected in July, but unwelcome in January.

[Janmac]

Chris, asking about voodooland here, and info regarding our route to WDW, which passes through Memphis and Tupelo, currently enjoying a ice storm warnings and winter weather watches.

What sort of chances would you guess we have for this same sort of weather the first few days of February, with that shot of cold air in late January?

I'm holding off on the overnight reservation as long as I can, watching the weather patterns and wondering if I'm going to refigure our route.

Jan

[Strmchsr]

What sort of chances would you guess we have for this same sort of weather the first few days of February, with that shot of cold air in late January?

Hey, Jan. It is voodooland, but the pattern looks pretty unsettled at the end of the month and a couple of Gulf runners look like a definite possibility. The models today have the rain/snow line right around Memphis and it'll depend on whether it comes over or stays just north. Too early to tell, but the possibility is there for a snow/ice issue for Memphis around that time.

[Janmac]

Thanks, Chris. Not sure which is preferrable - skinny band of freezing rain or a wide band of heavy rain, embedded tornadoes and widespread flooding.

And those're not our only options. Gotta love winter traveling. :thumbsup:

Jan

[Strmchsr]

I know the feeling! :D The issue of tornadoes and flooding I don't think is a big one. The freezing rain is possible, but the line is so close, and it's still in voodooland, so no way to say for sure one way or the other just yet.

[tadcd]

For swimming weather sometime between Feb 2 to 9 - really mid 70s would be warm enough...

Hope the Boss is listening, I know well enough that there is no negotiating :blush:

Kidding aside, the kiddo endured trying on all of his short sleeve shirts and shorts from the summer this afternoon. I have 5 sets of summer outfits plus 5 extra t shirts for 7 days down there. Plan to pack these in his day bag and start and end the day in jeans.

Have long sleeves for every day plus three sweaters, a windbreaker and a heavier coat but not super heavy. Between the two outfits (assuming cooler/warmer/cooler temps..we are out by 8:30 am, nap 1-3:30 pm and in again by 7:30 pm) plus the ability to layer as needed, I think I'm OK :confused:

My husband had to talk me down at the outlet mall from going into more than Stride Rite for new sneakers -kiddo's feet are two different sizes, off topic - and Carters for more sweats.

I should just be mentally prepared to do laundry which is nearly constant at home but I don't want to spend the time that way...:(

Value season's drawback I guess is the uncertainty of the weather...

[Strmchsr]

Value season's drawback I guess is the uncertainty of the weather...

Very true! Even if you get a few days of perfect weather, chances are you'll get at least a day or two of cooler weather/threat of rain over a 7 day vacation. It's just part of going this time of the year.

[tadcd]

Keeping my fingers crossed the beautiful weather predicted for early February holds true.

:mickey: can't wait for time at Storm along Bay

:cloud9:

[Crow]

thanks for the updates. looking forward to my arrival Feb 2

[Crow]

sounds good. ill be there Sat afternoon til Friday. thanks

[Jennifer_and_Chris]

We are leaving in 17days. I am totally stalking this thread! Once we get into voodoo land, I will really, really be stalking this! :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

We are leaving in 17days. I am totally stalking this thread! Once we get into voodoo land, I will really, really be stalking this! :thumbsup:

You're into voodooland tomorrow! :mickey:

[Cass&KenziesMom]

I'm liking the long range forecast more and more every day! Hopefully it sticks with the dry from the Feb. 6th-13th. Not too keen on rain for Valentines Day but we'll already have one full MK day under our belt so not stressing too much. :mickey:

[Janmac]

We are leaving in 17days. I am totally stalking this thread! Once we get into voodoo land, I will really, really be stalking this! :thumbsup:

This has been me the whole month. I was looking at the forecast tonight and thinking, okay, "Friday through Tuesday looks mostly dry" - this is during our arrival! It was confusing there for a minute, not to be in voodooland any more.

Thank you, Chris for all you do! :thumbsup:

Jan

[Notabene]

Stalking, stalking, stalking! We are there Feb 6 - 12 and the forecast has gotten better every time I have looked :thumbsup::thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Stalking, stalking, stalking! We are there Feb 6 - 12 and the forecast has gotten better every time I have looked :thumbsup::thumbsup:

:welcome: to Intercot!!! I hope you have a wonderful upcoming trip. :mickey:

[lawgirl]

I have never been in April! We are scheduled for April 27-30. What kind of weather can we expect? Thanks, as always, for your expert advice!

[Trev&Ev Mom]

Stalking, stalking, stalking! We are there Feb 6 - 12 and the forecast has gotten better every time I have looked :thumbsup::thumbsup:

Stalking here too...our days are Feb 12-16 and not happy! The prediction was better earlier and now not so much. I checked out the Fox 34 site and it says 60's and rain for most of the days...NOOOOOOO!!!

I'm going to start my anti-raindance soon!! Hopefully things will change in our favor!!

[Strmchsr]

I have never been in April! We are scheduled for April 27-30. What kind of weather can we expect? Thanks, as always, for your expert advice!

In general, warm (possibly hot) and dry. That's before the normal afternoon thunderstorms fire up. It can be low 80s and comfortable or low to mid 90s and quite hot. I've seen both during that time. The 90s are a bit abnormal, though.


I'm going to start my anti-raindance soon!! Hopefully things will change in our favor!!

I'll get an update in the February weather thread up in a couple of hours. Since that's still "voodooland" expect the pattern to flip back and forth a bit until we're in the 7 day "safe" zone.

[lawgirl]

Thanks Chris! Sounds perfect to me! We love warm/hot weather, so I'm thinking this is going to be the perfect time for us to be there.

I'll be "stalking" your post as soon as it gets closer to time.

Thanks!