WDW Weather Forecast - December 31, 2012 - Jan 16, 2013

[Strmchsr]

I'll update this first post each day with the forecast (though I'll occasionally miss a day), both long and short term. As a general rule, up to 7 days is a pretty accurate forecast, beyond that it's educated guessing and largely dependent upon how well the models are doing at that moment, which is why I call it "voodooland." If you have any specific weather questions or comments, even if it's for an area other than WDW, please post and I'll answer throughout the thread. I'll also post weather tidbits every so often. If you want to see the exact conditions for your travel dates over the last few years, go to our historic weather page in Info Central here (http://www.intercot.com/infocentral/weather/dailytemps.asp). Without further delay, let's get to the forecast:

Weather at WDW - Update Monday pm, December 31, 2012
Much warmer today with enough sun to push the high to 73. New Year's Day should be very nice with a high 75-77. A front is pushing south and will stall over northern Florida tomorrow night. The question becomes when does the rain make it to Orlando. There is some disagreement among the models about this. Right now it looks like Wednesday should be mostly dry with maybe a very slight chance of a brief isolated shower and a high 76-78. Thursday will be similar at 76-78. Showers and thunderstorms should begin to move in late in the afternoon and then rain will be a threat until Friday morning. Friday should have a high 73-75. Saturday through Monday looks dry with a high 70-72 on Saturday and then around 75 for Sunday and Monday.

Long range...Jan 8-12 looks dry with highs mostly in the mid 70s. Jan 13 a front brings some rain, but today it doesn't look too strong. The high will be near 70. Jan 14-16 stays dry with highs in the low to mid 70s.

Travel Impact :plane: :truck: :drive:
No big delays today or tomorrow.

Any of you who are nervous about flying, especially related to turbulence, go here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/E162746321/index.html) and here (http://homepage.mac.com/lesposen/iblog/B80495344/C2128971884/index.html) to learn a lot about turbulence. Those two articles should be very helpful in allowing you to understand turbulence and flight safety when it hits. Hopefully all of this will help you relax and enjoy the trip to WDW more!

[steamboat willy]

Our dates are in the long range 9 - 19 and weather looks still good.:cool: Our MVMCP is on the 13th so I hope the weather remains clear on this evening. Still looks like our packing needs to be a combo of shorts and jeans, T- shirts and long, light jacket and pack the rain gear just in case. That sound right?

6 Days...:santa::tree::santa:

[Strmchsr]

That sounds about right for everything I'm seeing now. Very comfortable during the days and probably needing a light jacket or long-sleeve shirt after sunset.

[TinkerbellT421]

A good chance of rain arrives on Dec 12.

:pout::sad::sob: That's our christmas party date!

[Strmchsr]

:pout::sad::sob: That's our christmas party date!

No worries just yet. It's still voodooland which always changes.

[TinkerbellT421]

No worries just yet. It's still voodooland which always changes.

I'm hoping :D

[mouseketeer mom]

Oh come on. Make it warm Christmas week, puh'lease???? I'm coming from NJ!! And I'm already crazy overpacked.

[Dulcee]

We have tickets to the Christmas party on the 13th too. Stay away rain!!

[Catzle]

Coming from New York for the party on the 13th and leaving on the 16th. Would love, love, love temps in the 80's. Would love to swim until the party starts!

[lawgirl]

Oh no! So do we need to pack our ponchos for Sunday night?

[Strmchsr]

Oh no! So do we need to pack our ponchos for Sunday night?

I don't think so for Sunday night. Still trying to gauge how much rain might fall out of this approaching cold front Tuesday/Wednesday. The front moves in and could bring light scattered showers on Tuesday but then as it moves back north on Wednesday it looks more likely that a thunderstorm or two could form.

[Catzle]

So the 13th-16th, looks chilly and possibly rainy? Need to know what clothes to pack. UGH, was planning to swim. We were there in June for 11 days, rained 7 straight days, was hoping things would be different for our trip this time.

[Strmchsr]

So the 13th-16th, looks chilly and possibly rainy? Need to know what clothes to pack. UGH, was planning to swim. We were there in June for 11 days, rained 7 straight days, was hoping things would be different for our trip this time.

I'll give you a full update around noon CST today. On this morning's models the system has sped up. It looks like Wednesday will be rainy, but the 13th-16th should be mostly clear. Possibly a couple of light, spotty showers on the 13th, but nothing major. Also, it won't be really chilly. Upper 70s for highs. Lows in the low 50s so it'll be a little chilly at night, but that's to be expected in December. We'll see what the afternoon models show.

[Catzle]

Thanks!

[Catzle]

Ugh! Every day I look it get colder and colder :(.
Sunday is the best day, the day we fly out. Not sure we will be doing any swimming.

[babsmom]

We will be there the 15-21 with our MVMCP being the 18th ... sounds like we should bring ponchos for that!

[cuteduck223]

i love this forecast so much! (even more when i have a trip that falls within the dates).

[dwdart]

We get there on 2nd. I'm not going to like 30's.
I'm use to wearing shorts during our winter months. :confused:
I'll hope for lots of SUN!!! :thumbsup:

[Strmchsr]

Keep in mind Jan 2 is at the far end of voodooland. Anything beyond 7 days I'm not forecast, just reporting model data. 8-9 days ago models showed Christmas Eve and Day as being very cold, now that we're closer they'll be seasonal and not too cold at all. While it's possible, shorts in Jan at WDW may be hoping for a little much. It's not that warm of a winter. Long pants and short sleeves during the day with a light jacket at night is closer to probable.

[cer]

I know it is voodoo land still, but am I reading that right? Low's in the mid 70's Jan 10-11?

Running the marathon on the 13th so I am particularly interested in Sunday. I know, still very much voodoo land, but getting excited seeing my dates coming closer..... :)

[Strmchsr]

I know it is voodoo land still, but am I reading that right? Low's in the mid 70's Jan 10-11?

That's what it's looking like right now. As you said, it's voodooland so things can always change but for the moment it looks pretty comfortable. If I had to guess, given the overall pattern, I would say if it changes it would be more likely towards cooler than warmer.

[JabberJaws]

What kind of rain event is it looking like for Saturday (Dec. 29)? Talking scattered rain/storms or an all-day type thing? Planning on doing MK that day, but MK has fewer indoor attractions so if a lot of rain expected I may switch to Epcot.

Thanks!

[Strmchsr]

What kind of rain event is it looking like for Saturday (Dec. 29)?

Unfortunately, the model guidance page is down this morning. Not sure what's going on but I don't have access to any of the new model data. As soon as I do I'll update. As of last night it looks like the rain will start Saturday afternoon and be fairly heavy throughout the rest of the day. A good soaking rain. Epcot might be your better choice.

[JabberJaws]

Unfortunately, the model guidance page is down this morning. Not sure what's going on but I don't have access to any of the new model data. As soon as I do I'll update. As of last night it looks like the rain will start Saturday afternoon and be fairly heavy throughout the rest of the day. A good soaking rain. Epcot might be your better choice.

Thanks! I will keep an eye out for when the models are updated. I know that the NOAA site is now showing the rain moving in a bit earlier, with a 40% chance after midnight tomorrow and a 60% all day until 6 p.m. where it drops sharply to about 12%. Thinking that Epcot may be the way to go since most of the day may be off and on wet. We will stick to Sunday for MK.

[Strmchsr]

Thinking that Epcot may be the way to go since most of the day may be off and on wet. We will stick to Sunday for MK.

There's a lot of arguing between the GFS and the Euro models on timing so rain might not start until late Saturday or it might start early Saturday. I'm thinking lunchtime, but going with Epcot is the safer bet given the uncertainty.

[JabberJaws]

There's a lot of arguing between the GFS and the Euro models on timing so rain might not start until late Saturday or it might start early Saturday. I'm thinking lunchtime, but going with Epcot is the safer bet given the uncertainty.

Thanks! Yeah given the crowds expected and the fact we are only in the parks 2 days before heading over to Tampa for the Outback bowl, we are going to do an all day MK marathon (with a break or two) so don't want that interrupted by rain, so Sunday looks like the best bet. At least with Epcot most any of the attractions, shows, etc are indoors so easy to get out of the rain if it pops up.

[Tinkermom]

Thanks Chris! Sitting outside at Olivia's at OKW enjoying dinner. It is raining now. Do you think this could mean more of a chance of rain tomorrow morning? Citrus Parade starts at 10am. Packing ponchos just in case but hoping the rain holds off so our son's HS marching band gets to march!

[Strmchsr]

TDo you think this could mean more of a chance of rain tomorrow morning?

The rain tonight is the result of a little impulse out ahead of the front. It'll last an hour or two. The heaviest rain will stay north of WDW. The main rain band is still here in Alabama. It has sped up a good bit, though, so rain in the morning is possible. All indications had been it wouldn't start raining here until after midnight but the rain mass is here now so I was initially thinking around noon for the rain to start tomorrow, but it could come earlier. Definitely be prepared. I hope it'll still slow down a little as it hits Florida and let you get the parade in before it starts. Have fun!

[John and Becky]

Always love watching your weather updates for our upcoming trips. Don't really like the idea of rain on Jan 13th for the Marathon, but I know that is voodoo land.

Thanks,